CPR (Cost Per Round) - Part II

To win tournaments, you must know CPR. First let's review Part I (available at CardPlayer.com). Calculate your CPR - cost per round. Divide your chip count by your CPR to get M. Your basic strategy depends on M, in the chart below:

Your first major adjustment relates to the other stacks and the tournament payoff scale. For example, if your M is 5, but there are several players with a very low M and there's a big jump in the money for finishing one or two places higher, it is usually right to tighten up and let them go broke first. This situation occurs when there are a lot of players left, but only a few to go before the money. For example, in the $25,000 Bellagio WPT Championship, finishing 100th was worth $44,000, but finishing one spot lower was worth nothing. Don't take this too far, though. You don't want to significantly decrease your chance of winning several million dollars by trying to lock up $44,000. Similar situations occur just before the final table. (Note that the size of your bankroll and how much prestige value winning the tournament has for you come into play here.)

The second adjustment you have to make occurs at the final table. Here, the situation gets even more complicated. The blinds and antes are often huge, so there are frequently players with a low M. If the table is shorthanded, an M of 6, which would have provided 60 hands at a full table, now gives you a lot fewer hands to play before you run out of money. For example, if it is threehanded, you have only 18 hands, so your starting requirements go way down.

There are many psychological factors that you must incorporate into your final-table play. This is also the time when the prize money starts to escalate dramatically, so you have a much greater chance of stealing a pot from someone who appears to be more interested in ensuring a reasonable payoff than risking a knockout at this late stage. An old adage states, "If you want to win tournaments, you can't be afraid to lose them." While this is true, many players are more interested in maximizing their chance of getting a reasonable payoff. Using the recent $25,000 Bellagio tournament as an example, first place is nearly $4 million, while third place is still more than $1 million. Let's say there are four players left, two short stacks and two big stacks. It is often easy for the big stacks to steal, both from each other and from the short stacks. The other big stack doesn't want to risk a loss that would result in a fourth-place finish. Both small stacks are hoping the other busts out first, so that they can lock up a $1 million payday. Obviously, this depends on the specific players, but it is something of which you must be constantly aware.

I will again recommend reading the excellent Harrington on Hold'em, Volume II. Dan discusses a lot of these situations in great detail. He also provides you with problems. Test yourself on these problems, and even if you don't always agree with his answers, you will get a lot of insight into final-table strategies that you might use and that your opponents may well be using.

You must make adjustments based on your table image. If you have a tight, solid image, but your M is getting low, try to steal a pot or two. If you have a wild, bluffing image, try to hold out for a quasi-legitimate hand. You may get action from a very weak hand and double or even triple up.

Another factor is whether there are just blinds or blinds and antes. Let's say you have just lost a big pot, and a few hands later you find yourself on the button with $800 left. If the blinds are $200-$400 with no ante, CPR = $600, an all-in raise won't scare the big blind, who has to call for only another $400. You have seven more free hands before your blinds, so if you have nothing, wait. If the blinds are $100-$200 with a $25 ante, even though the CPR is $550, about the same as before, a raise to $800 now may be enough to scare out the blinds.

I will end this column with one final piece of advice for final-table play. I am often a relatively fast player, and I have often played too quickly in some key situations. Now, I try to force myself to slow down and think things through very carefully. Make sure you take your time. There is no bonus for speedy play. Watch John Juanda at a final table and you'll see how carefully he makes his decisions. Then watch the final hand between Greg Raymer and rising star David Williams. Even with millions on the line, David, who is young and impetuous, makes his final decisions at warp speed. Needless to say, he got a warped result. Yes, he might have done the same thing after more thought, but an extra minute or two certainly wouldn't have hurt.