Breaking Nines in Lowball

When do you break a 9 in lowball? That is one of the toughest decisions in the game. Obviously, if you have K-4-3-2-A and one person has stood pat and another has drawn one card, you draw a card. And most players realize that you break 10-4-3-2-A – a hand that in some situations can be considered pat – in this spot.

But what do you do with 9-4-3-2-A? Or, a 9-7? Ah, those hands are what make lowball an interesting game. Decisions like these don't come up in flop and stud games. You decided whether to continue with a hand and how to bet – whether to check, bet, call, raise, fold – when faced with a decision, but you can't influence the outcome of the hand. Lowball gives you one extra choice. You have all the betting choices, but you also can influence what your hand will be at the showdown by what you do on the draw. A pat 9-8 can end up a wheel – admittedly, that's a long shot – if certain circumstances convince you to discard both the 9 and the 8. More commonly, a pat 9 can become a wheel – or beat a hand it otherwise would have lost to – by discarding one card. If you're drawing dead in hold'em, too bad; there's nothing you can do about that. But in lowball, you can often change the outcome.

So, when do you break? That's best shown by example.

In a Southern California double-limit game, you usually break a 9 (that is, toss the 9 to draw to a better hand) against one or more opponents who are likely to be drawing to worse than your hand if you draw. That is, if you raise and get one opponent who draws a card, and your hand is a 9-6, 9-5, or 9-4, you should draw a card, also. You reduce your chances of winning by drawing, but you increase your chances of winning a big pot. That is, if you play a pat 9-6, usually the only betting after the draw is if your opponent bets and you reluctantly call. If he checks, you generally just show the hand down. But if you draw, you can make a hand that earns you two, three, or even more bets after the draw – and those are bets at the higher level.

If your one-card draw is likely to be worse than that of your opponent, of course, you don't draw. This is a mistake many players make. Aggressive Al opens for a raise. Mr. Fraidonynz reraises with his pat 9-7. Al goes one more bet. Mr. F. calls. Al draws a card. Mr. F., afraid that he'll have to call a bet, something that he doesn't want to do with a 9, now also draws. He has gone from being a favorite to an underdog in this situation, because once Al reraised, he was almost certainly drawing to better than Mr. F.'s 7 draw. If Mr. Fraidonynz's hand was, say, 9 7 6 2 A, he would have the best of it against any one-card draw, even if Aggressive Al was drawing to a wheel with the joker. Against specifically 4 3 2 joker, he would be the favorite by about 54.6-to-45.4. But if he drew a card instead, he would change to a whopping 3-to-2 underdog. But if he had a 9-4, including the joker, and Al was drawing to a 7-6, he would improve from being about a 60-to-40 favorite to 68.3-to-31.7 – and have the opportunity to win multiple bets after the draw.

Some players think that breaking a pat hand is gambling – compared to standing on a hand that can't bust – and never break nines, even when they can draw to a good hand. That's a mistake. Against multiple players who are drawing, standing versus drawing isn't even close. (That is, drawing is far superior as long you're drawing one card to a hand better than the others are likely drawing to.)

Mr. Fraidonynz always plays his hand wrong. If he's in the big blind and someone limps or raise-opens in Southern California, he raises or reraises with his 9-7. In Northern California, the opener just opens, of course, and Mr. F. raises. If the opponent comes back with one more bet, he always breaks a 9-7, and even a 9-8. Observant players know how he plays. If Sharp Sherm comes in for a raise and Mr. F. raises from the blind, Sharp Sherm raises back if he has a good one-card draw and just calls if he has a rough pat 8. This is because Sherm knows that Mr. F. rarely raises on the come but does put in one tentative raise with a 9, always breaks if reraised, and always stands if the original player just calls the raise. If Sharp Sherm is drawing, he of course wants Mr. F. to put in multiple bets with the worst of it instead of one fewer bet with the best of it, and he knows he can get Mr. F. to break by reraising. If Sharp Sherm has a smooth pat 9 or a rough pat 8, he knows he can get Mr. F. to stand pat on a worse hand than his by calling. Sure, Mr. F. has an 8 or even a 7 some of those times, but he never breaks those hands. So, some of the times Sharp Sherm puts in an extra bet when Mr. Fraidonynz has the best of it, but if Sherm makes a good hand, he gets at least one and sometimes two big bets after the draw. And sometimes Sharp Sherm stands pat on worse than Mr. F's pat hand, but he doesn't cost himself much. In these situations, Mr. Fraidonynz never bets worse than a 7, so Sherm knows exactly what to do with his hand.

Of course, against one player, if either of you is all in, you should probably not break any 9 against a one-card draw – because you can't win any more bets.

In a Northern California single-limit game, you are less likely to break a 9. This is mainly because the after-the-draw reward is not as high. Against two players each drawing one card, you usually should break a smooth 9 to draw to the better hand. Against two players, one drawing one card and the other with an unknown draw, again, you usually should break a smooth 9 to draw to the better hand. For example, if a player opens, you raise with 9-5, another player comes in cold behind you, and the first player draws a card, draw one, even though you don't know what the hitchhiker will do. The player behind you could stand pat, in which case you're often dead. He probably won't draw two cards – although you see that happen often enough. (Usually, the player coming in cold for the two-card draw flashes the joker to justify his poor play.) But even against a one-card and a two-card draw, you're better off drawing a card than standing pat. Again, if you or the one-card draw is all in, you can stand pat.

Wherein a single-limit game you would automatically break a 9-6 against two one-card draws, many good players don't in a double-limit game. Against two aggressive players, I probably would break the hand because of the future potential and because of the downside of very likely having to call bets. For example, against two aggressive players, after the draw you'll often see the first player bet and the second player call or raise, forcing you to throw your hand away. On the showdown, the first player shows that he paired and the second player called him with a 10. You threw away the best hand. But now let's say you call. The first player still has that pair and the second player called with a rough 8 – and you lost an extra bet. You make your decision much easier by drawing to a hand with which you can raise or more easily call – plus, you have the potential of winning a nice pot with multiple bets after the draw. Against two players who don't bet worse than sevens after the draw and don't raise with worse than smooth sixes, I would definitely stand pat.

And, by the way, in the situation previously cited, it's a lot easier to call with a 9 if you catch one back than if you stood pat with it. This is because your opponents are more likely to bet and call with bluffs and rough hands than if you stood pat. Lowball has a lot more nuances than players unfamiliar with the game are aware of.

So, the bottom line is, against one player drawing one card in Southern California, break a 9 to draw to a smooth hand; don't with a 9-7 or worse. Be less likely to break a 9 in Northern California, even against two players drawing one card each, but let that decision be determined by how aggressive they are. Don't break a 9 against one player drawing one card anywhere if either you or the other player is all in.