The 'Silent Killer' in Baseball

When it comes to sports betting, there always seems to be a few "foolers" if you just look at things on the surface.

In football, for instance, one "fooler" can be the team that runs up lots of points against weak opposition early in the season, but then fails to duplicate that production later when facing the tougher teams on its schedule. In the gridiron sport, you always have to "filter" a team's offensive stats in consideration of whether it played at home or on the road, and against a strong team or a weak team. The same thing is usually true in college basketball, where very few fans generally accompany their teams on the road. There is a big difference in college hoops between laying four points at home and laying four points on the road, where the shooting background is different, young officials can become intimidated, the host's defense can feed off the energy of the crowd, and the home team usually benefits more from sudden shifts in momentum.

After years of observing and talking with scores of people who enjoy wagering on baseball, I think one of the "foolers" in that sport can be the starting pitching matchup. The basic stats of the opposing starting pitchers can be found each day in most newspapers. I'm referring to each pitcher's win-loss record and earned-run average. If you delve a little deeper – with more specialized publications or on the Internet – you can get a breakdown of each pitcher's record at home and on the road, his recent performances, his record against the upcoming opponent, or his record in a particular ballpark.

But even that kind of handicapping "homework" can still be a fooler. The wagering odds for the game take into account the home team, the starting pitchers, the recent momentum of the teams, and the recent support of the wagering public for those teams. However, when you make a bet in baseball, you must always remember that you're not only wagering on the starting pitcher in that game, but also on all the pitchers who will follow him. In essence, you're "hiring" that starter and his bullpen for the day. That's why I like to refer to any weak bullpen as the "silent killer" in baseball. Those weak, or wild, or young, or otherwise suspect relievers are too often overlooked in the handicapping equation by most people.

Even though you might have a decent starting pitcher going for you when you make your wager, you might not have one going for you at the end. Worse than that, if your starting pitcher is knocked out, or if your team is trailing by a couple of runs in the late going, you're liable to be risking your dough on a weaker pitcher than you started with in the first place! And that's not good.

The Angels and Giants rode their strong bullpens into the World Series in 2002. In contrast, during the past few seasons, the Texas Rangers have ridden their weak bullpen into oblivion, even with Alex Rodriguez then in their powerful lineup. Vulnerable bullpens ended up costing the Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees dearly in the postseason last year.

In my opinion, it's also too simplistic to characterize a team's bullpen merely by the strength of its closer, who gets most of the ink. If a team either can't get or can't keep the lead, its closer isn't that much of a factor. That's why I like to look at a team's bullpen as a whole, with special emphasis on the closer, of course. But I also like to see a bullpen with an experienced "long man," a "vulture" (a middle- or late-inning reliever who picks up lots of wins with his steady performances), a quality lefthander who can get key outs, a strong setup man who can get the game to the closer, and a closer with composure who can get those ever-so-difficult 25th, 26th, and 27th outs. And before I make any baseball wager, I always check to make sure that the major bullpen components will be ready for duty that day.

Very few teams have perfect bullpens. The best of the best make a manager's life much more pleasant. The worst are the "silent killers" of baseball wagers, those bullpens that either blow leads or make it virtually impossible for a trailing team to ever catch up.

Thankfully, the strength and depth of a bullpen is relatively easy to find, at least in basic terms. Among other publications, the Tuesday edition of USA Today lists the basic individual pitching stats for every pitcher on every staff each week. It also has team pitching stats. If you don't have the time to read each box score daily, you can at least get a quick review/reminder of each team's "pen" if you save that Tuesday sports page. If you're more of a casual baseball fan than a superfan, you will find that easy-to-get reference page quite valuable.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview in June at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.