Unlucky? No!by Barry Shulman | Published: Sep 26, 2003 |
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I don't write much on strategy, but some recent interesting events scream for discussion. Besides, this is more about attitude.
Recently in a tournament, I observed a player with K-K in limit hold'em get knocked out by a K-5, and berate the winner on his way out. He later probably told everyone who would listen how unlucky he was.
I was going to say something about his manners, but it was on the Internet, and he probably had clicked off already.
The facts are that the loser was not unlucky at all, and because he's probably the type of person who blames others, he won't take the opportunity to upgrade his game. Here's the hand:
Seven players started the raised pot. Although the K-K is a favorite against all hands except A-A, he had only about a 38 percent win probability against the field.
The flop came J-10-X, all spades. Our friend's kings were both red. There was significant action from here on out, and the K-K stayed all the way. What could he possibly beat against seven players? Once the flop came down, his 38 percent chance dropped in half to about 19 percent against random hands.
However, there was quite a bit of action, which indicates that some of the random hands "hit" the flop. It is tough for the K-K to improve. There might be a flush made already, and even hitting a two-outer king might give somebody a straight, and one of the two available kings is a spade, which most likely will make a flush if there already isn't one made.
Forget the odds and all of the tough technical stuff. The flop was terrible for the K-K. He should have folded with all of the action. Worse than that, however, some people know they are beat and pay off to the end so they can moan about their K-K losing to K-5 (of spades). It's as if they would rather prove how unlucky they are, instead of saving three more bets and staying in the tournament.
If you want to be a winner, don't pick up that terrible habit.
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