Yes, You Can Beat Crazy Hold'em Games

Sometime ago I had promised to write about some myths regarding low-limit hold'em games. I'm finally getting around to my favorite myth: "You can't beat these games – somebody is always going to stick around and catch their second pair to beat your pocket aces." The other version of that particular myth is, "You can't beat this game, the players are too bad." My response to that statement is (if the person saying it is in the game), "You're probably right – may I have your seat to verify your hypothesis?"

I understand why many players think that wild and crazy games can't be beaten. Much of the well-known literature about hold'em describes games that feel almost like a beautifully choreographed ballet: "Ah, he raised before the flop, and then called a bet, and then raised on the turn. But he knows that I must have a good hand because I called his raise cold before the flop, so he must have …" Having read that, you sit down in a Southern California $3-$6 hold'em game and the scene is about as choreographed as a cat fight: "Ah, he raised before the flop, so he must have two cards and six chips (see the footnote). Then he called a bet on the flop – I conclude there were three cards on the flop and he still had two cards and three chips."

The difficult point to grasp (and even more difficult to live with) is that your expected value (the amount of money you "expect" to win in a given time period) goes up with bad players. But the truly painful point is that the variance – the up and down swings in your bankroll – can be truly nightmarish when you are in these no-fold'em hold'em games.

Here's an example that has been discussed recently on Usenet's rec.gambling.poker newsgroup. Lee Munzer introduced a player who promises to (and then does) raise or bet at every opportunity when he's on the button. Lee asked where you'd want to sit in relation to that player. Interestingly, he didn't ask if you'd want to be at that table at all. And there hasn't really been any discussion (up to the time of my writing this) about how to modify your game for this situation.

Imagine what such a game would look like: There's an automatic bet/raise generator on the button. All the players know that he's playing without looking at his cards, so they're jumping in for all the action – practically every pot is capped before the flop and there are three or four bets on the flop every time. Well, that doesn't appear to be too terribly different from some of the $3-$6 games I've seen.

So, how do you respond to these situations?

1. When you get a big hand – one that is already powerful or can flop huge draws – play it fast and put a lot of money in the pot. Munzer named his theoretical player "Dave." If you've got a Dave at your table, you can effectively "use" him to charge others a huge premium to see the flop with speculative hands. For instance, if you have Q-Q, you raise – fine. But now Dave (who isn't looking at his cards) reraises. Wonderful! You cap it. Now somebody who wants to take his 8-7 suited and outflop you is paying a huge premium. His implied odds are severely diminished. Dave is helping you punish players who are playing speculative hands against your big cards. You can also do this with something like A-Q suited that can flop a big pair or massive draw.

2. If you can punish people who are playing speculative cards, the converse holds as well – they can punish you when you have 8-7 suited and they have K-K (Dave operates in an equal-opportunity fashion). Therefore, don't play speculative cards – you're not getting the right implied odds.

3. Don't try to isolate Dave by sitting on his left and reraising – it won't work. Unfortunately, you're not the only player at the table who has noticed what Dave is doing.

4. Get used to the variance – and if your bankroll or blood pressure isn't up to it, find a game that doesn't have a Dave in it. Playing games like this isn't very interesting – you can't make subtle moves on your opponents, and your big pairs will lose much more often than they will win. Your only hope will be to play extremely tight, take the beats as they come, and remember that your profit will likely arrive in the form of two or three huge pots over the course of a multiple-hour session. You beat these games by not bleeding off chips with speculative and questionable hands.

So, when somebody whines about not being able to beat wild and woolly hold'em games, tell them they're right – and then go beat the game yourself.

Thanks for reading.

Footnote: In many lower-limit games, if a player had exactly six chips, he would be almost certain to raise preflop. He wants to get all in and play flop lotto.