Bet-Sizing Tells On The Turn

On the forums at Red Chip Poker, a longtime limit hold’em player who is making the transition to no-limit posted a hand he was unsure about. He was playing $1-$2 with $200 stacks. Three players limped, and he checked 8-7 in the big blind. The flop came J♥ 10♠ 9♥, giving him the bottom end of the straight.

He bet $6 into the $8 pot, and two players called.

The turn was the 5♥, putting the flush on board. He checked, an opponent bet $12 into the $26 pot, the next player called, and he called also.

The river was a brick. He checked, it checked around, and his straight beat the other two players’ “junk”.

I feel like there are two important lessons in this hand. The first is that the player with the straight didn’t have to be as worried about a flush as he was.

When he bets this flop and gets called, each of the callers could have any of several hundred possible hands. They could hold K-Q, Q-8, 8-7, or a flush draw, but they could also hold A-J, K-J, K-10, J-9, Q-J, Q-10, Q-9, J-10, J-9, 10-9, J-8, 10-8, 9-8, Q-Q, J-J, 10-10, 9-9, and so on. And these are just the obvious hands. As anyone who’s played poker for a while knows, players can sometimes call the flop with almost anything, especially in a limped pot, and especially if it’s just $6.

So chances are, even with the flush coming in on the turn, he’s still probably ahead of each player. There are two opponents, so the chances he’s behind are roughly double what they would be against just a single opponent. But his straight is still a favorite to be the best hand. He didn’t need to be quite so concerned about the flush card on the turn.
But he checked. This is not necessarily a bad play, especially if you feel you can count on one of your opponents to bet.

Allowing your opponents to bet is an even better option if they will give you information with their bet sizing. I feel like the size in this hand likely contained some added information that should have helped the player holding the straight to make decisions.

The board is a very draw-heavy J 10 9 5, and it’s still a multi-way pot. Typically, a player with a good, but vulnerable hand would want to make a large bet on the turn. They’d be concerned about giving two opponents a cheap card that could beat them. On this board, a player with any hand except the nut flush should feel this pressure to bet large to “charge the draws.”

The $12 bet into a $26 pot is suspicious. While some $1-$2 players are so clueless they wouldn’t understand the pressure to bet larger in this situation, there’s clearly actionable information in the small bet size. The bet, while it could be the nut flush, is more likely to be a hopeful probe bet from a hand like Q-J.

There’s similar information in the second opponent’s choice merely to call the small bet rather than raise. With a strong hand, I would expect this second player to raise most of the time.

Therefore, I think it’s a raise when the action gets back to our hero. This is a board where players are likely to have draws and will want to call a raise to see a river card. A healthy raise will make the other players either fold live draws or pay for the river card.

When Bet Size Matters

I rely heavily on bet-sizing tells to make playing decisions. It’s not uncommon at all that I plan to raise if my opponent makes one bet size, but fold if he makes a different one.

One objection I hear from students about using bet-sizing information is that every player sizes differently, and what might mean weakness from one player could be normal for another.

I agree that this is true, however information need not be perfect to be useful. If you think a given bet size means weakness 70 percent of the time, often that is information worth acting upon, even if you expect to be wrong the other 30 percent of the time.

Beyond that, bet-sizing information becomes more reliable in certain circumstances. The most important case is the one in the above example, where the pot is multi-way and the board has draws on it. In these circumstances, few players who hold a legitimately strong hand are willing to let their turn go by without putting in a nice, big bet.

Put yourself in this situation. A preflop raiser opens to $20 in a $2-$5 game with $1,000 stacks. You call with 5-5. Two people call behind you. The big blind calls.

The flop comes 9 5 4. The big blind checks, and the preflop raiser bets $40 into the $102 pot. You decide to get tricky with your set and just call. One of the players behind you calls, and the other players fold. There’s $222 in the pot, with more than $900 behind.

The turn is the 7, putting a possible straight on board as well as a second flush draw. The preflop raiser checks. What are you going to do with your set?

You’re going to bet it, right? And not some flimsy $70 bet either. There’s plenty of money in the pot, and even more money behind, so the last thing you want is to give a cheap card to two players, one of whom might draw out with a flush or a gutshot straight. So you’ll bet a nice, imposing amount like at least $150 to protect your hand.

While there are exceptions to this thinking (there are always exceptions), most players will reliably protect strong hands in these situations with big bets. Which means players who make small bets typically fall into one of two categories.

1. They have the nuts.
2. They have weak hands and are probing for information.

Consider, for instance, if instead of 5-5 you hold 10-9 on this 9 5 4 7 board. The preflop raiser bets the flop, you call, and someone calls behind you. He checks the turn. You would probably bet to protect your hand from draws on the chance that you are ahead. But with just top pair, weak kicker, you would likely be unsure of your hand and unwilling to risk a lot of money on it. If you are like most players, you would shade your bet size smaller in this circumstance. You might bet perhaps $70 or $100 into the $222 pot. It’s enough to avoid giving a free card, but not so much that you will feel stuck if you get raised.

This is the tell. When players make the big bet, they are protecting strong hands. When players make the small bet in this situation, players are usually (but not always) testing the waters with a marginal hand.

Next time you play, look for this tell. It’s reliable, and you can use it to find some great plays. ♠

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the training site redchippoker.com.