Counting Outs - Part I

In games like hold'em and Omaha, quite a few players are not capable of counting their outs properly. In fact, a lot of people don't have a clue what they are actually trying to calculate! On numerous occasions, I have seen people call with hands that had very few effective outs when they actually thought they had a huge draw. At the same time, there are people who habitually underestimate the power of their hands – for instance, by neglecting the fact that their hand may actually be good at the moment and doesn't need any improvement! Let me provide two examples, one of each:



Example No. 1


The game: pot-limit Omaha



The situation: Hero is holding J-10-9-X unsuited, on a flop of Q-8-4 with two hearts. Player A bets the pot and gets called by player B, and then Hero calls as well, because "he's got a nine-out draw."



The flaw in his reasoning: Actually, in this case Hero's reasoning has many flaws. First of all, while he thinks he has nine outs, there are a few cards that complete his straight that at the same time also put a possible flush on the board. And with a pot-sized bet and a call, it is not just remotely possible that a flush draw may be out there, but actually quite likely. In addition to that, it is quite possible that one of his opponents has at least part of the same straight draw that Hero does, meaning that even if he makes his hand, he still may have to split. All in all, it should be clear that while Hero is actually counting his hand as nine full outs, he probably has significantly fewer good cards than that.



But that is not all there is to it. Perhaps even more importantly, Hero seems to think that hitting one of his outs automatically means winning the pot. But against likely hands for his opponents to hold, like a set and/or a flush draw, it is far from certain that if he makes his hand on the turn, it will still be the best on the river. After all, his opponents may have a bunch of redraws to beat him. And in addition to that, if they put him on exactly the hand he's got, the nut straight, they actually may be able to bet him off his hand on the river by taking advantage of a scare card that has fallen – even when that card has not helped them at all.



Example No. 2



The game: limit hold'em



The situation: Hero has raised before the flop with the A K. Three people see a flop of J 8 4. Everyone checks to Hero, who bets and gets called in one place. When another 4 comes on the turn, the one remaining player suddenly bets into him. Hero thinks for a moment and then folds. His reasoning: I've got only six outs, and since this pot is fairly small, I don't get the proper odds to call this bet.



The flaw in his reasoning: Because he has an unimproved A-K with someone betting into him, he automatically assumes that he will need to improve to win. But it is necessary to count your outs in order to see if you get the proper odds only if you know for a fact that you are behind. And in this case, there is actually a good chance that Hero is holding the best hand, and that it is his opponent who is drawing! While his opponent could have a jack, an 8, or a small pocket pair (a 4 being quite unlikely, the way the betting has gone), it is equally possible that his opponent is simply making a move, using the two fours on the board to bet Hero off his hand. In fact, it is probably more likely that his opponent is bluffing or semibluffing here than betting with the best hand. So, the people who automatically start looking at their number of outs in this situation fail to take into account two simple but very important factors:



1. What am I up against?



2. Do I need any improvement at all?



The Correct Reasoning

The correct procedure when it comes to counting outs is this. First, you have to analyze the hand(s) that you may be up against; then, weigh the likelihood of your opponent having one specific hand as opposed to another. Then, if you are almost 100 percent certain that you don't have the best hand, you start calculating the number of cards that could give you the best hand – again weighing the chances of improving to the best hand, based upon this previous analysis. (If you think there is a chance of, say, 10 percent that you may actually have the best hand even when it seems you are drawing, you should of course take this into consideration.) Then, if there are more cards to come, try to estimate your chances of improving to the best hand on the turn, and having it hold up on the river. For instance, if you have calculated that on the flop there are about 10 cards in the deck that could give you a possible winner, and based upon the estimate of what you may be up against, you judge that you may have seven or eight outs effectively (because you may be up against a better draw, because you may hit a card that will improve your opponent more than it improves you, or simply because you think one of your opponents may have an extremely strong hand like a set), you are ready for the final step. If you think that even if you hit your hand, your opponents may still have lots of redraws on the river, you should probably make another adjustment. For instance, if you suspect that your opponents may well have about 13 or 14 outs collectively to redraw against you, you should probably estimate your draw at about six outs instead of the seven or eight you did earlier. So, that means that if either the pot size or the implied odds warrant calling on the flop for a six-outer, you should do it – and if the odds are not there, you should fold.



Of course, there is much more to counting outs than just these few simple steps. In my upcoming book written with Dew Mason (who is a mathematician and knows a lot more about odds and calculations than I do), we come up with an excellent and extensive counting method that will make it easy for you to determine whether you still belong in a hand. It takes into account the drawing odds and your expectation with two cards to come, as well as for just one card (for instance, if you choose to "take one off" on the flop), and it also takes into account the possibility that your "draw" may actually be the current best hand.



Here's one more thing: In your analysis of potential redraws on the river, it is important to understand the impact of the betting structure of the game you are in. If it's a limit game, you can rest assured that you will get called on the turn if your opponents are drawing to a bigger hand than the one that you have just made. But if you are playing pot- or no-limit and make your hand on the turn, in most cases you will be able to bet your opponents off their draws – and you should take this into consideration. This means that in the same situation described above, in which you analyzed your hand as having about six outs in a limit game, you may actually have seven or seven and a half if the betting structure is pot- or no-limit. This is because of the distinct possibility that your opponents will fold their (re)draws to any decent-sized bet that you make on the turn.



Some Final Words

Counting your outs properly is an extremely complicated matter. In Part II of this column, I will dig into the matter a little deeper by analyzing one of the good counting methods presented in recent poker literature.

Rolf "Ace" Slotboom has been a professional money player since 1998, specializing in limit hold'em and pot-limit Omaha. He is the tournament reporter for almost all major European tournaments, and is the Dutch commentator for Eurosport's EPT broadcasts. His first book, Hold'em on the Come: Limit Hold'em Strategy for Drawing Hands, discusses in depth the process of counting your outs properly. The book can be ordered through http://www.danbpoker.com/, Amazon, or Rolf's own site, www.rolfslotboom.com.