The Defensive Bet

In poker, most often you bet because you have a good hand — or perhaps because you want someone to think that you have a good hand. But in pot-limit and no-limit poker, there are some situations in which you bet mainly as a defensive or pre-emptive action. In fact, sometimes you actually bet out of fear — because you are afraid that something bad might happen if you don’t bet.

I was playing pot-limit Omaha high, with $5-$10 blinds, and picked up the A K J 10. This is a fine playable hand, but I would like it much more if the ace was suited instead of the king. Computer simulations tell us that an Omaha hand containing the K X with three hearts in the five boardcards will run into the A X in one of the other nine hands about 36 percent of the time (although that hand might have been folded before the flop). So, you should be very aware that a king-high flush might be the second-best flush as often as one-third of the time.

The under-the-gun player folded to me in second position, and I made it $25 to go, which is a popular preflop raise in that particular game. In four-way action, which included both blinds, the flop came 9 9 8. That was certainly not a good flop for me, but I did have an open-end straight draw and the king-high flush draw.

Both blinds checked to me, so I bet $50 into the $100 pot. The loose player on my left, who had been playing very aggressively, slowly called, and both blinds folded. The 2 turned.

We all have been in this hold’em-like situation many times. We raise before the flop with two high cards. We miss the flop, but bet anyway. We get one caller, and then we miss the turn. So, what now? Bet again, or essentially give up? Since I had detected weakness, I tried a $75 bet, hoping he would fold. But, he made another somewhat tedious call.

The river card was the 9. So, we both missed our various draws. I was convinced that he did not have the fourth 9, and at least the third 9 on the board would not allow him to beat me with an 8 or deuce in his hand. So, if he didn’t have the 9 or a pocket pair, my A-K would win the pot.

But what if I checked? He had a lot of chips and had been doing a lot of big betting. Could I really call a big bet with my A-K high? Probably not. It was not my cup of tea.

But what was his mindset about me (assuming that he studied other players)? I had been playing quite tight. He might well believe that I had raised before the flop and kept betting with a hand that included pocket aces or a high pair. So, I bet $100.

He mulled it over, then looked up at me and said, “I think I have you beat.”

I smiled at him and said, “You never know.”

He thought a bit longer, then smiled and said, “I’ll show you mine if you’ll show me yours.” Then, before I could respond, he exposed his hand faceup on the table, saying, “I fold.” He showed A-Q-J-10.

I very seldom show my cards when not called, but somehow I felt that it would be good for business to show this one — and might even make a friend. As he studied my hand, he said, “You made a good $100 bet there. If you had checked, I was gonna bet the pot.”

Note also that if he happened to have me beat and made a big raise over my $100 bet, I would have an easy fold. But if I checked and he bet the pot, whatever I did might be wrong and costly.

Over the years, I have seen numerous occasions in which a modest bet has “kept the initiative” (as they say in chess), and helped defend my position in a delicate pot. Sometimes, offense is the best defense.

Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.