Hand Versus Situation

They say you learn more from losing than from winning. So, there probably is a valuable lesson in the following. You be the judge.

The overall perspective:

Seven players at the final table of a huge Omaha high-low tournament (400-plus started) have been playing for more than four hours. The chip leader has more than $50,000, the second-place man has about $30,000, three players have about $15,000, and two stragglers are in four figures and about to have problems with the $2,000-$4,000 blinds. Then, to the delight of the five lowest players, the chip leader and No. 2 man went to war, with the result being that the No. 2 man was suddenly eliminated! Obviously, he made a big mistake, since he probably could have cruised into the big money. Right?

What happened:

I was that No. 2 man. I picked up A 3 K 5, probably the best all-around hand that I held the entire tournament – and even better with only seven players (making A-2 less likely).

Since the game had tightened dramatically at the higher limits, about half the hands ended with a raise before the flop. Although there was something to be said for simply calling from first position and shooting it out with a crowd, I was more interested in a safe, uncontested win. So, I made it $8,000 to go. If someone did call, I had a good hand.

The chip leader, who was in the small blind, was the only caller. The flop came J 7 5. He checked to me. With the nut-flush draw and a second-nut low draw (and a small pair), I had a clear bet. I belonged in this pot, maybe he didn't – no free cards. He thought for a moment, and called.

The turn card was the 10. It was not a good card, but it did give me an additional draw to make the nut straight with a queen on the last card. He checked to me. I thought it was right to bet again, as he might fold. But he checked-raised, making it $16,000! Did he really have a 9-8? Even if he did, I could still make the nut flush or a higher straight. Or, I could get half the pot with a low card. I certainly had to call. The last card was a king. I called his bet with my last $2,000, just in case my kings up were good. But, he had the 9-8, so I was out!

What could (should?) have happened:

In first position, because the chip leader was in the big blind, I might have simply called and seen the flop. But then, I certainly did like the flop, and certainly would have either bet or called any bet that was made.

In that scenario, the least I could have lost on that hand was $12,000:

(1) if I simply called the $4,000 before the flop,

(2) if it were checked around after the flop,

(3) if I called the $8,000 turn bet, and

(4) if I read him right and folded after the last card.

This would have left me reasonably well off with $18,000. But all of that is based on taking a very negative view of the hand (which happened to be right this time). On other occasions, taking a negative view might let in other players who might beat me, when raising would win the pot.

Because of the way things were going at that table (most preflop raises were being folded around), I still believe it was right to raise before the flop and get the best odds of winning the hand quickly. And once the flop came, I was actually a 2-1 favorite to win the hand (simulating both hands on Caro's Poker Probe). So, betting after the flop was probably clear, not just from a value standpoint alone, but also because whenever you are on a drawing hand, you should not object to your opponent folding, since you might not hit.

So, even with 20-20 hindsight, my first two actions on this hand were probably correct.

My big mistake on the hand (especially from a results point of view) was betting the turn – thus opening up the $16,000 check-raise. It might be correct to make that double bet in a live-action game, because I had good potential and my opponent might fold, but in this specific tournament situation, the extra vigorish that I might gain by betting (and his folding) was small compared to the disaster of running into a check-raise. Had I checked there, I probably would have called his last bet (with kings and fives) and had $10,000 in chips left. Or, possibly, I might have read him right and saved the $8,000 river bet and escaped with $18,000 left – the same amount I would have had in the above unrealistic scenario.

So, there's the lesson: It's almost always right to take the percentage initial action and bet a good hand before the flop, and usually bet it after any good flop. But then, because of the overall situation and the possibility of big danger in the fourth card, it would have been wiser not to press with a bet. Then, if I didn't like the last card, I would have simply let the hand go – and live to fight another day. In poker tournaments, you sometimes simply have to keep your eye on your remaining chips and the overall situation before you make a big move.