No-Limit Hold'em Hand Analysis - Part I

I'm on a plane to the L.A. Poker Classic (LAPC) main event (though it will be long over by the time you read this), and I haven't played any no-limit hold'em in a week. I don't like to go into a major tournament cold. In fact, I usually make it a point to play several of the smaller events leading up to a major tournament, just to keep my poker brain sharp. At the very least, I like to play a bit the day before the event – to get a feel for the cardroom, familiarize myself with the chips, perhaps learn how some of the satellite qualifiers play, and maybe even learn some of the house rules that seem to be different at every event. I thought I'd selfishly use this column to do some no-limit hold'em hand analysis – anything to keep myself thinking about how I will approach the LAPC and the World Poker Tour Invitational over the next two weeks.



Here's a hand I played in the Borgata Winter Poker Open main event. I think it can be instructive on several levels. Let's analyze it each step of the way.



With the blinds at $400-$800 with a $100 ante, Brian Haveson, a very good and experienced tournament player, opens from the cutoff for $3,000.



Question No. 1: What's Brian's range?


Matt's answer: It's very, very wide. Let's say something like 2-2 to A-A, A-2 or better, K-8 or better, K-5 suited or better, Q-9 or better, Q-8 suited or better, J-10, J-9 suited or better, connectors down to 7-6 offsuit, and suited connectors down to 5-4.



The button and small blind fold, and it's $2,200 for me to call from the big blind. I look down at pocket fours. I have about $35,000 left after posting, and Brian has about twice that much.



Question No. 2: What's my action?



Matt's answer: I have about 50 percent equity against Brian's range (based on the above estimate). Since I'm getting $5,200-$2,200, or about 2.4-1 immediate pot odds, I don't think folding is a reasonable choice, even though I'm out of position. So, that basically narrows it down to three options: call, reraise to about $9,000, or reraise all in to $36,000 total. Let's look at each of the choices.



Reraise all-in: This play risks $35,000 to win $5,200, with about 30 percent equity if called. I estimate that Brian will call such a big bet only about 10 percent of the time. So, this play has an expected value (EV) = .9 x $5,200 + .1(.3 x $73,400 – $35,000) = $3,380. Clearly, moving in here is better than folding (which has an EV = 0), but is it the best play? What about the other options?



Reraise to $9,000: The problem with this play is that it opens the door for Brian to move in on me, in which case I would have to fold. Let's say Brian moves me in 15 percent of the time, calls 25 percent of the time, and folds 60 percent of the time. That makes the EV = .15(-$8,200) + .6($5,200) + .25(EV if Brian calls the reraise) = $1,890 + .25(EV if Brian calls the reraise). Since I'm definitely a negative EV if Brian calls my reraise (a disaster not quite as bad as having Brian move in on me, but still pretty bad), this play of reraising to $9,000 is pretty clearly worse than reraising all in. (There might be other reasons to make the reraise to $9,000 – for example, to provide cover for the times I make that reraise with A-A – but that's beyond the scope of this column.)



Call: It's very hard to estimate the EV of this choice. One way to do it is to look at my equity against Brian's range (50 percent) and the pot size ($7,400 after I call), and say that my immediate equity is $3,700 – $2,200 = $1,500. Now, do I have more EV based on the post-flop action, or less? I think I have more, because if Brian has an unpaired hand, (1) he'll miss the flop two-thirds of the time, (2) I'll have a pretty good idea when those times are, and (3) I should be able to find a way to take down the pot. I can't, however, give myself too much additional EV, as I'll be out of position for the rest of the hand. Still, I think I have enough EV to make this a better choice than moving in – especially if I'm wrong about how often Brian will call if I move in.



When I was playing this hand, I thought it was an obvious call. After this analysis, I'm not so sure. All in looks like a fine candidate, as well. With a stack size just 10 percent smaller, I think all in would be the clear choice. The biggest considerations are how often I think Brian will fold to a reraise, and how well I think I can play postflop with this hand, in this position, against this opponent.



Let's get back to the hand. I call, and the flop comes A-5-3 rainbow – one of the few ace-high flops that I won't just check and fold.



Question No. 3: Check or bet?


Matt's answer: This is one of those situations in which I have a very tough time getting a better hand to fold if I bet out. No way does Brian fold an ace to my bet. He probably would fold 6-6 to 9-9, but he might get stubborn with those hands, and is likely to get stubborn with 10-10 to K-K. At the same time, Brian will almost certainly fold any hand worse than mine if I lead that flop. That's why I like checking here. I might pick off a bluff, I might find a way to get a better hand to fold at some later point (or at least I'll have a better shot than I would by leading out), and I might suddenly read Brian for strength and save a bet against his (few) strong hands.

I check. Brian bets $6,000 into the $7,400 pot.



Question No. 4: What now?



Matt's answer: My options are to check-raise all in for $33,000 total, check-raise to a smaller amount, like $15,000, or call. I'm not considering folding. I don't narrow Brian's range at all based on the flop action, and my equity against his range actually went up to 52 percent after that flop (those four outs from the straight draw make a real difference).



This decision, perhaps even more than the others, cannot be made in a vacuum. Think about how to proceed and we'll finish the hand, and the analysis, in my next column.



Matt Matros is the author of The Making of a Poker Player, which is available online at http://www.cardplayer.com/.