Staying Out of Trouble

One of the many differences between a good player and a mediocre player is that when the good player sees dark clouds on the horizon, he doesn't always wait until the storm hits before paddling to safety. The ability to duck out of a bad situation despite having a promising hand and escape at minimal cost is one of the reasons good players show a nice profit over the course of a year. The following five hands were taken from live-action middle-limit play, and illustrate some of these hazardous situations. Although the answer to each problem is to fold, I think there are benefits to be had in reviewing the rationale.

Hand No. 1 ($20-$40 game): You are in the big blind with the 7 4. Two early-position players, two middle-position players, the button, and the small blind call. You get a free play. There is $140 in the pot and seven players.

The flop is the K Q 3. The small blind checks and you check. An early-position player bets, a middle-position player calls, and the button raises. The small blind cold-calls. What should you do?

Answer: You should not cold-call a bet and a raise on the flop with a small flush draw in a large field like this. Given all of these players who are willing to call a bet and a raise to see the turn when a two-flush flops makes the likelihood of someone else being on a flush draw quite high. When this happens, not only is it harder for you to make a flush, but anyone else who's on a flush draw almost certainly has a bigger draw than you. The threat of drawing dead is quite real. In the actual hand, the player stayed all the way to the river and made his flush, only to be shown the nut flush by the small blind. There's nothing like drawing dead and getting there.

Hand No. 2 ($30-$60 game): You are in the small blind with the 9 9. An early-position player calls, a middle-position player raises, and everyone else folds to you. You call, as does the big blind. There is $240 in the pot and four players.

The flop is the Q J 8. It is checked to the raiser, who bets. What should you do?

Answer: There is $270 in the pot and it costs you $30 right now to call. On the surface, you might believe that you have lots of outs, with any 10 making a straight, any 9 giving you a set, a diamond giving you a flush draw, and so forth. But your "outs" are a mirage. A 10 means that anyone with A-K or K-9 has you beat. Even someone with another 9 has you tied. Therefore, your one-card gutshot-straight draw is actually quite weak. A 9 puts four parts to a straight on the table, giving anyone with a 10 in his hand a straight. Your backdoor-flush draw is nowhere near the nuts. Anyone who happens to have a big diamond in his hand would have you beat. In fact, you have no nut draws at all.

In the actual hand, the player called, as did the big blind. The early-position player folded. The turn was the 10. The player bet his straight and got called by the big blind and then raised by the preflop raiser. He called, as did the big blind. The river was a blank. It was checked to the preflop raiser, who bet. The player made a crying call, as did the big blind. The preflop raiser won, having the A K for the nuts on the turn. The big blind had the J 9. The player lost an extra $210 by playing the hand out.

Hand No. 3 ($10-$20 game): You raise from early position with the 10 10 after another early-position player has limped in. A middle-position player calls and another middle-position player reraises. The cutoff and button fold, but everyone else calls. There is $180 in the pot and six players.

The flop is the 5 4 2. Both blinds check. The early-position player now bets. What should you do?

Answer: Despite having an overpair, you have some serious problems here. The board is highly coordinated with a two-flush. You are being bet into with a preflop reraiser yet to act and other players still in the hand. If the preflop reraiser has an overpair, it is probably bigger than yours and he will definitely raise. If he has an A-K that includes a club, he may well raise. You can't expect to see another card for just $10. Raising will not drive out anyone you can beat, nor will it drive out any legitimate draws. I think folding is right.

In the actual hand, the player raised with his overpair and got reraised. It got capped back to him and he found the good sense to fold. It ended up being a huge pot, with bets and raises on every street. The early-position player won the hand when he made a club flush on the river, having the A 9. The preflop reraiser had the K K.

Hand No. 4 ($20-$40 game): You are in the small blind with the 6 5. An early-position player, a middle-position player, and the cutoff limp in. You also limp in. There is $100 in the pot and five players.

The flop is the 10 2 2. It is checked to the early-position player, who bets. The middle-position player calls and the cutoff folds. You call, as does the big blind. There is $180 in the pot and four players.

The turn is the A. It is checked to the early-position player, who bets. The middle-position player raises. What should you do?

Answer: There is $300 in the pot and it costs you $80 right now to call. This is pot odds of less than 4-to-1. You have nine outs, which is 37-to-9 against. However, the open pair on board coupled with two players betting and raising could mean one of your outs is killed (that is, the A), and even a second out could be killed if it pairs the side card of one of the players who has trips or two pair. You may have only seven or eight outs. There is also the possibility that you are drawing dead, because someone may already have a full house. Finally, who is to say when the raising will stop?

Hand No. 5 ($20-$40 game): You are in early position with the A A and raise an early-position player. Two middle-position players call, as does the early-position limper. There is $190 in the pot and four players.

The flop is the 10 7 6. The early-position player checks, and you bet. The first middle-position player raises and the next middle-position player reraises. The early-position player folds. What should you do?

Answer: You are either badly hurting or buried. You have no outs against a straight, and would have to catch two perfect cards on the turn and the river. You have two outs against a set, and five outs against two pair. If one of your opponents is on a flush draw, one of your outs is killed, and if not, redraws are created. Even if by some miracle you are in the lead, you will still lose about a third of the time against a flush draw or against someone with a pair and a gutshot draw. Finally, it could get raised again after you call. You should fold.