Cappelletti on Hold'em: A-Q

How good is an A-Q starting hand in no-limit hold'em? There are only four hands that clearly dominate it when heads up against it; namely, pocket aces (win 92 percent of the time), pocket kings (72 percent), pocket queens (70 percent), and A-K (72 percent). All other pocket pairs (from J-J to 2-2) have a slight edge when heads up against an A-Q (about 5 percent to 10 percent); such an encounter is often referred to as "a coin toss."

So, if you pick up an A-Q under the gun with some number of other players acting behind you, what are the percentages that no one will have one of those four dominating hands, which probably would call you even if you went all in?

The chart below gives the approximate percentages of an A-Q not encountering these better hands when playing against one through nine players. For example, if you pick up an A-Q under the gun at a 10-player table, about five times out of six (83.2 percent), none of the other nine players will have A-A, K-K, Q-Q or A-K. Slightly more than half the time (52.7 percent), none of the other nine players will have a pocket pair or an A-K. Note that low pocket pairs normally will not call a very big bet, because the bettor might have a higher pocket pair.

But what if you are in middle position - for example, fifth to act - and there are five players yet to act after you and four players have already folded before you. Is that the same as when you are the first to act of six players? Essentially, yes. To check that out, I adjusted my BASIC program to count only deals in which the hands that folded did not have any obvious calling or raising hands. Even in seat No. 9 after eight hands had folded, the percentages for the one remaining hand were still roughly the same as those for one opponent in the above chart.

How often does an A-Q improve with the flop? There will be no ace or queen in the flop about two-thirds of the time. There will be exactly one ace or one queen in the flop about 29 percent of the time, and two such cards about 3.4 percent of the time. A K-J-10 straight will flop only 0.3 percent of the time (three times in a thousand). Two of those three cards will flop an inside-straight draw about 10 percent of the time - but that draw will often have to fold to a sizeable bet made by a player appearing to have top pair.

About 10 years ago, I introduced a formula for quantifying the winning potential of hold'em hands called Handpower. Using that method, in which an average hand has a Handpower of 1.0 (for example, Q-8 is 1.02 and Q-7 is .95), A-Q is 1.47 and A-Q suited is 1.63. For a comparison, the best hand, pocket aces, has a Handpower of 2.55; pocket queens, 2.05; A-K suited, 1.71; A-K, 1.56; and J-10 suited, 1.43.

In 2004, several poker-playing programmers devised another quantification for hold'em hands, called RP, which stands for raw percent above average or raw power. Using RP, pocket aces are 34.8; pocket queens, 24.6; A-K suited, 15.4; A-K, 12.4; and J-10 suited, 8.3. Using RP, A-Q is 10.7.

So, what does all of this mean? All in all, A-Q is a pretty good hand, but not one of the best hands. You like to pick up this hand - but don't bet the farm. You must be very cautious about getting overly involved when in the likely presence of a better hand. With A-Q, you usually should not call a very big all-in raise before the flop. Unless you are calling a very aggressive player, you usually will have the worst of it.

Just as an A-K starting hand in hold'em is sometimes called big slick, A-Q is sometimes called the Statue of Liberty. Why? Is it because the ace looks something like the statue's torch? There is a colorful deceptive play in football called the Statue of Liberty, in which the quarterback raises his arm up as if to throw the ball, but actually hands it to a runner in back of him. There is also a deceptive play in contract bridge called the Statute of Liberty, when defending a hand with an A-Q of a suit over dummy's K-J-10.