Thin Value

The longer I’ve played poker, the more I’ve become convinced that a single concept is truly at the core of nearly all successful strategies. It’s a concept that is as important in no-limit hold’em as it is in limit stud eight-or-better. This central concept is extracting thin value.

It’s a simple idea. On the final betting round, you have an OK hand. It’s the sort of ho-hum hand that you get a dozen or more times in a session. But given the way this particular pot has played out, you think it’s better than whatever your opponent has. You bet the hand, your opponent calls, and you win.

Even though the idea is simple, the gap between players who consistently find thin value and those who don’t is massive. Finding thin value doesn’t mean just making a few extra bucks with your so-so hands. It also means being able to bluff more frequently and more profitably. It also means making your bets on earlier streets carry more leverage. Players who consistently find thin value will find that nearly every action they take in a hand, beginning with their decision to enter the pot, is more profitable.

How can this one little aspect of the game be so important? Let’s look at an example in no-limit hold’em.

It’s a $2-$5 game with $500 stacks. You open for $20 from three off the button with the A 10. The button calls, and so does the big blind.

The flop comes 10 8 6. The big blind checks, you bet $50 into the $62 pot, the button folds, and the big blind calls.

The turn is the 2. The big blind checks, you bet $120 into the $162 pot, and he calls.

The river is the K. The big blind checks, and you bet $180 into the $402 pot.

If you’re like most no-limit players, you are likely saying to yourself, “I would never bet that river. What does he call me with?” And it is indeed possible that, given the way you play today and what your regular opponents know about you, they won’t call you with anything you beat. However, I would argue that if you make a habit of betting more rivers — a lot more rivers — you will find that this is a great river to bet for value against many opponents.

When the flop comes with three cards to a straight, players frequently make pair-and-draw hands. On this flop, such hands include 10-9, 10-7, 9-8, 9-7, 9-6, 7-6, 9-9, 7-7, and other pair and flush-draw combinations. Pair-and-draw hands are likely candidates to call (and just call, not raise) flop and turn bets. The turn and river cards brick all of these possible draws. So, if your opponent holds one of these hands, on the river he holds a single-pair bluff-catcher. Your hand beats nearly all of the single-pair possibilities. The only likely hands that now beat you are a somewhat weakly played Q-Q or J-J, a sandbagged K-10, or a hand like the K 9, which both contains a king and had sufficient value to call the turn.

Let’s say that I were the big blind and held 8-7 and faced a river bet of $180 into the $402 pot. Against most no-limit players, I’d fold without too much thought. But that’s because most no-limit players do not bet the river nearly often enough, either for value or as a bluff. If I were to call this bet against most players, I’d expect to see strong hands such as K-10, 10-10, 8-8, 6-6, 9-7, and so forth. Most players would check the river back even with a hand as strong as the K 9. (If you see that I advocate betting A-10, you can hopefully guess how I’d suggest playing with K-9.)

Most players also don’t bluff the river often enough. When they bust their draws, they check the river, shrug, and say, “I missed.” So, I can safely fold my one-pair hands like 8-7 to a bet, knowing that the bet will usually indicate a legitimately strong hand.

Now let’s say I were up against a player who bets strong hands, bets missed draws as bluffs, but checks back “thin value” hands like K-9 and A-10. Against this player, I would nearly automatically call the $180 river bet into the $402 pot with 8-7. Why? Because by calling, I’m risking $180 to win $582, giving me about 3.2-to-1 odds. With these odds, my call will be profitable if I win just 25 percent of the time. Because of the way my opponent plays, I can expect to win far more frequently than that. He bets his strong hands — like top two pair, a set, or a straight — but strong hands like these don’t grow on trees. Busted drawing hands like Q-J and the A 4, however, are always plentiful. So, if I can expect my betting opponent to have either a big hand or nothing, and I need him to have nothing only 25 percent of the time to make calling profitable, I’m usually going to have an easy call.

Now let’s say I were up against a player who bets strong hands, sometimes bets missed draws as bluffs, and also bets hands like K-9 and A-10 for thin value. Holding 8-7, I’m officially in a pickle. Even though I know that my opponent could be bluffing, I also know that I’m usually going to lose if I call. Good opponents will hone their betting frequencies with these various hand types to make my decision as close as possible. I can either fold and lose pots to bluffs or pay off all of the K-9 and A-10 hands. It’s a no-win situation for me.

This is why I consider thin value the core to a strong poker strategy. When you correctly go for thin value, three good things happen. You make more money with your medium-strength hands by winning an extra bet occasionally. You get to bluff credibly at more pots, because your opponent won’t know if his bluff-catcher pair is slightly better than your hand, or slightly worse. And you make more money with your big hands, because your opponents will now sometimes be tempted to call those big river bets with hands that are not very strong.

This is the area in which I think most players I encounter can use the most work. They are habitual river checkers, and that fact stunts their ability to get paid with good hands and bluff with bad ones. So, if your reaction to my initial example was to check, the next time that you play, try to find more rivers to bet. If you do it well, you will become a much more fearsome player.

Ed’s brand-new book, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em, is available for purchase at smallstakesnolimitholdem.com. He is a featured coach at stoxpoker.com, and you can also check out his online poker advice column, notedpokerauthority.com.