Percentage Plays in the Stretch Drive

All professional handicappers know they must exercise extra caution in the closing weeks of the NBA regular season. Bettors who aren't careful can burn up hard-earned NBA profits that they have accumulated during the first four months of the season.

Part-time or amateur handicappers are well-advised to follow the lead of the pros in exercising due care in the closing weeks. There are many reasons for this.

Always remember that NBA players are not just a bunch of guys with tattoos running around in baggy shorts, performing acrobatic moves, scowling at officials, and complaining about playing time. Nor are they artificial little minimen running back and forth on the TV screen for your wagering pleasure. To paraphrase the telling words from the motion picture The Elephant Man, "they are not animals; they are human beings." More importantly for our purposes, most are millionaire human beings.

Although the other professional sports leagues are catching up, the NBA is still ahead in terms of being a "players' league." Most teams have luxurious charter jets with in-flight meals often catered by gourmet restaurants. Most teams stay only in the best hotels, in the best rooms, most of which have extra-large beds that allow the many extra-tall players to get a good night's sleep.

Yet, even while the players are "babied" during the season, once the long campaign begins to reach a conclusion, the thoughts of many of the players on noncontending teams often tend to drift away from the on-court proceedings. As referenced above, the players are not animals. On most teams that are out of contention, those well-heeled players begin planning for their vacations, or, if those plans have already been made, begin making preparations for the journey itself. It is not unusual for many players on noncontenders to depart for "faraway lands" just one or two days after the end of the regular season. They relish getting away from the somewhat regimented life – as luxurious as it might be – of the team, and enjoying their freedom.

But this mindset of relaxed, distracted players is something handicappers can take advantage of, because for players on contending teams, the attitude of the players is different. They're interested in pursuing "the ring." While the minds of players on noncontenders might begin to wander, the minds of the players on contenders usually begin to focus. Coaches try to get their team's defense buttoned down for the playoffs. Many coaches tend to "shorten their bench," giving most of the minutes to starters and top reserves, "stealing" some rest for their star players when and where they can.

In fact, the better the team, the more consistent the performance down the stretch in the NBA. Last year, the "A" teams in the NBA combined to go 39-24-1 (61.9 percent) vs. the spread in the last three weeks of the season, disregarding games they played against each other.

Virtually all of those teams were fighting for something down the stretch, whether it was the best overall record, the best playoff seeding, or a key home-court advantage in the playoffs. Every game was important to them, and their combined pointspread record reflected it. Most often, even if a contending team had achieved its goal, and a coach started giving reserves more playing time, team pride and late-season momentum took over, with no drop in pointspread performance. The "A" teams against the rest of the field was still the way to look.

For the noncontenders, it is natural behavior for the attention of many of their players to wane in the closing weeks. And when that happens, their defenses tend to fade, because defense is always a team chore that demands effort and intensity. Even if an also-ran team plays hard for a half or more vs. a top contender, once the inevitable outcome appears decided, team defense often goes out the window. Moreover, many coaches and team administrations of noncontenders realize this, with the result being that younger players start receiving more playing time in order to evaluate them to see how they fit into the picture for the next season. Many veteran players who might be on the injured list do not rush to get off it. Visions of Maui, Cabo, or Europe begin dancing through the players' heads. Some even talk rather openly about their plans.

So, identify the "A" teams this year. A winning percentage of 63 percent should be the minimum. Be careful when they play each other, and look for the spots to go with them when they don't.

Last year's "A" teams at the end of the season were San Antonio (58-24), L.A. Lakers (56-26), Philadelphia (56-26), Sacramento (55-27), Dallas (53-29), Utah (53-29), and Milwaukee (52-30). Only Utah (3-4 vs. the spread against non-"A" teams) had a losing pointspread record down the stretch in our model.

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