The Two Toughest <br> No-Limit Hold'em Hands

Although I am starting to believe that pot-limit hold'em is a tougher poker game than no-limit hold'em (an issue for another day) most people still consider no-limit the "Cadillac" of poker games, a line first attributed to the great Doyle Brunson.

That Doyle called it the "Cadillac" tells you something about the era when he first uttered that line, but let's assume, for purposes of our discussion here, that no-limit is still the toughest game in town, because I want to write about the two toughest hands in that game.

I believe that J-J (pocket jacks) and A-J (an ace with a deceptively weak kicker) are the two toughest hands in no-limit. Let's see why, and in the process learn a little something about other no-limit hands.

Because I think J-J is the toughest, let's get A-J out of the way first. Like its first cousin A-Q, A-J is far weaker than its "cousin by marriage," A-K. To understand this, you first have to understand A-K's unique nature.

A-K is an underdog to almost every pocket pair, with one exception: when A-K suited is going up against pocket deuces when neither of the deuces is of the same suit as the A-K suited – that is, A K vs. 2 2 … and even then, the A-K suited is such a tiny underdog that you might as well call it a coin flip (unlike 11-10 or 13-10 hands, which I do not consider coin flips).

Despite that, A-K occupies a unique position because unless it finds itself up against A-A or K-K, it's never much of an underdog. Against Q-Q, for example, a hand that strangles many of A-K's chances to make a straight, it's only somewhere between a 1.16-1 and 1.33-1 underdog (depending on suits). It's an underdog to all the other pairs, too, but never by much.

A hand like pocket eights, however, while favored against A-K, can get into all kinds of trouble against many hands. It's only a tiny favorite over raggy hands like J-9, and is a huge underdog to larger pairs (usually about 4.5-1 against).

That's why when someone shoves all in and gets called, he's usually, until the opponent's cards are exposed, far more nervous holding 8-8 than A-K. The medium and small pocket pairs are far more likely to find themselves dominated than is A-K.

A-J, on the other hand, owns no such unique distinction. A-K was in trouble only against K-K and A-A; A-J finds itself in trouble against A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, and A-Q. That's a lot more trouble, especially because A-K and A-Q are in the mix. Not only do you run into these hands more often than the bigger pocket pairs, but your A-J is dominated by them.

Put another way, when an ace hits the flop, you're stuck worrying (assuming there is still betting to be done) whether someone else owns a stronger ace. Unless you flop two pair, it's hard to bet your hand strongly, and even if you do flop two pair, your A-K opponent is still live for a straight or for catching a better two pair.

Another unique A-K feature, although one that pretty much everyone knows, is that when you're holding it, you always flop top pair, top kicker whenever either of your cards flop – something that isn't true of A-Q or A-J.

Why is A-J more troublesome than A-10 or A-9? Those hands are even weaker than A-J, but most players are able to recognize the inherent weaknesses. They know their A-9 can be in all sorts of trouble, and rarely bet it strongly unless they do flop a 9 or two, or unless they are heads up.

A-J, on the other hand, is just strong enough to look good but not strong enough to actually be good, a trait it shares with its even more troublesome nephew, J-J.

Even though pocket jacks completely turned the tide in the 2002 World Series of Poker "big one" (when Robert Varkonyi crushed John Shipley, who happened to hold … A-J!), they are still a very trouble-filled hand: Even on that historical WSOP hand, Shipley still had a 30 percent chance to escape.

Most players know from painful experience that K-K is far more vulnerable than is A-A, and correctly place it into its own unique "category." Ditto for Q-Q, which has twice the chance to be dominated (by both A-A and K-K, instead of just A-A), and which is far more vulnerable to A-K than is K-K.

Especially in no-limit, where players are frequently put to the test for all of their chips preflop, most players understand that Q-Q is a big step down from K-K. It's not just a matter of pure math. There is a limited number of hands that most sane players are willing to gamble their entire stacks with, and the existence of the king as a potential overcard greatly increases the number of hands the insane (OK, let's just call them the very aggressive) players are willing to gamble with.

You will see players gambling with hands like K-Q, K-J, and even K-10 (especially if they are suited, although the suits rarely matter in heads-up confrontations) in no-limit events, and that makes Q-Q more vulnerable, even if the favorite. Even if you are a 7-3 favorite, you don't want to face very many all-in situations with that status.

Believe it or not, if you are precisely a 7-3 favorite, you are an underdog to win just two consecutive confrontations with that status. If you don't believe me, just do the math. Seven-tenths times seven-tenths gives you 49 chances out of 100: You're a 51-49 underdog to win your mere two consecutive confrontations.

If Q-Q is so vulnerable, you're starting to glimpse why J-J is even more vulnerable. It's dominated by A-A, K-K, and Q-Q, is extremely vulnerable to A-K, A-Q, and K-Q, and is in more trouble than it would prefer against any hand containing either an ace or a king.

Just as A-J is stronger than A-10 or A-9, but runs into more trouble because of its deceptive weakness, so too is J-J stronger than 10-10 or 9-9, but not as clearly weak. If you shove it all in before the flop, you're in trouble against far too many hands, and if you play on after the flop, you will very often be staring at a board that contains at least one overcard.

In fact, one of the best things that can happen to a player owning J-J (aside from a flop like A-J-4, where his middle set has a great chance to win a lot of money) is to get a flop like A-Q-4, because, facing two overcards, the J-J owner will get out before getting into too much trouble. When the flop comes K-9-4, the J-J owner faces a much tougher decision.

For a while, I came up with a simplistic and useful solution to the dilemma: I just pretended that when I got dealt J-J, I'd actually been dealt 8-8. I treated it just like all the other medium pairs: as a hand I would probably be willing to play strongly heads up, but one I wouldn't want to play too strongly, or commit too many chips to, especially when in early position.

In other words, I used to try limping with it, hoping to flop a set, or raising with it, hoping to win the blinds but quite willing to release it in the face of a strong reraise from someone I considered a tight player. Similarly, if I got short-stacked, I was willing to take my chances with it.

The "pretend I had two eights" approach helped me for a while, although I understood it was indeed too simplistic, and needed a lot of refining and footnotes before I really understood how to play pocket jacks correctly. Nonetheless, if you've been playing J-J as if it were Q-Q, you've been making a much bigger error than you would be by treating it exactly like 8-8. If you've been taking the "play it like it's almost as good as two queens" approach, go ahead and make the change to "play it like two eights."

After some time of treating it like one of the middle pairs it more closely resembles, you'll start to learn some of those footnotes and refinements necessary to play it for exactly what it's worth as a uniquely strong (and weak) hand.

After all, J-J has a lot more value on a 10-5-2 flop than 8-8 does, especially given the frequency with which players start with hands like J-10, Q-10, K-10 and A-10 … and the difficulty many players have in getting away from their top pair after the flop.

If "push it hard when you flop it as an overpair to a nonconnected, nonsuited board" sounds like it might be the first of those footnotes to which I've been referring, you're right. "Be very careful when the flop comes something like 8 7 6" is another. Until you assemble the rest of those footnotes, play it like two eights, and you'll probably find yourself winning (and even more frequently, not losing) lots of chips!