Three-Bet the Flop or Check-Raise the Turn?

Playing limit hold'em, you have finally flopped something good and bet it out, and someone has raised you. Of course, you want to punish him, take more of his money, and establish your proper place as Hero of Poker, but how best do you do it? Should you three-bet him now or wait until the limits go up and check-raise him on the turn? The answer, of course, is, "It depends."

Let's take a look at the factors you should consider when making this decision:

• How many opponents are there?

• How vulnerable is your hand?

• Might your opponent want a free card?

• Can a scare card come?

• Who is the raiser?

• What is your image?

How many opponents are there? The more opponents there are still in the hand, the more likely you should be to three-bet on the flop. Many opponents stay in, or try to, with long-shot draws on the flop that they will give up on the turn. Collecting extra bets from them is typically worth more on the flop while they are still in to stand the raises. Even better, if they have called only one bet so far, a reraise by you might get some of them to fold a hand that might draw out on you, potentially saving you the whole pot.

Conversely, if you are heads up, the extra money can come only from collecting an additional large bet instead of an additional small one. While this difference should not dominate your thinking as much as the considerations below, it is extra money. If you can go for it, you should.

How vulnerable is your hand? Having the best hand now does not mean you'll win the pot. You must survive two more cards. If you think your hand might not hold up, you might want to wait for the turn before raising to see if you still like your hand.

Let's look at a few quick examples. You get a free play in the big blind with the Q 4 and see a flop of Q 8 4. You bet out and are raised, which narrows the field down to the two of you. I would classify this hand as vulnerable, but you have to decide what the bad cards are. Clearly, an 8 is terrible. It counterfeits your two pair, leaving you with queens and eights. What else might be bad for you?

Typical middle-limit opponents in this situation would have raised with A-Q, called with K-Q and Q-J, and possibly folded with Q-10 or worse. This makes a king or a jack a likely dangerous card for you in addition to the 8. It might be right in this case to call on the flop, planning to check-raise if a danger card does not come, and check-call or even fold if a bad card for you does fall.

On the other hand, if you got the free play in the blind with Q-8 and bet out, I think you should three-bet right now. Trying for a check-raise also might work, but there are still chances that your opponent will check behind you (for reasons we will discuss). In addition, there is some chance that your opponent will want to get into a betting war on the flop, which he rarely will want to do on the turn unless he has you beat.

Might your opponent want a free card? If you are going to wait for a check-raise, you need to be fairly sure your opponent will bet. The more draws the board presents, the more likely it is that your opponent is raising for a free card, and he will not bet when you check to him. In this case, you must three-bet right now. For example, if the board on your Q 4 hand were Q 9 4, you should probably three-bet instead of wait to check-raise. (Some of you would prefer to call and bet out if a blank hits, but that is for another column.) There is just too much chance that if you call and check, you will give up a free card to a flush or straight draw.

Can a scare card come? Another thing that might keep your opponent from betting the turn would be a scare card. A meaningless card to both hands, but which looks like it might have hit you, could foil your check-raise plans.

Again, let's try an example. In the big blind, you call a raise from a tight opponent with the 8 7. The flop comes 8 7 2. You bet out and get raised, almost guaranteeing that this particular opponent has a big pair. There is probably nothing that can come on the turn that will deter this opponent from betting out, and you would be correct to wait and check-raise. Waiting becomes even more profitable when you consider that another deuce will counterfeit your hand and save you money if it does show up.

But suppose the flop were 8 7 6. You still have top two pair, and there is almost no chance that this particular opponent has any kind of straight draw. Now, however, if a 5 or 9 comes, your opponent will be too scared to bet, so you will not get a chance to check-raise. In this case, then, you have to three-bet now or risk having your opponent shut down and give you no more action if the wrong turn card hits.

Who is the raiser? As always, it helps to know who your opponent is and how he plays. Some players never make a free-card raise, so you need not consider that. Some players are so aggressive that they will bet the turn every time if they raised the flop, regardless of what comes or why they raised in the first place. This behavior is especially common in shorthanded games. Against such players, you almost always should wait for the turn and check-raise.

Conversely, some opponents are very tricky and raise with all sorts of hands, hoping you will fold now, or they will get to see the river, and perhaps even call it, for one more big bet. Against these opponents, you must get your raise in now and take the lead.

What is your image? Opponents take advantage of many timid, passive players by raising them frequently. Typically, these timid players go into check-and-call mode, unwilling to lay a hand down, but unwilling to take any further aggressive action without a near-nut holding.

If you are one of these timid players, or if you think you might be perceived as such, play back on the flop frequently. Do not wait for the turn. Your long-term success requires you to be seen as a force to be reckoned with.

Going into a protective shell whenever you get raised invites more and more players to raise you with impunity. After all, if you do not reraise occasionally, the raiser will figure that, at best, you will fold, or, at worst, you will check on the next street. You will encourage opponents to raise you, which is exactly the wrong thing to do.

When you can, then, you should three-bet on the flop with a good hand so that people will not be able to run over you. Waiting for the turn, even when it works and you get to check-raise, will still not be seen as being as powerful as reraising now.

Summary: Deciding which play to make when you have a choice is often very complex. Rarely does a single consideration dominate, and you have to consider many factors very quickly. Few choices in hold'em are totally clear, and making the best decision in these repeating situations makes a lot of difference.

You have seen the factors that should enter your trade-off as you decide what to do. I will, however, offer a solution for those of you who do not want to think about such things (How did you get to the end of this column?), or for those who, after due consideration, do not see a clear answer emerging: When in doubt, put the money in now!