Great Play or Fluke? You be the Judge

Here's the situation: There are approximately 35 players left in the $2,000 buy-in pot-limit hold'em World Series of Poker tournament, and you are the chip leader with approximately $23,000. The players at your table have been playing on the conservative side, while you've been extending your lead by playing aggressively. There's exactly 34 seconds left before the dinner break and you've been dealt the A J. Lee Markholt (an excellent pot-limit hold'em player) limps in for $300 from middle position (the blinds are $150-$300). Lee is probably third in chips in the tournament with approximately $18,000. You are seated to Lee's immediate left, two off the button.

Well, this is the situation I found myself in recently, and the events that followed made for what I thought would be an interesting hand to share with you. So, let me walk you through the hand street by street and share my thoughts along the way.

Preflop: When Lee limped in, I thought he may have a hand like J-10 suited, pocket sixes, or some other type of suited connector. I wasn't too afraid that he was setting a trap here with A-A or K-K, but I wanted to find out, so I decided to take control of the hand and raised it to $1,200. Everyone else passed, and Lee called the additional $900.

The flop: J 5 2. It looked like a great flop for me, so when Lee checked, I decided to make an assertive bet of $1,500. I could have bet as much as $2,850, but I rarely make the full bet in pot-limit hold'em. Lee quickly called, which made me happy. I didn't sense any immense strength from Lee. I felt that if he had flopped a set of deuces or fives, he would have played back at me, hoping I had an overpair and would give him action. His check-call felt like a J-10, Q-J, K-J, or maybe even J-9. Also, I didn't rule out the possibility that he held something like 6-6. With any of these hands, I would assume that Lee would be happy to check-call the flop and hope the rest of the hand would be checked down.

The turn: J. Great card for me, I thought. Then, to my surprise, Lee bet $5,000, which was almost a pot-sized bet. My gut was telling me this was a sign of weakness – that he thought he may have the best hand, but it wasn't the nuts. It screamed J-10 at me; then, I did some more thinking, and thought it could be 6-6 with a spade. I didn't think Lee would put me on three jacks. If anything, he may have put me on an overpair, so the J would be the ultimate scare card in this situation. For some strange reason, Lee holding a flush never occurred to me? I can't explain why, it just didn't feel like a flush at all.

After he bet the $5,000, he had approximately $10,000 remaining. I was convinced I had the best hand, so my only dilemma was whether I should wait until the river to make a play or get all the chips in now.

I decided to go for it, and raised him an additional $7,000. I know, I know, I could have raised him all in, but as I said earlier, I rarely bet the maximum in pot-limit hold'em. Why? Well, that's for an entirely different column at another time. For now, let's focus on this hand.

Lee looked at me very strangely, as in, "What are you doing? I'm not bluffing, so why are you raising me?" By this time, most of the players were already on their dinner break. I had planned on trying to squeeze in a real dinner on the break, but it became pretty clear that I wasn't going to have time.

Lee must have thought for more than six minutes. Initially, I'd put him on three jacks with a worse kicker, but the more he thought, the more I realized … gulp! He has the flush! So, I went from thinking "Please call" to "Oh no, what have I done to myself?"

What seemed like three and a half days later, Lee finally folded his hand, saying, "You must have the nut flush. There is no hand you could make that play with unless you had the nut spades. You could have had aces with the A, but that would have been a pretty bold play." I considered showing Lee my hand as a kind gesture, but thought better of it. "I'll tell you what I had after the tournament," I told him.

So, what was Lee thinking? Why did he bet $5,000 with the flush (he claimed to have the 9 8, which I believe wholeheartedly) and then fold when I raised him? Well, Lee thought it was pretty clear to me that he had the flush. So, for me to go ahead and raise him, I must have the nut flush. He was pretty sure I wasn't bluffing, and he was right! I wasn't "bluffing," I was betting what I truly believed was the best hand. The one hand Lee neglected to consider was A-J with the A. Had I held that hand, I may have raised him even if I had put him on the flush. What really happened here, however, is that I completely misread my opponent. The result ended up being the best I could ask for.

So, did I make a great play or was it a fluke? If you look at this hand from a simplistic view, you see that I won a huge pot with the worst hand. According to the fundamental theorem of poker, I played the hand optimally. (If you are not familiar with the fundamental theorem of poker, you can find a full explanation of it in The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky.) That is, had the cards been played faceup, it is clear that Lee made an error here, as he should have called.

There is more to this hand than meets the eye, though. Sure, I ended up making the best play available to me, but I made it for all the wrong reasons! My intentions were not to bluff Lee. My intentions were to protect my hand, which I thought was the best at that point.

Ultimately, I vote "fluke," because of one piece of information: Had I put Lee on a flush, I would not have made the play, because I wouldn't have thought Lee would muck it. If before I made the decision I thought a raise might move Lee off a made flush, I would vote "great play." Since that thought never crossed my mind, though, I'm sticking with fluke.

I spoke to Lee the next day, and he told me that he woke up in the middle of the night and thought, "Oh no, he had A-J." Do you ever wonder why these things occur to you only at 3 a.m., when you desperately need some sleep?

It's a tough pill to swallow for anyone, but Lee is a true gentleman and handled the news very well. I also decided to share another piece of information with him that would help ease his mind. Since the hand ended during a break in the tournament, the dealer (who will remain nameless) took it upon himself to see what would have happened had Lee made the right read and called my raise: He would have been beaten by four jacks!

So, in the end, Lee made the wrong move by folding on the turn and saved his $10,000 stack. Meanwhile, I made the best play available to me, but for all the wrong reasons. That brings greater meaning to the old saying, "It's all about making the wrong play at the right time." – Lancey Howard in the Cincinnati Kid.