Bowl Picture: 2004 Season

The bowl season is the zenith of the college football campaign and one of the favorite times for handicappers. That fact has not changed despite the increasing number of bowls in recent seasons and the large number of marginal teams that are required to help fill the expanding bowl lineup. As far as football bettors are concerned, the more wagering opportunities, the better. That's especially true in the bowl season, because of the longer preparation and research time available to thoroughly investigate all the angles of a matchup. Also, because the lines on the games are posted a few weeks (rather than a few days) before the games, the sometimes greater line movement also presents some hedging opportunities. (I generally do not recommend this practice for inexperienced bettors.)

As is always the case, the goal of handicappers is to identify the high-percentage wagering situations, minimize "Element X" as much as possible, and capture the best pointspread value. Here's one look at how some of the percentages have fallen in the bowl seasons of recent years.

Underdogs tend to do a little better in the earlier bowls. This idea has held up in recent seasons, and it makes perfect sense. The so-called "minor" bowls nearly always feature the lower-tier bowl teams, many of which had to scramble at the end of the season to merely finish above .500 or to grab one of their conference's allotted bowl spots. Many such teams are young and frequently inconsistent. And, because they didn't have such great seasons, they usually don't have a great following of fans. Many such favorites often don't have the sustained firepower or defensive prowess to decisively put away an opponent of similar strength at a neutral site. And the mere fact that one team is an underdog in a bowl game usually helps that team concentrate a bit more in its practice and preparation. Over the last three seasons, dogs in pre-New Year's Day bowls are 33-20 versus the spread. (One game was a pick 'em. And I have included last season's Humanitarian Bowl in this group even though it was moved to Jan. 3 for TV purposes.)

Favorites tend to do better in the big bowls on New Year's Day and after. With much more at stake in these games, and with much more fan support, the best of the best teams tend to do a little better as bowl favorites against the spread, as they're the best at exposing and exploiting the flaws of another high-ranking opponent. And, much like many of the title games in the NFL, some of the scores in the "big bowls" can become distorted when turnovers and/or early scores get a quality opponent on the run and make it take lots of risks when playing from behind. Last season, favorites in New Year's Day bowls and after (excluding the Humanitarian, of course) were only 4-5 versus the spread. But they're 14-10 (one pick 'em) over the last three seasons.

Because of the nature of the matchups and the scheduling in some specific bowls, underdogs in those games have racked up some rather interesting results over a period of years. Here's a look at a few that have tended to hold up.

Dogs have gone 11-5 in the last 16 years in the Independence Bowl. With all due respect to Shreveport's development and growth in recent years, let's face it, this Northern Louisiana city is not one of the "garden spots" of the United States. The weather for the game is often a little wet, and sometimes a little muddy. Although northern neighbor Arkansas covered as a 2.5-point favorite in last year's 27-14 victory over Missouri, the underdog in the Independence Bowl is 11-5 the last 16 years.

The underdog is 12-1-2 the last 15 years in the Sun Bowl. Last year's contest was a high-scoring affair, with favored Minnesota winning 31-30 over Oregon, but the Gophers failed to cover the 4-point impost. However, many previous Sun Bowls have been ho-hum contests, featuring a very disappointed also-ran team from the Pac-10 or Big Ten, or both. Fans of those schools much prefer sites such as the Rose Bowl (of course), or the Fiesta in Arizona, or the Holiday in San Diego. When such teams get sent to El Paso instead, their holiday fan following decreases. Also, the sometimes windy conditions at the Sun Bowl often inhibit scoring somewhat, giving the underdogs a little better chance to cover.

The underdog is 9-2 the past 12 years in the Peach Bowl (one of the games was a pick 'em). In contrast to the Sun Bowl, the Peach has been very successful in recent years in presenting teams from the ACC and SEC that are within reasonable driving range of Atlanta. The weather conditions are comfortable for the fans indoors in the Georgia Dome. And the football history and tradition in the Southeast often means that bragging rights are at stake. There have been many swings in momentum in the Peach Bowl, spurring on some rabidly supported trailing teams. Last year, 5-point underdog Clemson got the early lead and upset Tennessee, 27-14, before more than 75,000 fans who made up a sea of orange.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.