2001 NBA Playoffs

It's NBA playoff time, and I'm writing this column to emphasize that higher percentages in terms of handicapping often present themselves in the first round. Thus, if you're only a casual wagerer on NBA play and usually like to wait until the later playoff rounds when the championship ring is in sight, you might want to reconsider that line of thinking.

In fact, the last three years have been particularly reliable when it has come to overs/unders and with regard to revenge games.

Let's take a look at "totals" wagering first. I've mentioned several times on these pages that, generally speaking, totals tend to be a little on the high side in playoff games. That's because more people prefer to play the "over" in games simply because it's a more exciting wager. In effect, if you bet the "over," you're rooting for both teams. You want the star players on each team to have big games. You want the treys to fall with frequency. You want to see breakaway dunks. You want the "big guns" to fire away. For most people, it's too agonizing to bet the "under" and then root for both teams to miss open shots, throw the ball out of bounds, and stumble through out-of-sync performances, and hope the refs "swallow their whistles."

Rest assured that the oddsmaker knows this. That's why there's often more value on the "under" side of a total than on the "over" side. And it's often even more the case when it comes to playoff games, because there's likely to be more action from the "public" on those games.

Let's look at some numbers. In the first round of the playoffs last year, there were 11 "overs," 21 "unders," and one virtual tie. In the first round of the 1999 playoffs, there were 16 "overs" and 17 "unders" in the first round. In 1998, there were 13 "overs" and 21 "unders." Thus, for the last three seasons of NBA playoffs, the "unders" had the better of it by a count of 59-40-1. As I've also written before, percentages near 60 are very good in sports betting.

I will also mention my usual caveat. Looking back at pointspread results of recent years can be helpful, but it by no means guarantees similar results for upcoming events. The players, coaches, referees, and oddsmakers will have great input affecting upcoming pointspread results; past results will have no input. In fact, it should be noted that the NBA has made an effort in recent seasons to increase scoring and to present a more fan-attractive product, trying to get away from the rather dull, grinding styles popularized by Detroit, New York, and Miami in recent years. Recent "points of emphasis" for NBA officials have been to call more reaching and bumping fouls away from the basket and more "rooting out" fouls down low. Those changes have helped offenses this season. But it's funny how officials tend to give defenses more leeway in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. So, for the last three years in the playoffs, the "under" has more often been the percentage side.

Revenge has also been the way to go in the first round. At The Gold Sheet offices, we always keep track of how revenge teams are doing in the playoffs. And it's turned out that the first round has usually been the best for the "Zig Zag Theory" the past three years.

This simple angle merely calls for the bettor to wager on the straight-up loser in each ensuing game of a playoff series. Even though the oddsmaker often shades revenge teams with the line in ensuing games, the Zig Zag Theory has been a long-term moneymaker. And it's worked very well in the first playoff round the last three years. In 1998, revenge teams in the first round were 17-9 vs. the spread; in 1999, they were 15-10 vs. the spread; and in 2000, they were also 15-10. That's a three-year total of 47-29 (61.8 percent) vs. the spread. Once again, that's a very impressive percentage in sports betting.

Sometimes, there's an even more revealing subset in revenge games in the first round. For example, in last year's playoffs, revenge home favorites were 7-2 vs. the spread; revenge teams in other pointspread roles were only 8-8.

There is also a good explanation for this. In first-round NBA play, teams match up No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, and so on, in each conference. Also, the first-round series are the best-of-five, meaning that each setback generates a great sense of urgency among the losers. Thus, if a No. 1- or No. 2-seeded team loses to a lower seed, it is a high-percentage play to bounce back with a cover if its next game is at home. And it's often the case in the usually tight 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 matchups that the home court makes a big difference.

You can be sure this year that I'll be looking very closely at all revenge home favorites in the first round of the playoffs. And I'll be one of those guys in the sportsbook who's watching quietly and cheering for neither team in most games – I'll be holding a ticket on the "under." I know I won't win every bet – that never happens in sports betting – but I'll probably be on the high-percentage side.

For more insights, stats, history, updates, and the inside word on this season's NBA playoffs, look for The Gold Sheet at your local newsstand or give us a call at (800) 798-GOLD (4653). You can also purchase a copy by visiting our website at http://www.goldsheet.com. And be sure to look for our expanded Football Preview issue in the coming weeks.