Skiing Downhill on Ice

Both the poker world and I have been having an unusual year, at least partly due to the enormous gyrations in the U.S. and world economies. I often have stated that if there was an award for consistency in poker, I would win it. I plan my life and my game around a risk-averse strategy. I miss some of the highs, but I also miss nearly all of the lows. This strategy has served me well.

This year, my graph consists of massive mountain peaks and grand canyons. In December of last year, I started the best five-month rush of my poker career. When the good run ended, it was like I fell off the Tower of Terror, as I experienced my biggest downward swing ever, losing more than 200 big bets straight for the first time in my life.

Why is this year so different from my previous 39 years of play? Why the sudden inconsistency? Being analytically oriented, I searched for reasons.

During the rush, my luck, particularly in big-pot situations, was magnificent, as I caught good tickets when I was in trouble. The opposite happened when I started the slide. In good shape in a lot of big pots, I watched opponents with weak holdings hit their few outs to win. Over a lifetime, things even out. You win as many as you’re supposed to win and lose as many as you’re supposed to lose, and big-pot/small-pot situations should even out over a statistically significant number of trials — which doesn’t help a damn bit when you’re skiing downhill on ice. But, that’s poker.

To understand my situation, I needed to analyze what had changed in my poker environment. A tight economy and a shrinking pool of players certainly didn’t help. And the players who have drifted away from the game in tough times tend to be the soft spots. The grinders and the hard-core players stick it out. Edge against the field for those of us who remain inevitably shrinks.

My positive rush coincided with Bellagio changing the $30-$60 limit hold’em games to nine-handed (from 10-handed), and strengthening the “must-move” policy, creating many more shorthanded situations. Many of my opponents were unfamiliar with correct shorthanded strategy. Much of my winning run came when playing against these inexperienced opponents in shorthanded situations. This speaks to the concept of staying within your element, playing in games in which you are strong, and finding games in which your opponents are out of their element. My friend Grant creates a big edge for himself, exploiting the knowledge/experience gap by having learned to play all of the “mixed” games well. This gives him a huge edge over players with leaks in some of the games. That type of edge served me well in the shorthanded games.

To my dismay, many players quit playing shorthanded with me. During the middle period of the World Series of Poker — when the grinders were sticking it out — I found myself in tough games, running salty. When the spread of ability between you and your opponents is great, you can get away with a great deal of bad luck — but not when the edge is fine. In tougher games, your swings will be greater and your earn will be less — which is why game selection is so important.

During my losing cycle, did I lose faith in myself and my decisions? Did I steam? Did I give up on my determination to win? Did I play badly, looking to “luck my way out” of another painful losing session? I pride myself in my ability to avoid steaming, so that was not an issue in my losses. Not steaming is one of those fundamentals of poker that you must learn to observe.

Often when you are running bad, it is not just a function of getting bad cards or getting “sucked out” on, but a function of running into situations in which your opponent always seems to be at the “top of his range.” You pick up kings and play them hard against aces, but your opponent just as easily could have played A-K, Q-Q, or J-J identically. You call, getting the right price from the pot to pick off a bluff, but you never seem to be right. Questioning your reads, you pay off more because you’re in greater doubt, or fold a winner because you haven’t been right the last 11 times you called to pick off a bluff. I was guilty of this during my downhill slide. I lost some of my confidence, and went against my own belief to never lose faith in myself. Events confused my judgment, and it was compounding in my mind.

It was time to talk to myself, and I wasn’t very polite! I told myself to trust my judgment, believe in myself, not worry about results, and just keep pulling the trigger and things would sort themselves out. Finally, I’ve booked a couple of winners in a row, and have started to turn things around.

Poker is a combination of both luck and skill. In the short run, there is a lot of luck, but over the long haul, very little — and virtually none in limit ring games, where situations are generally constant. As a player, you need to accept the fact that you will lose, and sometimes will have long losing streaks. They are just part of poker.

Good players minimize their losses by not putting themselves in negative-edge situations, by not steaming, by leaving bad games when stuck, and by maintaining faith in themselves. Always keep in mind that the money you don’t lose today adds to your winnings at the end of the year.

After all of the ups and downs I’ve had so far, my hourly rate is slightly higher than last year. My results are essentially unchanged, but my swings in getting there have been vastly different.

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com. Find John and Roy on Facebook.