Dealing With Line Moves in College Hoops

Perhaps the most frequent question I get from readers at my home base of The Gold Sheet is, "The line has moved; what should I do?"

The answer is neither obvious nor simple. In the first place, most of the action in basketball occurs on the day of the game. In football, lots of wagering is done four, five, six, and sometimes even seven days before the game (although there is still heavy action the day of the game). Also, unlike years long past, the linemakers are more willing to move the spread on games. They thus open themselves to some arbitrage, but insiders have told us that arbitrage concerns them on only a few of the many college games on the board each week.

Here are a few hints that might help you deal with changing pointspreads in college basketball:

Gird yourself not to be surprised by the opening number. If a team records an impressive, wide-margin win, or scores a big upset, or looks great during a national TV game, don't be surprised if the opening pointspread on the next game is a bucket or two higher than you had hoped. The oddsmakers are just trying to neutralize some of the anticipated increased action on the game. It's not their business to make things easy for the bettors.

Use power ratings to help you identify line value or possible "situations of importance" in a game. Power ratings give you a reference point from which to base your handicapping. They can help you track the oddsmakers' line adjustments from game to game. They can help you identify possible injury or suspension situations of which you were not aware. Most importantly, they can give you perspective on the teams that day with whom you're getting extra line value, and those with whom you're giving up line value. Always use the latest power ratings. If you don't keep your own power ratings (as most professional handicappers do), there are numerous sources, including those I use each week in The Gold Sheet.

Wager early to avoid many line moves, unless you're hoping to take advantage of an expected move. Many wagering outlets offer overnight action in college basketball these days, at least for limited-size wagers. If you have the time, you should do your college hoops handicapping at least a day in advance in order to take full advantage of these early numbers. If you don't have the time or inclination to do that, try to wager early in the day. Once sportsbooks find out which teams the public likes best, they're liable to move the spreads on those games. And, of course, it's best to wager early enough to avoid the seemingly increasing flurry of action that occurs within an hour or so of the starting time of most games, unless you have already decided that the wager you want is one that is going against the public opinion. Here's one other proviso: It is not so necessary to wager early on games that don't involve widely followed teams. The numbers on most games involving teams from the lower-echelon leagues usually don't vary much through the day, until near game time.

If you get the "number" you've been hoping for, bet it. If you are disappointed with an early pointspread, you can either pass or make just a partial wager, hoping for a favorable line move so that you can complete your wager. If the line moves in your favor, be sure everything is OK (injuries, suspensions, travel, and so on), and then go ahead and extend your action. If the line moves against you, stick with your partial wager. Few professional handicappers will increase the size of their wager on a pointspread that is less favorable than their original bet, especially if the line crosses an important number (for example, 2 or 3 in a what figures to be a hard-fought basketball game).

The "wise guys" are not always so wise. The so-called "wise guys" are those who come in with substantial wagers about midday or later. According to the wise-guy myth, they have learned something about a player, team, or game that gives them a great chance to win, so you should follow them, even though you might not know the exact reason. Our research shows that the wise guys, especially in hoops, are "wise" at about a 50-50 rate. Some years, the wise guys do a little better than that in football. Generally speaking (but not always, however), the really smart money is the early wagering, especially in Nevada. Most of those wagers are made by hard-working pros who handicap in advance, know what they're looking for, and get up early in order to get favorable numbers. Operators of sportsbooks will usually tell you that those pros are the real wise guys. Sportsbooks will often move a line because of one of their small wagers than they will because of a much larger wager made later in the day by someone whose track record they respect much less.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.