Going High With a Two Low-Card Flop

In a lively $15-$30 Omaha high-low game, you crawl into four-way action with K-10 suited, A-Q. Note that it would be incorrect to raise before the flop with a high-only hand, since you want as much company as possible, and you know that you will be folding on more than two-thirds of the flops.

The flop comes A-K-3 rainbow. You have top two pair. Should you like this flop? Not really, but it is marginally playable. Whenever there are two low cards in the flop and you have a high-only hand, a low will be made about three-fourths of the time; thus, you are usually playing for only half the pot. The good news is that with three opponents who are more often playing low cards than high, you figure to win high well over half of the time, especially if your bet or raise after the flop drives one or more players out.

In round numbers, which improve slightly if the flop gives you a backdoor-flush draw, your overall expectation is about one-third of the money in the pot. That includes the fact that you will scoop the pot (no low, and you win high) about one time in six. Thus, with the starting pot of four-plus small bets, if you subsequently put an average of six more small bets into the pot (one or two after the flop), the average pot size will be about 21 small bets (see below), and you will win one-third of that, or seven small bets. Thus, your approximate average expected win for staying with the hand is about one small bet (six minus five).

A slightly more thorough look at estimating your average expected win is this: If you assume you put in an average of six more small bets (you raise after the flop and someone bets the next two rounds), with slightly fewer than two callers on average, the pot will be about 21 small bets. If you play the hand six times, you will scoop it once, winning 15 (21 – 6) small bets. You will win high (for half the pot) about 40 percent of the rest of the time (two hands), or 10.5 – 6 × 2 = 9 small bets. On the other three hands, you will lose six small bets each, or 18 small bets. Thus, 15 + 9 – 18 = + 6; you will win an average of one small bet per hand, the same result as above.

Note, however, that it is correct to bet after the flop or raise if there is a bet on your right to help narrow the field. If the turn card (the fourth card) makes a low on board, your betting days are through. And there are some scenarios when opponents are raising and a wheel is probable that you should actually fold.

But if the turn card does not make a low and is not too scary (such as another 3), you probably want to bet the turn, especially if you think someone might fold. You will probably never bet the river with this hand unless you hit your full boat (the odds of hitting an ace or king on the last card are 11-1).

If you are not well-versed in the theory of playing high-only hands in Omaha high-low (a highly profitable endeavor), I recommend that you read the "Going High" section of my new book, How to Win at Omaha High-Low Poker (Cardoza Publications).

For example, regarding the general concept of betting after the turn, having previously bet the flop, allow me to quote myself (Page 129):

"Note that just because you drive after the flop 'at the drop of a hat' does not mean that you will continue to drive on fourth street (at the larger bet limit), especially if a scary card turns. You must learn to be very sensitive to signs that advise you to stop driving, particularly on fourth street. And there are certain 'one shot' or 'back-off' type hands that you do not plan to bet on fourth street unless you improve (as is the case with most 'combination hands'). There is no dishonor in a quick retreat and prudent fold."

Thus, the bottom line with a high-only hand in which there are two low cards in the flop and you have a respectable high holding such as a set or high top two pair is that it is usually only marginally positive. Of course, you can improve your odds with aggressive play after the flop, and by recognizing danger when a low is made on fourth street, especially with a wheel-making card. It is usually right to fold a double-size bet and raise on fourth street.

Remember that most of your average expectation after the flop comes from hands with which you scoop the pot. Thus, when a low is made on fourth street, the "quick retreat and prudent fold" may be best. All in all, I think the proper characterization of this situation is "handle with care."