Trends and Angles in the NFL Preseason

I've mentioned before that wagering on NFL exhibition games can be both fun and rewarding. The sharp handicapper will inevitably find a few games every preseason that are more predictable than those in the regular season. And, after months without football, it can be very enjoyable to finally be able to wager again on the individual minidrama that a good football game often can become, preseason or not.

I have also frequently mentioned that I am not a big fan of handicapping strictly on technical trends. That's because they represent what has happened in the past and, so frequently, they don't do well in predicting the future. In fact, it is important for you handicappers to quickly discard and clear your minds of a previously useful trend once it is no longer representative of a team's or a league's performance.

But trends can be handy if they keep on working, and knowledge of them can be helpful in identifying rising or declining teams early in turnarounds. With those thoughts in mind, here are some trends and angles that might be worth watching this preseason.

Overall trends: Teams that start the preseason 0-2 straight up were only 4-5 vs. the spread last year when facing teams not in the same situation. However, over the past six years, 0-2 teams are 19-14 vs. the spread when not facing 0-2 or 0-3 teams, and they're 59 percent over the last 16 years.

A declining trend is the old "team with a game under its belt" vs. a team playing its first exhibition game. Such "game under the belt" teams were only 3-4 vs. the spread last year, 6-12 the last three years, and 17-21 the last seven years.

Some handicappers love to play "unders" in early preseason games, figuring that both teams will be "vanilla" on offense, will use regulars only briefly, and will play lots of rookies and first-year men. However, the opposite has been true in recent years, as there have been 64 "overs" and 48 "unders" in the prelim and first full week of preseason play over the last six preseasons.

Arizona: New coach Dave McGinnis is eager to reverse the team's "loser's mentality" and to restore respectability and enthusiasm. However, the Cards are only 4-10-1 as an underdog the last five preseasons.

Atlanta: Partly due to Dan Reeves' meticulous preparation, and partly due to his ornery nature, Reeves' Falcons are 8-3 as a preseason dog and 5-2 vs. the spread after an exhibition loss.

Baltimore: Under the glib, but wise, Brian Billick, the Ravens are a terrific 8-0 straight up in preseason, 7-1 vs. the spread, and 4-0 as a dog. And Billick has more firepower this year with Elvis Grbac and others.

Buffalo: New coach Gregg Williams (from the Titans) is installing a new offense and defense. However, the Bills long ago shed their "don't care" attitude in preseason and have gone 10-2 vs. the spread in their last 12 games on the road, 9-4 in their last 13 games as a dog, and 5-2 vs. the spread after a loss the last five years.

Carolina: George Seifert was "skunked" (0-4) in the preseason last year, and is 0-5 as a dog and 0-4 vs. the spread on the road in preseason in Carolina.

Cincinnati: They have a new coach in Dick LeBeau, but they were only 3-9 as a dog under Bruce Coslet.

Cleveland: They have a new coach in Butch Davis, and are 3-1 vs. the spread in home games at their new stadium.

Dallas: They're 5-23 vs. the spread (2-14 when favored) the last six preseasons, regardless of the coach.

Denver: The well-coached Broncs are 13-1 straight up (9-3-2 vs. the spread) in their last 14 games at home, and 4-1 after a straight-up loss. They have a new stadium this year.

Detroit: They have a new coach in Marty Mornhinweg, and were 3-12-1 vs. the spread in the last four preseasons under dour Bobby Ross.

Green Bay: The Packers are 11-1 straight up and 8-4 vs. the spread in their last 12 games at home, and 10-4-1 in their last 15 overall when favored.

Indy: Mora's teams are 11-6-1 vs. the spread in their last 18 games after a loss.

Jacksonville: Tom Coughlin might have personnel questions this preseason, but he's 12-3-1 vs. the spread the last four years, 10-3 when favored, and 6-2 after a straight-up loss.

Kansas City: Dick Vermeil, who likes to use preseason games as a teaching vehicle, was only 6-6 straight up and vs. the spread in three preseasons in St. Louis (and only 14-19 straight up back in his days with the Eagles).

Minnesota: The good-offense, weak-defense Vikes have gone "over" in nine of their last 10 exhibitions.

New England: The Pats are 7-3 vs. the spread in their last 10 games at home, and, thanks partly to Bill Parcells, 12-4 in their last 16 when favored.

New Orleans: They're 10-5 in their last 15 games as a dog, and 7-2 vs. the spread in their last nine after a straight-up loss.

N.Y. Giants: They're 4-12 straight up and 6-10 vs. the spread under Fassel.

N.Y. Jets: They have a new coach in Herman Edwards, and have covered nine straight vs. the Giants!

Oakland: Jon Gruden is 6-2 straight up and vs. the spread.

Philly: Andy Reid is 4-1 vs. the spread after a straight-up loss.

Pittsburgh: Bill Cowher is 8-2-1 vs. the spread in the team's last 11 games at home.

San Diego: They're 11-3-1 in their last 15 games as a dog, regardless of the coach.

San Francisco: They're 2-7-1 as a favorite under Mariucci (0-5 when laying more than three points).

Seattle: They were 10-2-1 as a dog, 9-2-1 as the visitor, and 7-0 vs. the spread after a loss, until falling off in all categories last year.

Tampa Bay: They're 5-1-2 in their last eight games as a dog, and scored 31 points per game at home the last two years.

Tennessee: Jeff Fisher rarely goes all out to win in the preseason, using lots of vanilla offense and very few of his pet twists and stunts on defense. They're 0-5 in their last five games overall when laying more than three points, but were 3-1 straight up and vs. the spread overall last year.

Washington: Schottenheimer was only 19-22 straight up and 15-23-3 vs. the spread in 10 preseasons in Kansas City.

Chuck Sippl is senior editor of the handicapping newsletter, The Gold Sheet. For more insights and advice on sports betting, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand, beginning with preseason football in early August. The Gold Sheet focuses on team chemistry, insider reports, key statistics, pointspread trends, and its widely followed power ratings. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to receive a complimentary sample copy with no obligation, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and state that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.