Hand 2 Hand Combat -- Ryan Welch

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Event $1,000 Full Tilt Poker no-limit hold’em Monday event
First Place $93,000
Finish Second
Players 3
Stacks Ryan Welch – 764,035; Villain – 735,712
Blinds 5,000-10,000
Antes 1,000

Craig Tapscott: What’s the journey been like to this final table?

Ryan Welch: Picking up chips hadn’t been too hard, except for the fact that Villain, on my immediate left, did not like to allow late-position raises. I knew who he was by talking to a few people, and realized that he was primarily a heads-up cash-game and high-limit heads-up sit-and-go player.

CT: How can this read against a cash-game regular help you?

RW: Right off the bat, that means a few things. First off, they are normally extremely aggressive players who will attempt elaborate post-flop plays and have a hard time letting go of a hand if they sense weakness. I can’t automatically assume this, but shortly into the final table, it was apparent. For example, I raised with A-10 from the button, with every intention of calling the big blind’s shove of 16 big blinds. Villain then three-bet me — for about the third time — and the big blind immediately shipped it in. Villain was forced to call with K-6 offsuit.

CT: What can you do with this information now?

RW: I now know that stack sizes of other opponents aren’t a very big concern for him. An MTT [multitable tournament] regular would almost never three-bet in a spot like that without a hand that he was pretty sure was ahead of a big blind’s shove — especially when it’s very apparent that I am never raise-folding in that spot. One more important thing I noticed was his propensity to flat [flat-call] three-bets in position. Once we got to three-handed play, it was apparent that Villain was never folding his button. I had three-bet him a few times, and he folded twice and four-bet once. How deep we are is a very important factor in this hand, because I can’t see it ever being a profitable play when short-stacked (15-25 big blinds) to three-bet A-4 offsuit unless you are definitely going to call off to a four-bet.

Villain raises from the button to 24,225.

RW: Now, I have a couple of options; many times, I may just outright fold this hand, or even decide to flat. But against a very aggressive opponent on the button, an ace three-handed is very likely to be the best hand.

Welch reraises from the big blind to 68,450 with the A 4. Villain calls.

RW: Most times, this raise would take down the pot right there; however, he decided to flat and play this hand in position. Against many opponents, I would immediately shut down on the hand, but not against him. His range for flatting here is extremely wide: basically, all suited connectors, small pairs, marginal suited aces, and probably any two facecards.

Flop: 9 8 4 (pot: 144,900)

RW: The flop is relatively good for my hand, as it has likely missed his holdings, because he most likely four-bets 8-8, 9-9, or any overpair.

CT: Is this a good spot to continuation-bet out of position?

RW: My first instinct was to lead the flop; however, I really felt he would float me and try to outplay me in position. So, I decided to check, with every intention of check-raising (check-calling is also a very good option).

Welch checks. Villain checks.

RW: This is the point in the hand where I felt like he might switch gears. He might think I am going to check-raise him on this flop, and therefore decide to check behind with overcards or possibly a marginal hand with some showdown value. I never think he checks a flush draw here, or a straight draw with J-10 or 7-6, so most of his range is air, small pairs, or overcards.

Turn: 10 (pot: 144,900)

CT: Do you still think you’re ahead?

RW: It’s not a great card, but not bad, either. I still feel there is a very good chance that I have the best hand, and I know that Villain will never check twice if the action is checked to him.

Welch checks. Villain bets 88,255.

CT: What now?

RW: It’s very possible that he may have a hand like K-10 or A-10, or even Q-10, and I have let him catch up. We are still very deep, and I am likely to still have the best hand, so …

Welch calls.

RW: Now, my call on the turn tells Villain that I likely have connected with the flop, with either top pair or better. I doubt that he puts me on any kind of draw here, especially when I three-bet preflop and checked two times to him.

River: K (pot: 321,410)

RW: My options on the river are still very flexible. It is still likely that I have the best hand; however, Villain is so aggressive that I know he will bet here with or without a hand. He would even try to bet a very marginal holding for value, like an 8 or 9, or possibly even bluff with these hands. Most MTT regulars would not be bet-folding this river very often, which is a very important factor in this hand. I have discussed this hand with some other great players, and I’m still up in the air as to whether a check-call is better here, or to take the line that I did and check-shove the river. Now, considering the money on the line and the fact that I’m up against a very loose-aggressive player, I think he will be bet-folding this river with air enough times to warrant a call or shove.

Welch checks. Villain bets 142,555. Welch raises all in for 606,330.

RW: I’m representing a very huge hand here. My reason for this is to push out hands that are possibly beating me, but in Villain’s eyes, I’m very capable of playing a set with this exact line. I would likely be check-raising the flop with a set; also, a hand like K-10 or Q-J is very possibly in my range.

CT: You sound unsure that you made the right decision.

RW: My river line still might not be optimal, and a check-call is still probably the best line to have taken a large percentage of the time. Also, the timing of my river bet was part of my thought process. I did not snap-shove the river bet. I went into the tank, and then shoved.

Villain folds. Ryan Welch wins the pot of 463,965.

RW: He insta-folded. This makes me think he was on total air throughout. The key point of this hand is to know your opponents and their tendencies during post-flop play. My play on the river is highly player-dependent. I would never use it against any MTT regular without an extremely strong holding. It would have been completely terrible against a vast majority of MTT regulars, but I was able to adjust my play and win a very substantial pot deep in a large MTT.

Ryan Welch attended Southern Illinois University and landed a corporate sales executive position upon graduation. After winning the Full Tilt Sunday Brawl for $68,370, he left his day job to pursue poker professionally. His largest online cash came in October 2008, when he won the PokerStars Sunday Warm-Up and $99,000. Also, in January of this year, he won event No. 5 of the UltimateBet Online Championship, for $66,000. Since becoming a professional online player, Welch has cashed for more than $1 million in online MTTs.