The Texas Sharpshooter

I read a lot. Everything from fictional mysteries to nonfiction psychology books. In the course of all this reading, I frequently come across something that might also be seen as applying to poker, even though the concept occurs in a totally different context. This continues the series of columns that will illustrate how something from another area might be applied to poker.

The Texas Sharpshooter was a gentleman who fired his gun randomly at the side of his barn. He’d then walk over, find a cluster of two or three bullet holes, and draw a small circle around them. Then he’d add another few circles around that. An observer seeing the shots clustered in the center of the target would ‘deduce’ that the man was an excellent marksman.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a name given to researchers who find a random group of data points and draw an erroneous conclusion from them. The classic example of this was a study that attempted to find if living near a high voltage line caused an increase in any of 800 diseases. The study found that childhood leukemia was more than four times higher near high voltage lines. Unfortunately, the fact that so many illnesses were examined made it extremely likely that at least one would occur much more frequently than chance would suggest.

How does this apply to poker? One weekend, as you drive to your regular casino, the most convenient road is closed for construction. You take an alternative route and have a big win. The following night, the same thing happens. When you head back the next weekend, your regular road is now open, but you take the alternative route. Why? It produces better results.

In a recent cash game, a loose player correctly called a relatively tight one with a bluff catcher on the river. The tight player demanded to know how he could call. The caller responded, “I called because you bluff a lot.” Someone else interjected, “But he almost never bluffs.” To which, the caller replied, “He was due to bluff.”

If you watched the World Poker Tour tournament called the “Bad Boys of Poker,” a hand occurs between the two chip leaders, Gus Hansen and Antonio Esfandiari. Antonio raises, Gus reraises, and Antonio moves all-in. Gus hesitates for a second, says, “I have to call, I have ten-high,” and calls. Antonio flips up two red sevens. Gus rolls up 10 8 to the amusement and astonishment of the commentators, crowd, and the other players. Naturally, Gus wins the hand. Given their exact hands, Gus’ final call was okay. Given Antonio’s range for that shove, Gus’ call was extremely questionable (Although it did give him a wild image that he could have capitalized on by playing tight in cash games).

I could continue with more examples, but the lesson to take home is that you should avoid using random results, especially favorable ones, to justify your actions. Don’t be a Texas Sharpshooter. Make sure you know the target before you shoot, and learn how to hit it. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.