Tiptoe Through the Tulips

On my $25 small blind in a late-night online no-limit hold'em tournament with more than 800 players starting, I invested $25 more to see the flop with the Q 5 in five-way action, including the big blind on my left. The flop came Q10 8, giving me top pair with a hopeless kicker and a backdoor-flush draw. There was $250 in the pot.

Should I lead with a smallish bet ($50 to $100), or should I check and wait to see what happens? Two of the callers had about $500 in chips; the other three of us all had about $1,000.

In a loose game (in which some players frequently call with hands such as 9-8 offsuit), one of the three callers not in the blinds probably would have a "bigger" queen (queen with a higher kicker than mine) nearly half the time. Thus, a big bet would not be wise. On the other hand, since there was $250 in the pot, a small investment would certainly be justified because I might have the best hand and there was some chance everyone would fold. Also, with this type of "connected" flop, there were lots of scary turn cards that could come, and I certainly didn't want to give a free card to the gutshot-straight draws (who also had to worry about the two spades).

So, I thought a $100 bet here was about right. If anyone came over the top of me with a big raise, I would certainly fold. It might be better to bet $150 here, which might get a player out who would stay in for $100, but then I would have more speculative money invested.

Two players "slow-called" my $100 bet; the big blind and the button both folded. This was about what I expected to happen. In three-way action, unfortunately, the turn card was one of those scary cards, the J. Now, any 9 or an A-K would have a straight. Also, the board now had four cards in the "playing range" (the range of cards with which players tend to see the flop), thus greatly increasing the possibility of someone having two pair. The good news was that I now had a flush draw. Would you bet here? If so, how much?

First of all, I had to admit to myself that I really didn't like this situation. At this point, I was probably beat by a bigger queen, two pair, or even a straight. If I checked, any of those hands or a bluffer might make a big bet that would probably cause me to fold. I chose to make one last $100 investment, mostly "out of fear" – and since no one had raised my first $100 bet. Another way of looking at it was that if I didn't continue to bet, someone else might make a big bet and drive me out.

When both opponents just called, I wondered if a $200 bet might have folded one of them. The river card was the 5 – another scary card, as it put three spades on the board. The good news was that I now had two pair. And now that I could beat a "big queen" (queen with a big kicker), I might have the best hand. But, I saw no good reason to bet. If I was beat, there might be a big raise.

I didn't like it at all when the next player bet $300. That was just about the amount I would bet if I was looking at a good hand, such as a flush. I would rather settle for a likely-to-be-called $300 than a greedy all-in bet that might not be called. The next player folded. Would you call the $300 here?

It occurred to me that he might have started with something like J-10 (maybe suited) and didn't raise on the turn because I might have had a straight. But now that I had checked (perhaps disclosing a high pair), he decided to push his two pair. Or, he might be bluffing. This was one of those online times when I wished I could see my opponent.

So, I called. I really expected to see two spades or a 9. However, he was betting his J-8 suited, so my two pair were inches better than his two pair. Easy game, isn't it?

So, the next time you find yourself doing the Tiny Tim tiptoeing thing (or maybe it is more like walking through a mine field), remember that the cards will look just as scary to most or all of the other players who are facing your bet. Keep a stiff upper lip and you just might salvage the pot.

Answer to the thought problem in the last issue: In Omaha high, which of the following two hands wins more frequently against a random hand: A-J-A-8 double-suited or A-10-A-7 double-suited? Answer: A-10-A-7 wins slightly more, because it makes a straight more frequently, and takes more cards away from opponents' straights.