Defending Your Blind in Omaha High-Low

While playing in a $50-$100 Omaha high-low game at the Taj in Atlantic City, I was in the $50 big blind and picked up the 9 7 4 2.

Note, first of all, that this game was not a typical loose Omaha high-low game, in which five or more players call to see the flop. These higher-stakes Omaha high-low games seldom have well-attended pots. Most frequently, there is a raise before the flop, and most players fold – somewhat resembling high-stakes hold'em games.

As usual, one of my seven opponents raised before the flop (a rather tight player), and everyone folded around to me. Because I had three low cards, and because the two-suitedness of my cards adds more than 7 percent to my expectations, I decided to defend my blind heads up.

If my opponent raised with an ace and one or more other prime low cards (most typically, an A-2), and if I were going all in (that is, playing the hand out to the end), this particular blind hand would win the confrontation about 40-plus percent (low to mid 40s) of the time.

But although I would win 40-plus percent of the time if I played the hand to completion, I normally would not be "all in," and would win this confrontation less than one-third of the time, because I'd often have to fold after seeing the flop. In making the critical decision to continue after the flop, I had to be well aware that a tight before-the-flop raiser often has an A-2 or pocket aces (but A-2 occurs almost three times more often than pocket aces).

This time, I happened to hit a good flop, 8 5 3. I had a flush draw and my low cards meshed well with the board's low cards (and my opponent might have counterfeited a 3). But note that if my opponent did have an A-2, I was still an underdog (according to Caro's Poker Probe, my expectation would be about 45 percent).

Since I was acting first, I saw no reason to bet this low flop – since he surely would. I checked, he bet, and I called (there was now $325 in the pot). The Q (flush) hit the turn. I checked, and he bet the $100. Should I raise?

I don't think so. Although I was fairly likely to win at least half the pot, my judgment was that I was more likely to lose the whole pot than win the whole pot. It was rather likely that he had either an A-2 or an A-4, which meant I would need an ace on the last card to win low. And my low flush was a long way from being the nuts (he could even hit a full boat on the last card).

So, I just called. The river card was another queen. I checked, fearing the worst, he bet, and I called.

He had the A-2 low, and a queen for trip queens. And his ace was the A. Fortunately, he did not have another pair to make a full house, and he did not have a second spade, so my small flush salvaged half of the pot. I had risked losing $350 and ended up winning $12.50.

I couldn't help noting to myself that I had what appeared to me to be a decent blind-defending hand, had a good flop, and had hit my flush, and I still needed luck to break even. Maybe there is a message here about defending your blind with mediocre cards.

Which of the following flops would you play with the above hand (9-7-4-2)?

1. 8 7 6 6. Q 10 J (four-flush)

2. 5 4 3 7. J 10 8

3. 8 6 3 8. 10 6 5

4. J 7 5 9. K 5 3

5. A 10 9 10. A 6 3

Possible answers: The first number below is the percentage of the time that the 9-7-4-2 wins against an A-2 and two random cards; the second number is the percentage of the time that it wins against my opponent's actual hand, A-2-Q-10 (both percentages are according to Caro's Poker Probe).

1. 40 48 6. 50 42

2. 15 32 7. 78 58

3. 32 41 8. 35 33

4. 38 47 9. 28 33

5. 30 24 10. 52 60

Thus, you are a favorite with flops No. 7 and No. 10. You should fold flop No. 5. Note that you would have a negative return if you played hands No. 2, 3, 8, and 9 against an opponent who probably has an A-2 (but you might be a favorite against a maniac). In hand No. 6, a high flop with a flush draw, you should bet the flop if there is any significant chance that your opponent might fold. Flops No. 1 and No. 4 are marginal (again, the opponent's style is a prime consideration).