Early-Season Percentage Spots in College Hoops

With the college football season winding down to fewer and fewer games, it's time for handicappers to begin shifting their focus from "king" football toward the always fascinating college basketball season. Not surprisingly, some of the best wagering opportunities in college hoops present themselves before the start of full-time conference play in January. Let's take a look at some of them.

Teams with veteran point guards: Most coaches will tell you that aside from a dominating all-star scorer, what they desire most on their teams is a seasoned point guard who controls their offense and sets the tempo on defense. The coaches know – and handicappers should, too – that inexperience and/or ineptitude at point guard is going to require lots of adjustments on their team. We all know that the best point guards are virtually extensions of the coach on the floor. Experience at the prime ball-handling position helps limit turnovers. Veteran points can quickly handle adjustments called in from the bench. Most importantly, they get the ball to the right teammate at the right time and generate high-quality shots or easy scoring opportunities. Coaches know that bad shots are virtually the equivalent of turnovers, often leading to easy opponent baskets at the other end of the floor. The first thing I ask myself when handicapping a college team is, "Who is the point guard?"

Teams with experienced depth: This is another big edge early in the season. And it's particularly so in the 21st century, when there are tighter scholarship limitations in college and more players transferring each season because they get so easily disenchanted if they're not getting the minutes of playing time they think they deserve. The result is that the majority of college teams do not have experienced depth, even if the backups are less-talented, somewhat-limited players. Coaches love hardworking veteran reserves who know their roles, whether those roles be defense, rebounding, shooting, free-throw shooting, or ball-handling/passing. In early-season games, it is a big advantage for a team if its subs take the floor against a team full of newcomers who are still learning their roles and becoming familiar with one another as teammates. Teams with experienced depth can extend leads late in games.

Intersectional home teams with a big class difference: It's no secret that "haves" usually control the scheduling in pre-conference games. The "have-nots" usually have to go on the road if they want to play some of the "big boys" and pick up a nice, fat check to boost their own program. While you must always be aware of the several highly accomplished smaller programs that relish challenging the big boys, it's more often the case that the smaller school has fewer big-time recruits, less quickness, less depth, and more walk-ons. If it doesn't have enough scoring power, the less-talented team can be at a big disadvantage, particularly if it is playing far away from home in an arena it has never seen. If the underdog falls behind early, it might never catch up. And the coach of the superior team usually doesn't mind running up the margin at the end, especially if the visiting coach understood beforehand that his team's role was to be the noble, but pre-agreed, victim.

Quality teams hosting their own holiday tournaments: This is much like the situation just described. In the many four-team, two-game tournaments from Thanksgiving through New Year's, the host team usually chooses the field and sets the matchups. The tourneys were engineered months ago for the host team to advance to the final and to have a good chance to win it. Many of the referees, especially the younger ones – usually unconsciously – tend to go with the flow. Good teams hosting their own tourneys tend to win and cover in the final against beatable foes.

There is a greater chance for upsets in games on neutral floors: It's in this category that favored teams will often take victory for granted and capable underdogs will be fired up to try to make a name for themselves. Don't be overly influenced by early-season sportswriters polls. Sportswriters tend to vote for teams that "have done it before" rather than search out the midrange teams that are ready to move up. In fact, good teams that are either low-ranked or just out of the polls are often the best underdog plays early in the campaign.

Remember, every new season is different, the coaches are still learning about their new players, and each game is an entity in and of itself – its own unfolding reality drama. There is no fail-safe formula. But if you look for the right team at the right price in the right high-percentage situation, you'll win your share.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.