Coping With the Extraordinary

It must be pointed out at the outset that this is being written in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attack on humanity that stunned and sickened virtually everyone in the civilized world.

Truly, the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon were shocking beyond belief. Moreover, the images they left in our minds are likely to linger there a good long while, if not forever. It was fortunate (and appropriate, I believe) that major sporting events were postponed for nearly a week. Such distressing events are certain to faze everyone in some way, both emotionally and psychologically.

It is at such times that sports handicappers (and everyone whose work or pastime depends upon analysis) give themselves certain reminders. Disruptions such as the terrorist attacks, and their aftermath, can be very dangerous to the analytical process. In the social sciences, such disruptions to a system or process are known as exogenous variables (factors that enter from outside the normal system or process).

Obviously, no handicapper would ever anticipate such unspeakable acts of violence as those that occurred on Sept. 11, 2001. Such a frightening and emotional experience would never be part of the normal handicapping equation. America, and the world, needed a substantial period of mourning to get back to anything close to normal.

But the lesson to remember at all times by handicappers is that disruptions, stress, or any number of exogenous variables can insidiously affect your analytical process and affect a result. So, it's important for all handicappers to be on guard for outside factors and to be ready to cope with them.

Just as uncertainty is the enemy of most businesses, disruptions, unusual situations, or extraordinary stress are enemies of the handicapping process.

For consistent handicapping success, the fewer the variables in the equation, the better. For football and basketball, generally speaking, the handicapper must pick more than 52.38 percent winners in order to succeed (yes, there are some other ways to do it – money lines, hedging, exotic wagers, and so on, but let's stick to the basics for now). The more variables there are in the handicapping equation – possible inclement weather, key injuries, travel problems, extra rest, change of playing surface, "guaranteed wins" by players, and so on – the more volatile is the situation, and, usually, the more difficult it becomes to consistently exceed that 52.38 percent mark over any sustained period of time. The fewer the variables, the better. Then, the knowledgeable handicapper can focus almost entirely on fundamental player matchups, coaching styles and expertise, and any key psychological factors.

If you understand the concept of "the fewer the variables, the better," you'll understand why bookmakers love to cloud the handicapping decision-making process as often as possible in as many ways as possible – for example, totals wagering, first-half bets, second-half bets, teasers, parlays, reverses, action points bets, "if" bets, and so on. As far as the bookmakers are concerned, the more choices, the better; the more variables involved in a game, the better; the more distractions, the better; and the more disruptions, the better.

Diversion, disruption, and confusion are allies of bookmakers. If sportsbooks are at all competent in balancing their action, the more often their clients wager on high-variable games, the more money the books should make.

What bookmakers dislike most are a few substantial, well-placed wagers on well-handicapped, relatively formful games at good pointspread value. So, guess how you should wager most of the time? (If you don't know the answer, you should reconsider your handicapping and wagering habits.)

Whenever a potentially distracting exogenous variable is thrown into the mix, the more difficult it usually is to exceed the magic 52.38 percent mark. Some of the more common outside factors that could affect you are illness, a death in the family, or marital problems. Or, how about one of your children being rushed to the emergency room? Then, there are fires, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Whether they're affecting you or the players, the "X-Factor" goes up. And one of the most overlooked and dangerous exogenous variables is financial stress (possibly from a lost job, a business setback, or gambling debts).

You should always be aware of such factors. Experience very much helps. Self-awareness helps (vs. being in denial). Most good handicappers know they should never wager more money than they can afford to lose. There are no sure things. If you wager or gamble regularly, you should set aside an appropriate amount of your income for that activity. If you lose that bankroll, you should consider yourself out of action until you are able to re-establish a bankroll without fazing your style of living.

If you realize that exogenous variables are present and could be influencing your analysis or decision-making, you should consider trimming the size of your wagers, the number of your wagers, the number of days you wager, and/or all of the foregoing. And if the outside variables are particularly distracting or undesirable, you should consider backing off entirely until things return to normal.

Chuck Sippl is senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping advice, angles, power ratings, and emerging-player information, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to review a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say that you read about The Gold Sheet in Card Player. You also can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.