The Shifting Values of Poker Skills

A few years ago, I got into an argument with some of the more experienced players on the topic of poker skills. Table selection, they argued, is the single most important poker skill. I thought this sounded like a nice insight that didn't happen to apply to me. At the time, my local cardroom had at most two tables that I could afford to play, and frequently just one. Both were usually populated by nearly identical assortments of weak players. I had lots of other holes in my game (and I still do), and it didn't seem like working on table selection was the best use of my poker study time. I didn't even know how I could work on it, anyway, and this was in the context of a discussion on how to spend one's study time.

I thought it seemed pretty cut-and-dried, but these more experienced players didn't buy my argument. Unfortunately, they didn't have a counterargument – they just felt that their intuitions as experienced players trumped any reasoned argument. Perhaps, I thought, they only meant that table makeup is the most important contributor to your results. But no, they insisted, if you want to improve as a poker player, you should work on your table selection. Although I could certainly appreciate that table selection might turn out to be important eventually, I couldn't see a good reason to work on it just then.

Since the counterargument was roughly, "I know more than you, so shut up," I think it's fair to say that I've thought about this in more detail than those other guys. And I believe now would be a good time to report my findings, even if it turns out that theirs was a minority view after all. In the process, I'd like to argue that which poker skill is the most important depends on a variety of factors, factors that change over time.

First, let me make some assertions. In order for a skill to be "important," it has to be one with which you can realize an advantage over your opponents (in terms of expectation, or EV), by merit of being better at that skill. So, while breathing is undoubtedly important in some sense, for the remainder of this column it's not, because, generally speaking, the worst breather at a given table isn't at much of a disadvantage solely on account of his breathing (I'm not talking about tells here). Skill in performing heart surgery is important and valuable to society, but it's unlikely that this skill will give anyone an advantage at poker (however, the people who have this skill may tend to have attributes that do help with poker).

There's another useful distinction to make when we throw around words like "important." Some skills are important in that you've already realized the advantages they confer, even though you would not be well advised to work on them more. It's possible that many experienced players reach this point with starting-hand selection. Starting-hand selection may be at the root of a big chunk of their advantage over their opponents, but it may not be the best area in which to concentrate further study. Some other skills are important because there is substantial advantage still to be realized. Reading tells may be one for many players, even experienced players. I'm no longer a completely green player, but my ability to spot tells is poor at best.

Another way in which a skill's importance is context-dependent is well illustrated by an example like table selection. Many players have no freedom to exercise table selection meaningfully. For low-limit players, sometimes the local cardroom spreads only one or two games at limits you can play. Sometimes, even if there are multiple tables, the rules or waiting times governing player movement make it impractical to move in response to changes in game conditions. And, finally, even when there is a choice of games, the available games are often about equally good. I'm thinking especially of the low-limit calling-station games that you'll find in just about every cardroom. If most of your play is under these conditions, working on your table selection skills would be a poor use of your time, at least in the short term.

There's no reason to skimp on any part of your poker education. So, with unlimited time, you might as well work on all of the skills you haven't yet mastered. However, with limited time, your best bet is to devote time to those skills by which you can most readily realize additional advantage. Put out the big fires first, then the small ones. For experienced players, reading tells might be a better choice than starting-hand selection (even for me, although I certainly make plenty of preflop and third-street errors). For novice low-limit players, the two might be reversed. Certainly, reading tells will likely become important later, and it's helpful in learning to switch off every now and then. But novice players clearly have more fundamental things to work on.

The importance of a given poker skill clearly varies from player to player, and changes as you progress from novice to (if all goes well) solid player. This is by no means peculiar to poker. People in industry often get promoted to managerial positions due to technical competence, to teaching positions due to research skills, or to coaching positions due to athletic achievements. It's critical in such situations to continually re-evaluate what skills and knowledge you need most in order to improve. If we examine the entire trajectory of a poker player's career, certainly by the time he reaches something approaching mastery of the game, table selection will be an extremely important contributor to his results. But many players languish well below mastery, having failed to appreciate many of the basic points of strategy. Inexperienced players almost by definition are lacking in basic skills. A poor understanding of position play, of adjusting to raises, or of the relative values of different starting hands might point to a much more important skill for a player to work on, while the perspective of a more experienced player might be completely inappropriate. In any case, the broad assertion that some particular skill is the single most important skill in poker is clearly an oversimplification that has less practical value to you than simply knowing what skills and knowledge you should be working on at a given time.

I don't mean to pick on table selection. Because of some chance interaction a few years ago, it was an easy example to draw upon. In fact, I consider it quite an important skill, and these days when I play, it's in a room with many games I can play. As it turns out, I do a poor job of table selection, so it's an area I should work on. But I think it's important to be skeptical when someone presents advice that's right for him, without considering that it may not be right for everyone.