Bubble, Bubble, Toil, and Trouble

In poker tournaments, there are many different “bubbles” that players have to carefully navigate, trying to avoid trouble. Two particular bubbles occur in every tournament and are definitely magnified in larger buy-in events such as the World Series of Poker (WSOP) main event.

The money bubble is always an intense experience for players. Numerous short stacks are praying for the last elimination as they hold on to make the money. Once the money bubble bursts, the remaining players erupt into applause, rejoicing as they are now all guaranteed a paycheck.

The final table bubble is also a focal point, as the final nine players look to add to their personal statistics and their bank accounts. Additionally, the media spotlights these final nine players, especially during the WSOP main event with the November Nine.
However, in today’s unique world of poker, tournament structures have created other unique bubbles that did not exist in years past. In this new world, especially with re-entry events, multiple flights and massive prize pool guarantees, these newly created bubbles make players consider different situations.

Let me explain two of the most unique bubbles that I have encountered over the past couple of years on tour.

Note: Not all players consider these bubbles in the same manner, just as not all people consider the money bubble in the same way. Some players do not worry about cashing and would rather be eliminated prior to cashing if they deem the situation to be correct and profitable. Thus, the following situations are conditional on the player’s specific goals. If the player’s goal is to ensure a cash before trying to win the tournament, then these bubbles are situations that must be taken into consideration.

Seminole Hard Rock Poker Open $10 Million Guarantee (2013)

In the summer of 2013, the Seminole Hard Rock Poker Open (SHRPO) announced an incredible $10 million guarantee championship main event. Outside of the World Series of Poker (WSOP), prize pools of this immense size are extremely rare. Many industry pundits and professional players, including myself, were very skeptical that this tournament would reach its lofty goal. The $5,300 buy-in tournament would need 2,000 entries to meet the $10 million guarantee ($5,000 went toward the prize pool). Incredibly, the guarantee was not only met, but also smashed as SHRPO got 2,384 entries, creating a prize pool of $11.92 million. (Unfortunately, since August 2013, SHRPO has not fared as well with its guarantees.)

To attain this massive guarantee, the tournament was a re-entry event that had three starting flights. To increase the number of entries, Seminole Hard Rock held frequent satellites across several casinos for players to qualify. Eventually, several players even earned multiple seats into the main event. The SHRPO declared that if a player won up to three seats, he or she would have to register for the multiple flights. If he or she won more than three seats, then the player would be allowed to receive cash for any additional seats after the third one. Inevitably, this specific ruling created an interesting bubble during the SHRPO main event.

At the end of Flight 1A, a player who had won three satellite seats could face an interesting dilemma. Normally in a tournament, if a player is short-stacked, the common logic would be to try to double up before the end of the flight. If he or she was not successful, the player be eliminated and possibly play again in the next flight. However, in this specific situation, if the player survived Flight 1A, he or she would receive the two $5,300 seats in cash. Thus, this situation created a unique $10,600 bubble for the player. If the player was short-stacked, they could choose to hold on to survive the flight to “cash” in the other satellite seats. One player at our table discussed this and basically did not play a hand for the last hour.

To understand how significant a bubble it was, 338 players (approximately 15 percent of the field) would cash this event, receiving $7,500 for a minimum cash. However, by surviving Flight 1A, a multiple satellite winner would actually receive more than a min-cash. In fact, they would have to finish in at least 200th place ($11,635) to receive more money than two satellite seats. Thus, a newly-created bubble was generated by this unique situation.

WSOP Colossus (2015)

Earlier this year, the WSOP announced a historic event named The Colossus. Held on the first weekend of the WSOP, this $565 buy-in bracelet event would guarantee a $5 million prize pool, needing 10,000 entries to meet the guarantee. This WSOP event was a re-entry event with four flights, allowing players to re-enter multiple times. In the end, The Colossus was a tremendous success, not only meeting its guarantee, but obliterating it with 22,374 entrants and a $11.187 million prize pool.

To avoid the long registration lines and preparing for the worst-case scenario, I registered for all four flights prior to the event. During Flight 1A, I felt I was playing well until I lost a huge flip right before the last level of the flight: my 10-10 lost to A-Q when my opponent hit an ace on the river.

However, as the flight came to a close, I had fewer than ten big blinds. Typically, I would look for a good spot to double up. Not only did no spot arise, but an interesting dilemma also arose. If I survived Flight 1A, I would not have to play Flights B, C and D (each with a $565 buy-in) or the next day’s $1,000 no-limit Hyper Turbo WSOP bracelet event. Thus, this situation created a $2,695 bubble for myself. A minimum cash at 2,241st place would only be $1,096. Actually, I would have to finish at least 1,188th place to earn more than what I would have saved, which was $2,740.

Ironically, I was extremely fortunate to double up on the very last hand of Flight 1A when my pocket kings beat my opponent’s pocket nines, giving me about 17 big blinds heading into Day 2. In the end, I doubled up early in Day 2 and survived the money bubble, eventually being eliminated in 1,449th place. Amazingly, I still did not earn (I earned $2,125) as much as I saved for surviving Flight 1A.

This situation created another unusual money bubble, and if you even consider that I could have also played in the $10,000 2-7 Triple Draw Championship, the bubble could have been even better at $12,695.

Overall, as the world of poker develops new structures, formats, and huge guarantees, the tournaments will create unique bubbles that players will have to consider in the future. ♠

Bernard Lee is a poker columnist for ESPN.com, author of “The Final Table, Volume I and II” and radio host of “The Bernard Lee Poker Show,” which can be found on RoundersRadio.com or iTunes. Lee has over $2 million in career earnings, winning six titles. Lee is a team member of RunGoodGear.com, Team Pro for Blue Shark Optics and also spokesperson for specialty travel company, Blaycation. Follow Bernard Lee on Twitter or Instagram: @BernardLeePoker or visit him at www.BernardLeePoker.com