Maximizing Small-Stakes Hold'em Winnings - Part III

This is the third in a series of columns discussing hands in the new book Small Stakes Hold'em, published by Two Plus Two Publishing and authored by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth. The book targets experienced low-limit players who are trying to make a substantial income by playing in these games. A number of hands have been selected from the book, and the format is to present the problem, the answer stated in the book, and then my thoughts. I recommend that you first try to answer the problem yourself before reading the book answer or my thoughts. Remember that all problems are based on a loose low-limit game.

Hand No. 1: You have the A 7 in middle position. Two players limp in, you limp in, and so does the button. The small blind raises and the big blind calls, as does everyone else. There are 12 small bets in the pot. The flop is J 6 4, giving you the nut-flush draw with an overcard. The small blind bets, the big blind folds, and both limpers call. You decide to raise. The button folds and the small blind reraises. Both limpers call, and you call. There are 12 big bets in the pot. The turn is the J, pairing the board. The small blind bets. The first limper now raises. The second limper folds. There are 15 big bets in the pot. What should you do?

Book Answer: Call. There are 15 big bets in this large pot and it is two bets to you, so you are getting 7.5-to-1 on a call. The board is paired, so you might be drawing dead. Nevertheless, you should call. Usually, the raiser will have no more than three jacks, and you will be drawing live. Because the pot is so large, you would have to be quite certain that you were drawing dead to fold. There is no way to be certain at this point, so you should call. Also notice that if you should make your flush and it is good, you should collect at least one more big bet at the river. This compensates for those times that one of your opponents reraises on the turn.

Prior to presenting this example, the authors point out that drawing dead is not as expensive as folding a live draw. Consequently, if the pot is big, you should be relatively certain that you are drawing dead before you fold. They contend that strong betting alone is not enough evidence. If the board is paired, a player betting strongly is more likely to have trips than a full house. You need additional specific evidence of a full house to fold. Without such evidence, folding a flush draw in a large pot just because the board has paired is a big mistake.

My Thoughts: You are getting 7.5-to-1 to call and you have eight clean outs (don't count the 6), which is a 5-to-1 shot. Therefore, you have an overlay. One could argue that this overlay alone covers the times when you are drawing dead. But, there are some serious problems not addressed in the authors' analysis. First, not only did the board pair on the turn, it was the top flop card that paired. This is far more serious than the board pairing with the bottom or middle flop card. This is especially true when there is a lot of action on the flop. Second, we now have a new player, the first preflop limper, coming out of the woodwork and raising the turn bet. While he probably has just three jacks, it is suspicious that he did not raise the flop bet with a top pair of jacks at that time. Of course, he may have been fearful of the small blind having an overpair, given the preflop action. But the limper's action now would also be consistent with someone who had flopped a small set and slow-played on the flop. When this is the case, you are drawing dead. Third, the small blind was still willing to lead out on the turn into a large field when the top flop card paired. While he most likely has just an overpair, he might well have raised preflop with something like A-J suited, K-J suited, or even Q-J or J-10 suited. In low-limit games, some players like to raise from their small blind with big suited cards after a large number of players have limped in. When this is the case, the K, Q, and 10 may not all be outs for your hand. If you make your flush and it happens to give someone a full house, you will lose additional bets on the river. With two opponents who are betting and raising, it is not just the turn raiser you have to beat. The number of ways you are either currently beat or may get beat on the river after making your flush are increased. Finally, it may get raised again or even capped back to you. If you then decide to fold, you have cost yourself two big bets and never get a chance to make your flush. If you call because the pot is that much larger, you will have invested four big bets and may not even be drawing live.

When all factors are considered, I think the decision is close.

Hand No. 2: This is a continuation of Hand No. 1. Assume that you called, and the small blind called. There are 18 big bets in the pot. The river is the 6, which completes your nut flush but puts two pair on the table. The small blind checks. The turn raiser bets. What should you do?

Book Answer: The most likely hand for him to have had on fourth street was three jacks, so your completed flush is probably no good; if your read is correct, the river gave him a full house. Still, you should almost always call for one more bet in this huge, 19-bet pot. He might have jacks full, but he also might have a big pair. He may have raised on the turn with a flush draw. Or, the large pot may have encouraged him to try a desperate bluff. None of these scenarios is particularly likely, but that is fine. If you win as little as 5 percent of the time, you profit by calling. It is almost impossible to read your opponent for having a full house with 95 percent certainty. Do not fold in large pots for one bet on the river if there is some chance you might win.

My Thoughts: It is difficult to give both opponents hands that you can beat, given the board and betting action. The book answer fails to address some important facts. First, there is a third player still in the hand. His presence is not considered, just the bettor's. Second, your call does not end the action. What do you do if the small blind check-raises? Based on the book's logic, one might call again because the pot is that much bigger and your pot odds are better.

The bettor having a big pocket pair is unlikely, given the action. With a big pocket pair, the turn raiser would have raised preflop rather than limp. It is also very unlikely that with a big pocket pair, he would be betting the river now that the board is double-paired. I know of no player who is so shy as to limp in with pocket queens, kings, or aces preflop, but becomes so lionhearted as to raise on the turn when the top flop card pairs and then proceeds to bet the river when the board becomes double-paired. Both this hand and the previous one illustrate the problem with cold-calling a turn raise on a drawing hand when the top flop card pairs. You have now cost yourself three big, double-sized bets, only to improve and lose anyway.

Editor's note: Jim Brier has co-authored a new book with Bob Ciaffone, Middle Limit Holdem Poker. It is available through Card Player.