Pocket Kings Flop an Ace ... Again

It happens to us all more times than we’d like to count. We build a nice pot with pocket kings and then the flop comes … bam! There’s an ace. The way that you handle it depends a lot on your opponents, the stack sizes, and more. Let’s look at a hand submitted by a reader:

We’re at the final table of a live no-limit hold’em tournament; nine players remain, and six will be paid. I have a stack of around 14 big blinds, which is above average, when I’m dealt K-K in the big blind. There are two limpers ahead of me, and I raise to a total of five big blinds. One of the limpers calls. He’s a calling station, and seems to call any raise once he’s limped. He has gotten this far by mostly hitting his hands. After the call, my remaining stack is around the size of the pot, and his is around three big blinds less than mine. The flop is A-X-X and I’m out of position. What next?

Given that my opponent has previously called preflop raises with holdings such as unsuited medium connectors, I’m unable to gauge how likely it is that he holds an ace. I’ve also seen him bet weak draws, so if I check and he bets, I’m still not convinced that I’m beat. A small bet almost certainly would be called, and also would commit me.

What happened is that I pushed and he called, showing A-2 offsuit. Against another player, I would have given more consideration to retreating after the flop and saving my …

My reader didn’t write the last word, but I think we can fill in the blank. Tournaments add an extra level of poker analysis, and they add an extra level of poker psychology, too.

Analytically, tournaments are different from cash games because you aren’t trying to win chips, you are trying to finish as high as you can in the final standings. How you play various situations can vary widely depending on the prize structure. If six places are paid but first place gets 50 percent, it often pays to gamble and try to win. If the places pay about equally, though, it’s generally better to be cautious and try to guarantee yourself a spot in one of the higher places. You didn’t specify the prize structure, but it would have to be quite out of the ordinary to justify not playing your pocket kings.

Psychologically, tournaments multiply the natural ups and downs of poker many times over. You don’t lose a hand for just a few big blinds; you get knocked out! You don’t win just a few bucks; you win first place! This psychological layer makes people question themselves in even the most mundane situations.

Mathematically, though, these extraordinary ups and downs aren’t as great. If you get knocked out of a tournament, it can feel like you just lost the first-place prize, but in reality you lost only a percentage chance to win that prize (and oftentimes it’s a small one, at that). Much of the tournament sturm und drang is just in your head.

Let’s talk about the hand. Nine players are left, a couple of loose players limped in, and you have pocket kings. Your stack is 14 big blinds, and that’s slightly above average. Six places will be paid. You’re not nearly in enough of a “bubble” situation to consider not playing your kings (assuming that sixth place pays just a small amount of money). This is the sort of hand that turns an above-average stack into a first-place stack.

So, you raise to five big blinds and get called by a loose limper. The flop comes ace high, and you’re first to act. Your opponent has about six big blinds left. I like pushing. The pot is too large (compared to the stacks) to fold. Because he’s a calling station, your opponent is certainly not a favorite to have an ace. If you bet, he might call with a number of bad hands that you have a big edge against. Checking or betting less than all in both have some merits. Checking to an aggressive player might make some sense, but less so against a calling station. Betting less than all in could be good if doing that might tempt him to “go all the way” with hands that have no shot against yours, like two undercards to your pair. But overall, this pot is large, you have a decent hand, and your opponent is a calling station. I don’t see a compelling reason to get fancy. Just push and hope that he calls with a weaker hand.

I believe that most people place too much value on surviving in tournaments. Yes, you can indeed win a tournament with just a chip and a chair, but you won’t do it very often. The actual monetary value of a chip and a chair varies considerably based on the stage of the tournament, the prize structure, and so forth. But in most cases, it’s not much.

Over the years, I’ve seen players make some incredible folds in the name of survival. More than once, I’ve seen a player bet literally every chip but one, and then fold. Each time, the players at the table gasped with incredulity. And each time, the folding player said proudly, “A chip and a chair.” In most cases, I think it’s better to go for the big win and risk elimination than to lock in a big loss. Even a relatively small chance of winning may ultimately be worth more than the lonely chip and a chair.

There’s a lot of gamble in tournaments, especially when the stack sizes get as short as they were in this hand. Once there’s so much money in the pot, there’s often no good way to “get away from your hand.” I think this reader played just fine.

Ed’s brand-new book, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em, is available for purchase at smallstakesnolimitholdem.com. He is a featured coach at stoxpoker.com, and you can also check out his online poker advice column, notedpokerauthority.com.