Card Player Pro

Game $50-$100, $4,000-cap pot-limit Omaha
Opponent Full Tilt professional Richard Ashby
Stacks $7,541 (Watson); $30,123.56 (Ashby)
My Cards J A 10 8
My Position Button

Two pair can be a difficult hand to play in pot-limit Omaha, and even more difficult when you’re up against world-class talent. But, with some deductive reasoning, you can often figure out if your hand is best, and make a good call or fold. In this column, I’m going to review a difficult two-pair hand that I played recently, and we’ll see how hand reading comes into play.

I was playing $50-$100, $4,000-cap pot-limit Omaha (CAP PLO) online. In CAP games, CAP represents the maximum amount of money that a player can commit to the pot in a single hand. This means that even though you may have $10,000 in front of you, you can commit a maximum of only $4,000.

A weak player limped in from under the gun, and Full Tilt professional and online poker expert Richard “CHUFTY” Ashby raised the pot to $450. I elected to call the raise from the button with the J A 10 8. The weak player also called the raise, and the three of us took a flop.

Having a hand with good drawing potential (suited ace, suited Broadway), and good high-card strength (A-J-10), makes this is a pretty strong hand in CAP PLO. Also, I’m not convinced that Ashby has a very strong hand; my original assessment is that he’s raising primarily to isolate himself against the weak player who open-limped from early position.

The flop came A 8 4, giving me top two pair on a flush-draw board.

The weak player checked, Ashby checked, and I bet $1,200 into a pot of $1,497.

Top two pair here is certainly a hand with which I’m willing to stack off in a CAP game. There are lots of draws on the board, a few worse hands that might feel pot-committed (A-4, A-K-X-X), and a weak player who already has shown himself willing to get money in pretty light.

The weak player folded, and Ashby called. The pot is now $3,897.

The turn brought the J, completing the flush. Without hesitation, Ashby fired out the remaining bet left in the CAP: $2,350 (the equivalent of going all in).

This is not a fun spot for me. I’ve improved to a better two pair, but all I beat at this point is a bluff. Should I call?

My analysis: Versus a player as talented as Richard Ashby, you have to assume that he’s capable of bluffing in spots like this some percentage of the time. Against a weaker player, I’d probably just give him credit for having a flush and fold. But against Ashby, it’s closer.

The problem with his play is that it’s not very believable that he has a flush here. I think that if he had any sort of a decent draw (flush draw plus gutshot, nut-flush draw, flush draw plus a pair), he would have bet the flop, as he was the preflop raiser. It’s pretty hard to imagine him check-calling a flush draw here, especially since it’s certainly plausible that I could have the nut-flush draw, and he could be drawing dead. While I’m sure that he could play some odd combos of pair-plus-flush hands in this manner, I don’t think he has a flush here.

Second, I think it makes sense for him to have some sort of one-pair A-X-X-X hand here that he’s now turning into a bluff. Remember the flop: Two players checked to me, and I bet in position. I could be doing that with a wide range of hands. So, he doesn’t necessarily have to think that one pair of aces is beat yet. I think he can have a hand like A-K-X-X that he didn’t want to bet on the flop and call a raise, but didn’t want to check-fold, either.

Putting these two pieces together, I think it’s likely that he’s bluffing here enough that I can make the call.

So, I called the $2,350 shove, and he flipped over the A K 9 7, for just one pair, and the river brought the 8 (giving me a full house).

It’s very important when playing against smart opponents to really take the time to figure out if the hand they’re representing makes sense. Against a good player, if something seems out of line, it usually is.