The Views of Luck

I was recently playing an Omaha eight-or-better session wherein luck broke my way two times. Of course, luck broke against me a time or two, but let’s talk about the good hands, shall we?

Playing at a full table, I called in a kill pot from the big blind with 88(32) with suited clubs. We went multi-way to the flop, as is often the case in this game, though only the small blind and the killer would be relevant in the hand. My hand isn’t great, but it’s certainly worth a look getting better than 7-1 with only one person to act behind me. The flop was 7-7-5 with two clubs and it checked to the killer, who bet. Only the small blind and I called. Turn was an offsuit jack and the action repeated. The river was the 8, admittedly pretty good for my hand. The small blind checked and I was deciding whether I was going to bet when the killer checked out of turn. I was about 90 percent decided that I was going to bet, but that sealed it. I bet, and both of my opponents called. I took the high and the small blind took the low with A-2 and no discernible high hand. The killer had A-7-3 with no clubs. This was almost an ideal situation for me, and I still had only 20 percent equity on the turn. Of course, I was getting the right price at all times against these particular hands (I haven’t run a range calculation yet, those are difficult to set up in Omaha), which isn’t the greatest determination of whether it was a good play or not, but I’ll take it as a stop gap for now.

Then, later in the session, playing four- or five-handed, I was dealt A 2 A 5, a pretty good starting hand. The cutoff raised, I three-bet from the button, and he called. The flop was an above-average A 8 3. He led, I raised, he three-bet, I four-bet, and he called. The turn was the 4, he checked and called. The river was an 8, he checked and called. I got to declare my hand as aces full and a wheel, perhaps the most fun thing to say in a game of Omaha hi-lo and I scooped the pot. My opponent, as it turns out, had 4-3-2 and a banana and hung in there. He muttered a little about how unlucky he got, and I stacked the chips. I had about 53 percent equity against his specific hand on the flop, and that’s pretty close to the worst shape I could possibly be in, besides being against hands like 2-4-5 and 2-4-5-6, especially if they have some clubs. So, it seems as though my flop aggression was warranted and my opponent’s luck was not quite as bad as it seems.

None of that is to say that, because my plays were justifiable or even quite clearly correct, that I didn’t get lucky. Of course I got lucky, especially in the first hand. I had a one-time 100 percent success rate for half the pot when I had about 20 percent equity. It was hard for me to scoop, but not impossible, just like in the second hand, even though my hand was so much more obviously stronger.

Luck is a factor in our game and it’s not always seen from both sides. Most of us notice it clearly when we’re getting unlucky but not so much when we’re getting lucky. Our wins are because we play so much better than our opponents and our losses are because we’re so much more unlucky than our opponents. I like to look at it this way: If I was in the other player(s)’ shoes, would I have played it differently? If so, then was my way better? If yes, and I got unlucky, then that’s still a good thing for me because my opponent was putting money in badly and it worked out for him. I am making money in the long run even though I lost it in the short.

If I would have played it differently and there’s a strong possibility my opponent’s play was better than mine would have been, then I’m losing money and even though I got lucky in this situation, that won’t always hold true and I need to work on improving that situation. In scenario A, I would have played both opponents’ hands the same way and I think they probably would have played mine the same way. I also can’t think of many better ways to play any of the hands that were in. In scenario B, I would probably have check-called flop with the intention of playing further streets possibly faster, especially if I improved. I think bet/three-betting is a pretty atrocious way to play the nut low with very few high possibilities in a heads up three-bet pot when out of position. I also think that my opponent would have played my hand the same way as I did. Since I think my way of playing his hand was better, and I think most would agree, I think I come out ahead in that situation.

So, yes, I got lucky twice. Once in a probably neutral to slightly positive EV situation and the other time in a very profitable situation both in terms of EV and the Tommy Angelo theorem of poker. Lucky doesn’t always look the same and it will do you well to recognize the different types of lucky that come around. ♠

Gavin Griffin was the first poker player to capture a World Series of Poker, European Poker Tour and World Poker Tour title and has amassed nearly $5 million in lifetime tournament winnings. Griffin is sponsored by HeroPoker.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NHGG