Come-Betting on the Turn

In two recent columns, I discussed come-betting after the flop in Omaha high-low. Are there situations in which it is right to bet a come hand after the turn? A "come hand" or "drawing hand" is an incomplete poker hand that requires a specific card to make it valuable – for example, having four spades, a fifth spade would be needed to make a flush.

When you have a come hand after the flop, there are two cards yet to come; hence, you have two chances to make your hand. But after the turn (fourth card), there is only one more card coming, so you are only about half as likely to hit your draw as you were after the flop.

However, there are circumstances in which it is right to bet or raise with a come hand after the turn. The frequent "two-way raise" situation occurs when you have a nut draw in one direction and a not-so-good made holding in the other direction. You might judge that an aggressive bet or raise will likely reduce the competition and increase your chances of backing in to win in the latter direction. But then there are times when your come hand has so many winning cards to hit that it seems correct to bet or raise on sheer value alone.

One such hand occurred while I was playing in an impressive $6-$12 Omaha high-low game at The Bicycle Casino. I was dealt the A 4 K 10. An A-4 hand is often playable in a loose Omaha high-low game if the ace is suited, especially if the other two cards are useful.

I called what was then five-way action, and the player on my left joined the fray with a preflop raise. The flop came a very nice Q-3-2 offsuit, with one diamond and one spade. Several players checked around to me. Since I clearly belonged in this hand with my nut-low draw, I bet.

The player on my left immediately raised. This really did not fit into my game plan, since there might have been more callers without the raise. The big blind called, as did I. In retrospect, if I had been more certain that he would bet, I would have checked, since nut draws like more paid admissions.

In three-way action, the turn card was the intriguing J, giving me 10 cards for the nut straight (three aces, two kings, two tens, and three nines) plus nine diamonds for the nut flush. And, I still had the nut-low draw. The big blind checked to me. Since I strongly suspected the raiser would bet, I checked to him. Sure enough, he bet. The big blind called.

If you were in my position, would you now call or raise?

I couldn't resist raising on pure value!

Of the 44 outstanding cards, only 13 would be losers (two deuces, two treys, three fours, three jacks, three queens). All of the other 31 cards give you the nuts in at least one direction, and 14 of those give you whole-pot nuts (although some may tie). You make the nut flush more than 20 percent of the time, the nut straight about 30 percent of the time (not counting when you flush, also), and the nut low about 36 percent of the time. The bottom line is, on average, you expect to win more than half the money in the pot. So, it must be a good investment to put more of your money into the pot if two other players also are putting in the same amount.

On the actual hand, the last card was the 6. The player on my left raised me with his nut low and he and the big blind were both stuck for my reraise. Oddly enough, it turned out that everyone had an A-4, so I ended up with two-thirds of the pot, and they each got one-sixth.

Is there a good rule of thumb as to how many winning outs you need to make come-betting or raising on the turn profitable? Not really. There are many variables, such as how many of the outs are two-way wins or likely to be tied, and how many players are expected to call. Generally, if you have more than half the deck working for you and at least several two-way cards and several likely callers, you are probably in a positive return situation.

My tendency is that unless the situation is very clearly positive, as it was on this hand, I simply call unless, in addition to my low, I have a fragile high holding that might win if I raise aggressively and force out one or more of the crawlers. This possibility, when added to the percentages of hitting the draw, often makes the aggressive bet or raise after the turn a winning action.