The Sacred Trinity of the NFL Playoffs

It's the playoff season in the NFL, and for many handicappers, that can be a frustrating time. For one thing, the number of games from which to choose has dwindled down to a precious few. And it's often the case in those games that the oddsmaker will post "square numbers" (pointspreads that make the public pay an extra-heavy price for betting on a popular team), or that the consensus of opinion on a game will line up on the same side and move a pointspread ever higher (or lower, on an interesting underdog), taking a lot of value out of a wager.

Obviously, one option when the number of games diminishes to just a handful is to step aside and wait for either a "very good" play or next football season. But that's usually not what happens (for which sportsbooks are generally thankful). Sports bettors who have been in action all season are going to put a matchstick or two on most of the NFL postseason games from the opening wild-card round through the Super Bowl.

As I've written many times before, I don't like to "guess" at ball games, recognizing that each well-thought-out wager is, in fact, an educated guess. It's just my belief that if you know the game, the pointspread value, the players and the coaches, and the percentages, you're not really guessing. If you've done your homework well, you're investing in vehicles with a theoretical positive expected value, realizing that each investment isn't going to work out. To me, that's not guessing.

And when it comes to NFL playoff games and dealing with "square numbers," I have found it very useful to get right down to basic Vince Lombardi-like analysis to make difficult choices.

For my money, the sacred trinity for playoff picking is a strong running game, a strong defense, and QBs who can make big plays without making big mistakes.

As the playoffs progress, the teams that can't run the ball, especially in the usually cold December and January weather, tend to drop by the wayside. The finesse aerial games that "lit up" opposing secondaries earlier in the season don't work so well when the field is frozen, the ball is slick, the receivers can't run their precision routes, and the normal timing is gone. Teams that are able to pound away for a few key first downs, allowing them to be less predictable, are most likely to make a field goal here and there and take better advantage of any opportunities in the "red zone." At the playoff level, it's usually the case that if you can't run, you can't win (at least more than one game).

Teams with "soft" defenses also go by the wayside. In most seasons, this adage is true: "Offense wins games; defense wins championships." Baltimore won last season with the best defense in recent years. Two years ago the Rams won the Super Bowl with a great offense and better-than-average defense. When the St. Louis defense last season allowed the most-ever number of points by a playoff team, the Rams couldn't even win their own division and were dispatched in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Good defense alone might not be enough in the playoffs, but a bad defense surely won't be enough. A good veteran team will exploit a key defensive weak link again and again in a playoff game.

Teams with bad decision-making at QB usually go by the wayside. It is a sign of maturity among NFL QBs when they learn that in order to win titles, they must first learn how not to "lose" games by forcing the ball into coverage. Then, they can "win" games by continually playing the percentages and keeping defenses off balance. It can be argued that Dan Marino (no Super Bowl wins) never learned that lesson. John Elway never won the Super Bowl until he did learn that lesson (his Denver Super Bowl teams also ran extremely well and defended very well, by the way). The Elway-Terrell Davis Broncos had the sacred trinity. When the ground game was strong, the defense was attacking, and Elway was avoiding turnovers and making big plays, the Broncos were collecting rings.

When the Broncos of earlier years used the run mostly as a change of pace, had a mediocre defense, and counted heavily on Elway's big plays, they continually said "bye, bye" in the postseason. And, in fact, they were great go-againsts whenever they made it as far as the Super Bowl, losing three times with Elway by a combined score of 136-40.

The Baltimore Ravens won 11 straight games (covering 10) in their Super Bowl run last season, with star rookie RB Jamal Lewis (injured early in the 2001 season) pounding away, their defense stuffing most foes, and the surprising Trent Dilfer avoiding the big mistake. This season, a weak ground game portends a playoff exit.

I have one added corollary to the "sacred trinity" theory: Weak coaches don't win Super Bowls. Jim Fassel proved it again last season. Weak or lower-echelon coaches might win a playoff game, or even two. They might own the better rushing attack and defense, and the smarter QB, after all. But, a Ray Malavasi, Wayne Fontes, and Wes Phillips won't win a Super Bowl (nice guys, by the way, but not great coaches). The top coaches have the edge in the biggest game, and winning the biggest game helps to define someone as a top coach. All great coaches don't win the Super Bowl, but it's nearly impossible for a team to win the big one without an exceptional coach.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping advice, forecasts, and angles on the playoffs, subscribe to The Gold Sheet or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to review a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say you read about The Gold Sheet in Card Player. You can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.