Did I Play This Hand OK?

Much of the e-mail I've received recently from players has centered around two recurring themes: "How well did I play this hand?" and "How do I figure the odds for various hold'em situations that seem to come up over and over again?"

Steve e-mailed me regarding an online no-limit hold'em tournament he recently played. He was curious about whether he played a couple of hands correctly or not. After reading all the way through his note, I was convinced that he really knew the answer, but wanted some corroboration from another set of eyes and ears.

Steve said, "We started out with $2,000 in chips and I arrived at the first break in good shape with $3,885, almost doubling my stack. On the very first hand after the break's conclusion, I was in middle position with A-K offsuit. The blinds were $30-$60 at this point. A player in early position bet and I decided to flat-call. Four players took the flop, which was A-6-3. The first two players checked and I bet $300. Two of my opponents called, and one folded.

"The turn card was a jack. I bet $300 once again. My opponent called with A-3 and I lost the hand.

"I was dealt A-K again a few hands later. I was in middle position and all three of the early-position players folded. The guy on my right was short-stacked and raised $300, leaving him with a mere $700 in chips. After my last A-K debacle, I decided to raise to $1,500 in order to protect my hand from limpers and to play the pot heads up against the short-stacked player who would be all in.

"Each of my opponents accommodated me by folding, except the player on the button. He called my raise, and that call represented an investment of approximately 50 percent of his chips. So, there were three of us: the short-stacked all-in player, the guy who called my raise for half of his stack, and me. The flop was A-10-3. I bet my last $1,500, and now I was all in, too, but I liked my hand. After all, I held top pair with the best possible kicker, and the flop didn't look threatening at all. No flush draw was possible and any straight would have to be a gutshot, so I was somewhat surprised when my opponent called. He held A-10, and from that point on, I was drawing dead to a king on one of the last two cards or two running straight cards, and the latter was a real long shot. The turn brought a queen and a little bit of hope, but the river was a 6, and I was toast.

"I find it hard to believe that someone with A-10 offsuit would call an all-in raise from one player, along with a reraise that would require him to wager half of his chips. What happened?"

Steve, I think you know the answer to the first hand, since you played the same cards differently the second time around. You should have raised with big slick rather than flat-called, and here's why: Your goal in raising was to eliminate worse hands that might get lucky and outdraw you. And that's exactly what happened. If you had raised instead of called, it's likely your raise would have caused the player holding A-3 to release his hand before the flop. To your credit, you recognized this and played the second hand correctly, despite its unfortunate outcome.

It's as hard for me as it is for you to envision someone calling for half of his stack with a hand as weak as A-10, but that's exactly what he did. Nevertheless, skill and luck are intertwined in poker, and once you used your skill to make a big all-in raise that he called, the remainder of the hand was simply a matter of luck, and it was your misfortune to lose out.

So, you were one for two on those hands. One was played incorrectly, and the other was played properly. While the results went against you both times, there's not much you could have done differently about the second hand. Once you were all in, any leverage you might have had over your opponent ceased to exist, and he was fortunate to catch precisely the right cards.

These situations were similar because each of your opponents flopped two pair and you were left with only a few outs for a win. Because you each held an ace, your only out was to hit your kicker, catch a miracle runner-runner straight when your opponent held A-10, or hope the board counterfeited your opponent's two pair by pairing a card higher than his second pair – and the odds against any of these events occurring were quite long. What was different was that in the first situation, you probably could have eliminated the guy who flopped two pair by raising, thereby making it very costly as well as highly unlikely that he would have called with a hand as weak as A-3 offsuit. In the second confrontation, you did the right thing by raising, however your opponent – who foolishly called your raise at the price and risk of half of his stack of chips – simply got very lucky and outdrew you. Just how foolish were they? The chances of flopping two pair are less than 3 percent, and those are pretty long odds, indeed.

Another reader e-mailed a somewhat related question to me. "If I have one out" he inquired, "and the turn and river are still to come, isn't it really one out twice? And isn't this the same thing as having two outs?" He also asked if I know the odds of pairing your kicker on either the flop or the river. "For example," he wrote, "suppose that I hold A-10 and flop a 10. What are the chances that I will pair my kicker by catching an ace?"

Well, it's close to two outs twice, and lots of players use this as a form of shorthand for figuring their chances of catching the card they need, but it's not really accurate. If you have A-10 and either an ace or a 10 flops, you have three outs to catch a second pair. On the flop, you have a 12.5 percent chance of improving. Another way of expressing this is to say that the odds are 7-to-1 against you. It's the same thing, but expressed differently. Percentages state your chances of improving; the other – the odds – delivers the bad news first by telling you the odds against making your hand. If you figure to make your hand 12.5 percent of the time, the odds against completing it are 7-to-1.

If you want to calculate your chances of improving from the turn to the river, it's different, simply because one chance for improvement – the turn – has vanished, and now you'll either make your hand on the river or you won't. On the turn, with only one more card to come, you have a 6.5 percent chance of success, or 13.33-to-1 odds against pairing your kicker.

There are some books that will teach you how to calculate these odds, and it's not really difficult to do. Learning how to do these calculations will help you understand the essence of these draws a lot better. Hold'em Poker by David Sklansky will help you with this concept, and my second book, More Hold'em Excellence: A Winner for Life, contains a chapter on hold'em arithmetic that takes you through these and similar calculations. You can check out my book at my website, www.loukrieger.com.

But to help you out right here and right now, here is a chart that provides odds and outs for common hold'em situations on the flop:

I hope this helps. From time to time, I'll do columns with some of the more interesting reader questions I receive.