Young Quarterbacks

Handicapping games involving young quarterbacks (QBs) is always an interesting challenge. Even though we're well into the 2005 football season, there are still going to be many instances when quarterbacks will be making their first start for their teams, or when young QBs will be facing situations they have never faced before. Over the course of more than three decades of handicapping, I've developed a few guidelines to help simplify the situation.



My overall rule of thumb is that once young quarterbacks get a chance to play for their teams, they must continually prove themselves. We all know that the media love to focus on QBs, even while they are still in high school. The Internet is rife with websites devoted to following the recruiting process of high-school hotshot QBs throughout the nation. Their careers are followed even from the time they are sophomores, including which schools are interested in them, which schools they intend to visit, which schools they give their verbal commitment, and, finally, the "Super Bowl Sunday" of recruiting services – which teams snag them with a letter of intent on "signing day." Newspapers, magazines, websites, and radio and TV shows are then flooded with ratings, rankings, and discussions that generally lionize the high-school exploits of the recruits headed to the various colleges. But in terms of handicapping, they haven't proven a single thing.



No matter how highly rated, no matter what their size or speed, and no matter how strong their arms, they all still need to prove themselves under fire on the field of battle. And the number of hotshot QBs coming out of both high school and college who fizzle when they get to the next level is truly impressive. Many a high-school blue-chipper disappears into anonymity before he even gets a shot in the pros. And many lower-rated, skinnier QBs who are smaller and slower, with weaker arms – but who are smarter and more dedicated – end up stars in college or in the Pro Bowl in the NFL.



As teams this season turn to young QBs due to injury of or disappointment in their previous starter, you might want to keep some of these ideas in mind.



Any QB making his first start (in either college or the pros) must first show me he has the intelligence, poise, and enough ability to win at all. If he can do that, he must then show he can win on the road (especially in college) with opposing fans screaming for their own team.



Then, he must prove he can beat a good team; then, beat a good team on the road.



The next test? Beat a very good team (say, a top 10 team in college or a top Super Bowl contender in the NFL). Then, he must beat a very good team on the road. If you think that's a common occurrence, just check out the record of "Practically Perfect" Peyton Manning. He couldn't get Tennessee past Florida while in college. And he's 2-8 versus the Patriots in the pros, including 0-6 straight up in Foxboro (1-4-1 against the spread) and 0-2 in the playoffs. In fact, Manning was 3-13 straight up as a rookie with Indy in 1998, failing to earn a victory (or cover) until his fifth start.



The Dan Marinos and Ben Roethlisbergers of the NFL world are few and far between. The Heath Shulers and Ryan Leafs are much more common. In fact, I consider it a virtual "automatic" play to go against a rookie NFL QB in his first start. No matter how well he played in college, how rapidly he has supposedly learned the system, and how much he has advanced in practice, his first game in the crucible of battle against the hardened pros of the NFL is going to be the severest test of his career. In fact, most NFL coaches go out of their way to alter their normal defensive game plan or style, throwing every blitz, stunt, and disguise in their playbook at the youngster until he makes them "pay" by generating a few touchdowns. I always anticipate more takeaways than normal for a defense when facing a rookie QB in his first start.



Lastly, very few young NFL QBs ever win their first playoff game, especially on the road. Once again, I anticipate more turnovers than normal by his team.



Here's one last notion. Just because a quarterback's career gets off to a very slow and rocky start when he is young, don't let those memories linger in your mind forever. It is just natural for QBs to develop over time, becoming "smarter" with more experience – recognizing defenses quicker, becoming more patient in the pocket, and learning to dump the ball off for short gains or throw it away. It's when defenses "slow down" for young, bright, and talented QBs that they become very valuable to handicappers, regardless of the hype they generated – or any ensuing failure – earlier in their careers. For example, the Chargers were all set to replace Drew Brees last year. Then, top pick Philip Rivers held out in the preseason, Brees reasserted himself, and San Diego went from 4-12 in 2003 to 12-4 in 2004, including 13-1-2 versus the spread! For my money (and I mean that literally), it takes young QBs about two or three years of playing time for the "lights to go on" and for the "game to slow down." For Brees, it turned out to be three.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.