Raise on the Turn or the River

Phil Hellmuth recently wrote a column titled "Jennifer Harman and the Big Game" about a limit hold'em hand he played against her in that game. You can read it at www.CardPlayer.com.

In the hand, Jennifer held pocket aces in the small blind. Phil raised from the cutoff position, and Jennifer reraised. Phil elected to call. On the flop of K 4 4, Jennifer bet, Phil raised, and Jennifer called. She checked and called when the 8 came on the turn. On the river, Jennifer check-raised after the 5 fell. Phil reraised, Jennifer called, and he showed pocket kings.

Phil wrote that Jennifer's check-raise on the river was an excellent play, as most players would raise on the turn. Phil is correct both in his contention that Jennifer is a wonderful player and that she played the hand exceptionally well, even though she was unlucky and lost.

Upon reading that column, I decided to discuss the criteria that top players use to decide whether to raise on the turn or on the river when they believe they have the best hand. Because you would like to play like they do, we will look at it from your perspective.

In general, you want to look at these factors:

• The number of players

• Your position

• How aggressive your opponent is

• The nature of the flop and turn

• The hands you believe the opponent holds

• What sort of scare cards can fall on the river

The number of players: In general, you always want to raise on the turn when you have the best hand and are facing two or more opponents. At least one of them will probably not be around to pay you off on the river, and you need to get the extra bets in now. Also, one could fold to your raise, making it more likely that you will win. Only when you are heads up should you weigh the options of raising on the turn or the river.

Your position: It is easier to delay your raise from the turn to the river if you are in position. If your opponent bets on the turn and you call, and he crosses you up and checks on the river, you will get at least one bet in. If you are out of position and decide to check-raise on the river, your opponent may check behind you, and you will collect nothing on that street. Jennifer's play from out of position was much tougher than if she were in position, so she relied on some of the other factors.

How aggressive your opponent is: When you decide to wait until the river to raise, you are relying on your opponent to keep betting. The more aggressive he is, the more likely it is that this will happen. Some opponents fear the river so much that they tend to check almost no matter what hits. Against these players, you have to raise on the turn. On the other hand, others just keep bulling their way totally unfazed by scare cards, your calls, or anything else. They believe they have the best hand and are willing to back it. If you raise on the turn, some of these players are good enough to realize they are beat and can make a good laydown, but they will call a raise on the river.

In addition, raising on the river works well against frequent bluffers. In this case, your raise will shut them down. Waiting until the river gains you an extra bet against frequent bluffers, while breaking even against aggressive players.

The nature of the flop and turn: If the flop presents few or no draws, your betting opponent is representing a made hand. If your hand is better than his, you can wait until the river to raise. In Phil's hand, the flop of K 4 4 seemed ideal for Jennifer's purpose. There was no chance that Phil was on a draw. If the flop has several draws and your opponent bets his draws, raise on the turn. He will always call because of the draw, while he may decide to surrender on the river if you keep on calling and he does not get there. Only if your opponent will bet his busted draws all the time can you wait until the river to raise.

The hands you believe the opponent holds: Reading opponents and hands is a subject beyond the scope of this column. Be aware that if you are going to wait until the river to raise, you must believe that you have a good understanding of your opponent's tendencies and his likely holdings on this particular hand. The harder you find it to read his cards or intentions, the more often you should raise on the turn.

What sort of scare cards can fall on the river: This is perhaps the most important consideration, and I left it for last so that we can examine it in more detail. There are two kinds of scare cards that can come: those that scare the opponent into checking and those that scare you into just calling.

On boards with several draws, raise on the turn even if you are sure your opponent has a made hand instead of a draw. The problem is that if a draw gets there, it may scare your opponent into checking, and cost you a bet even if that card did not improve either hand. If you were on a draw and made it on the turn, you also should probably raise. Again, the problem is that another card relevant to the draw may be irrelevant to you but may scare off your opponent.

For example, I have seen a number of players make the nut flush on the turn (let's say they hold the A 5, the flop is K 6 3, and the turn is the 9) but flat-call a turn bet, intending to raise on the river. This works well when a blank hits, but if a fourth diamond comes, their opponent will check and possibly not even call. So, they congratulate themselves on a clever play when no suited card comes, but miss bets when it does. In the long run, they are better off just raising on the turn.

Sometimes a card can hit on the river that can scare you because you were possibly drawn out on. In fact, this possibility is one of the key reasons to wait until the river to raise if all of the other signs align.

Looking at Jennifer's hand again, she probably put Phil on a big king for his preflop raise, call of the reraise, and raise on the flop. She was certain that Phil would bet his top pair/excellent kicker throughout. The board had no draws, and no real scare card could come (except perhaps an unlikely ace) that would keep Phil from betting on the river. However, if a king hit on the river and Jennifer had not raised on the turn, she simply could check and call and see if her read was correct and Phil had outdrawn her. She would save a bet if a card came that was not to her liking, while still making her raise every time a blank hit.

Let's look at another situation: A player raises from middle position and you three-bet with A-K. Everyone else folds. The flop comes A-6-3, he checks, you bet, and he check-raises. Almost certainly, he has an ace here (or is representing one), and you hold the best kicker. You decide to wait for a later street to spring your trap, so you flat-call. The turn is a deuce, almost certainly no help to your opponent. He bets, and you can raise here, but you should wait. He certainly will bet on the river, and you can raise then. However, he almost certainly has A-Q or A-J. Therefore, if a queen or jack hits on the river, you can simply call and see if you win. If anything else hits, you can raise for the same bet that you would have won if you had raised on the turn.

Conclusion: Waiting until the river to raise is an advanced play, because you need to be fairly certain that all of the factors are in your favor before you try it. If you are in doubt, just raise on the turn.

However, if you learn to recognize the criteria and apply them properly, selective raising on the river can be an effective way to save a few bets and win a few extra ones over the course of a year. And you may find it fun to surprise your opponent on the river once in a while. Just don't run into Phil and his flopped full house too often.

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at http://www.barrytanenbaum.com/ or e-mail him at [email protected].