Big Mistakes

As a prelude to a poker problem, I am going to give you a backgammon problem. Oh, you don't know how to play backgammon? That's OK, as long as you know a little bit about gambling. The only part of backgammon that interests us is the doubling cube.

In backgammon, before you roll the dice, you have the opportunity to double your opponent (when he does not have control of the doubling cube). You can pick up that cube, turn the face to the number 2, and set it down in front of the opponent. That says to him, "Play for twice as much or give up." According to mathematical theory, if you have a 75 percent chance of winning, it does not matter what he does. If he takes, he loses three games for two units each and wins one game for two units, leaving him four units down. If he gives up, he also loses four units in the four games. So, playing on when you are going to win less than one game out of four is a mistake, and giving up when you are going to win more than one game out of four is a mistake.

The setting for using the cube does not need to be backgammon. It could be watching a basketball game, a golf match, or a prizefight. If a gambler gets confronted with a situation where he must gamble for twice as much or give up, the dividing line between a take and a drop is when the doubler is a 3-to-1 favorite.

Well, folks, I am a gambler, not strictly a mathematician. There have been many times in backgammon when I have had a game that was a winner more than the three-quarters of the time, a game so strong that a mathematician would say it was clearly an error not to double, yet I did not turn the cube and double. Can you guess the reason?

If you are up against a steamer, a guy who nearly always extends his hand as you are reaching for the doubling cube, and scoops in like he is being handed a Christmas present, you can double him later, when you have a near lock, and he will still take the double. So, if the position is not too volatile (where you can lose your market), you can keep rolling instead of doubling. If your position continues to strengthen, you eventually double, and the opponent still takes it. If your game goes sour, you will be glad that you have not raised the stakes. Instead of playing with a modest advantage, you are playing with the mortal nuts, because the steamer is agreeing to play for twice as much money when you are 80 percent or 90 percent likely to win.

How does this backgammon concept apply to poker? I explain it in the following way: "If you want your opponent to make a big mistake, set him a problem that gives him a chance to make a big mistake."

We can apply this concept most effectively to big-bet poker, because of our unlimited choice in bet size. Look at this situation from tournament play: You are playing no-limit hold'em with $500-$1,000 blinds and no ante. An opponent open-raises to $3,500. You are on his immediate left with pocket aces. Of course, you reraise. It would be bad poker to just call, and then have the flop bet coming through you into the field. Position with respect to the preflop raiser is an important concept for no-limit hold'em, and your position here if you just call is as bad as it gets.

The question is how much to reraise. Suppose both you and your opponent have about forty grand. What should you select as an amount to reraise? The typical mistake here is to reraise a small amount – say, $3,500 more. Let us establish a dialogue with someone who reraises $3,500 to get their reasoning. Perhaps it goes something like this:

"I have two aces, at least a 3.5-to-1 favorite over anything my opponent holds. If he calls the raise, he is making a mistake. He is getting only $8,500 to $3,500 on his money, so he is making a bad call. Why do I need to put in a big raise when it is an error for my opponent to call even my small raise?"

There are lots of issues here, but let us just address one of them. Suppose that mathematically the player is supposed to call a raise of $2,000, and no more. (Please do not E-mail me complaining that a raise of only $2,000 is illegal. This is a theory discussion.) This would mean that the player who calls your $3,500 raise is making a $1,500 mistake. So what? Any veteran no-limit hold'em player would whack that $3,500 opening wager up to a total of at least ten grand. If the opponent folds, the veteran has lost only $1,500 by not making the smaller raise. But if he can persuade the opponent to call ten grand, that is an error of more than four grand, a much bigger mistake. Furthermore, the opponent may think that calling ten grand is not right, because he is putting in too much money to hit a flop, that he should either go with his hand or muck it. He may decide to play back with his whole stack. That would be a real whopper of an error. So, we see that the player who makes a wimpy raise in no-limit cannot induce an opponent to make a big mistake, but putting in a raise that's close to the size of the pot can produce the kind of swing we are hoping for. Giving up a chance to beat someone out of $1,500 can provide the opportunity to double through that person as a result of a major mistake.

There are some other issues here, also. Raising only a small amount looks a bit fishy. It also puts your whole stack at risk, since two aces are hard to dump when heads up after the flop. The veteran no-limit player thinks, "If I am going to possibly put my whole stack in jeopardy, this guy is going to have to pay a big price to have a go at all of my money."

The most frequent error that people who are new to no-limit play make is to bet too small a sum. They are used to the betting ratios of limit poker, and have failed to adopt to the new medium. No-limit allows wagers that are bites, not nibbles. Your chips are a weapon in no-limit play. As they say in warfare and football, "If you have a big gun, shoot it."

Editor's note: Bob Ciaffone's new book, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, co-authored with Jim Brier, is available now (332 pages, $25 plus $5 shipping and handling). This work and his other poker books, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Holdem Poker, can be ordered through Card Player. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons. E-mail [email protected] or call (989) 792-0884. His website is www.diamondcs.net/~thecoach, where you can download Robert's Rules of Poker for free.