Illusory Patterns In Poker

Wikipedia defines “illusion” as “a distortion of the senses, revealing how the brain normally organizes and interprets sensory stimulation.” Our rational brains may know that we can’t predict which cards will come, but our primitive brains believe that we can predict them. Our brains haven’t changed much since we lived in caves.

Our rational brains developed much later, are much weaker, and act much more slowly than our primitive brains. Our primitive brains don’t believe in randomness; they see patterns even where they don’t exist.

Poker authorities have stated, and mathematicians have proved, that – if they are shuffled and dealt properly – cards are utterly, absolutely random. Our rational brains may accept that fact, but our primitive brains evolved to detect patterns. If cave men didn’t quickly recognize dangerous patterns such as predatory animals, poisonous snakes, and hostile people, they would have died. We learned to see and react quickly to patterns long before anyone even suspected that randomness exists, and our primitive brains will never believe in it.

Why Should You Care?

You may think that evolutionary neurology is irrelevant. You’re not a cave man. You’re a smart poker player who knows that cards are random. You should understand because – whether you like it or not – your primitive brain will affect your decisions. Your primitive brain will see patterns where none exist, and these illusory patterns will cause costly mistakes.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that – because you’re a serious, studious player – your rational brain will help you to make far fewer mistakes than players who have much stronger beliefs in patterns and predictions. Their beliefs can easily be exploited.

We can see these illusory beliefs more easily in other people because we tend to be blind to our own weaknesses. For example, you’ve seen people change seats and ask for set ups, hoping to “change their luck.” You’ve heard people say that nines or hearts are “hot,” or that they’re “due to make a flush,” or that someone is “on a rush.”

You can see solid proof of randomness and people’s utter rejection of it much more easily in the pits than in the poker room. Baccarat players write down the cards, looking for patterns. Craps players bet heavily when they think the dice are hot. Roulette wheels show the last ten or twenty numbers, encouraging people to see patterns and bet foolishly.

Casinos keep extremely accurate records of roulette results. If a wheel isn’t random, smart players could easily beat it. Their records prove that the odds of red or black occurring are exactly the same regardless of what happened recently. But facts don’t stop people from betting on whatever they think is “hot” or “due.”

Doyle Brunson brilliantly exploits other people’s beliefs in rushes. “I know that scientists don’t believe in rushes… but they make about fifteen hundred a month… A big part of my winnings came from playing my rushes.” (Super System, Second Edition, p. 562).

I’m one of those scientists, and the evidence is overwhelming that rushes have no predictive value. The fact that you won the last hand, the last three, or the last five has absolutely no effect on your future cards. Not one scientist would disagree, but many people believe that cards run in streaks, that a rush (or its opposite, a cold streak) can influence later cards.

Why do most people believe in rushes? For the same reason that they believe in “hot dice,” use lucky charms, and consult astrologers: They’re so frightened by randomness that they deny its existence. Does Doyle believe that his past cards affect future ones? No way! He began According to Doyle: “Poker is a game of people. Don’t just play your cards, play your people.”

In Super System, he deliberately confused cause and effect. Rushes have made him lots of money, not because they really happen, but because other players believe they happen. Earlier in that book he wrote that he wins because his aggression frightens people, making them say, “Take it Doyle.” He even said on page 531 that, when he gets all his money into the pot, “I probably have the worst hand and am an underdog to win the pot.”

He “plays the rush” aggressively, not because he expects better cards, but because apparent rushes scare people, and he masterfully exploits that fear. It’s the difference between math and psychology. Cards are random, but people often behave predictably.

Are We Rational Decision-Makers?

Many poker authorities assume we are. They think we can become good players by simply learning how we should play. They’re ignoring the fact that our primitive brains will always affects our decisions. We can reduce these effects, but can’t completely eliminate them.

A critical first step to becoming more rational is to understand and accept the reality of our brain’s natural pattern recognition. Your Money and Your Brain reports solid evidence that our primitive brain:

“leaps to conclusions…

“is unconscious. Even if you think you are fully engaged in some kind of sophisticated analysis, your pattern-seeking machinery may well guide you to a much more instinctive solution.

“is automatic. Whenever you are confronted with anything random, you will search for patterns within it.

“is uncontrollable. You can’t turn this kind of processing off or make it go away… You have no idea you’re doing it, but this biological imperative forces your …brain into forecasting… whatever has happened most recently will largely determine what you think is most likely to happen next – even if, in reality, there’s no logical reason to assume that the recent past will have any impact on the future… you make predictions about future rewards largely with the more emotional, reflexive parts of your brain.

“We like to think that we’re ‘thinking’ when we estimate probabilities…but a surprisingly large portion of the process appears to occur automatically, below the level of consciousness.”

Recommendations

You probably dislike this research because it says that we’re all much less rational than we believe. But denying the reality of solid research is supremely irrational. If you doubt these conclusions, read the book and its underlying research. If you accept that the research is correct, what should you do differently?

Accept that you can’t be completely rational: Nobody is, and you have the same evolutionary history as everyone else.

Identify your triggers: The word, “triggers,” generally means events that cause negative emotions, but it also applies to thinking mistakes. Review your past mistakes and look for common elements. Which kinds of situations make you believe that you can predict the unpredictable?

Constantly monitor your own thinking: Whenever you make a mistake, ask why you made it. If you’re honest, you’ll find that some mistakes are caused by rejecting randomness and believing – probably unconsciously – that you can predict which cards will come.

In other words, don’t try, consciously or unconsciously, to predict the cards. Fight your primitive brain. Force yourself to accept and adjust to their absolute unpredictability.♠

“Dr. Al” ([email protected]) coaches only on psychology issues. For information about seminars and webinars, go to propokerseminars.com. He is David Sklansky’s co-author of DUCY? and the sole author of four poker psychology books.