A Seven-Card Stud Puzzle

Note: This puzzle is loosely translated from an actual live-game situation.

Moe, Larry, Curly, and Shemp were all playing in the same seven-card stud game together. Moe and Shemp were the two strongest players in the game, and when they could help it, they tried not to play against each other. But an unusual hand came up that caused all four of them to get involved. I'll describe the hand, give you some hints along the way, and then at the end I will ask you to identify what Moe had, and then to determine what Shemp's correct move is.

Here were the cards on third street:

Moe: 3

Larry: Q

Curly: K

Shemp: K

Moe started the action as the low card. Larry completed the bring-in with the Q. Curly called, and then Shemp raised. (Hint No. 1: Larry, a loose player, could conceivably have anything. Shemp, on the other hand, does not get out of line in such situations. In all likelihood, Shemp's raise suggested split kings.)

Everyone expected Moe, as the tightest player at the table, to fold. But he surprised (and maybe scared) everyone by calling. (Hint No. 2: Moe would never make that call in that situation with a pair lower than kings.) Larry and Curly clearly looked a little worried, but they were never known for their tight play. They both called.

Fourth street came as follows:

Moe: 3 6

Larry: Q 3

Curly: K 2

Shemp: K 3

Shemp breathed a cautious sigh of relief at this point. One of his greatest fears was that Moe was in there with rolled-up threes, but that clearly couldn't be the case. Did he have pocket aces? Shemp knew that was a distinct possibility, but he couldn't allow a free card. He was high man on board, so as first to act, he bet. Moe called again, which Shemp did not like. Larry and Curly both called, as well.

Fifth street:

Moe: 3 6 6

Larry: Q 3 J

Curly: K 2 7

Shemp: K 3 A

Now, Moe was high with a pair of sixes, and he bet out. (Hint No. 3: Moe never bluffs. When he bets, he does it because he thinks he has the best hand. He might bet a semistrong hand that turns out to be second best, but he'll never make a bet as an outright naked bluff.) Larry and Curly, loose gooses that they are, both called. Shemp quickly put in a raise. Again, everyone called.

Sixth street:

Moe: 3 6 6 K

Larry: Q 3 J A

Curly: K 2 7 A

Shemp: K 3 A 10

Moe was still high, and he came out betting again. Larry sat there for a second and contemplated. He had started the hand with (Q 5) Q. It pained him to fold a high pair, but he knew he was beaten. He reluctantly folded.

Curly was next. He had started with (8 5) K, and his flush draw was going nowhere. He gave it every chance to hit, but finally admitted defeat. He also folded.

Now, it was up to Shemp, who had raised on fifth street. He was thoroughly confused, but he forced himself to take a minute and think to himself, What could Moe have? And now, dear reader, I pass the question on to you. What exactly does Moe have? And as a result, what should Shemp do? See if you can guess before you read any further.

I'll give you a little more information at this point. Shemp started the hand with (A K) K. On fifth street, he made aces and kings, and even though he could account for two of the aces, he still thought Moe's most likely holding was pocket aces. So, he was confident that his aces and kings were dominating Moe's aces and sixes, hence his raise. So, you can imagine Shemp's surprise when he saw the other two aces land in Larry's and Curly's hands! Now, it was time to re-evaluate.

Could Moe have four sixes? No, because he would never call a raise on third street with pocket sixes. Could he have three sixes? At first Shemp didn't see how that would make sense, but then he noticed that the sixes he could see did not include the 6. He knew Moe would never call a third-street raise with only a three-card flush, but maybe, just maybe, he would call with a live three-card straight flush!

Shemp replayed the hand in his mind, and realized that there were no low cards or hearts out on third street, except for Moe's 3. He also recalled that Curly ended up with the A and the 2 in his hand. That meant the 3 had to be the lowest heart in Moe's hand. Could he have started with the 3 4 5? He could have, except that he would never have come out betting on sixth street after Shemp had raised him on fifth street. A flush was no longer possible, and an open-end straight draw was not enough to warrant another bet. Therefore, Shemp came to the conclusion that Moe started with either the (6 4) 3 or the (6 5) 3, with the (7 6) 3 being a slightly lesser possibility. No matter what, he knew Moe had to have trip sixes.

Now, Shemp's correct play was clear. He had aces and kings, but every other ace and king could be accounted for. He had no possible way to improve his hand, so even though he had aces up and a huge pot was up for grabs, he could not justify staying in for the showdown just to see what he already knew. He shocked all the brothers, including Moe, by folding for a single bet on sixth street. In fact, Moe was so miffed by not being paid off that he excluded Shemp from all future poker games. That's why we don't know them as the Four Stooges.

OK, that's not true, but everything else about the hand is. Do you think you could make the laydown Shemp made? Heck, I'm not ashamed to admit that I probably couldn't. But, I guess when you're that sure about what your opponent holds, there's not much point in paying to see it.

Matt can be found playing online at www.royalvegaspoker.com, where he is a member of its team of experts. You can also find other articles of his in the Online Poker News, which is at www.cardplayer.com.