Triple-Draw Lowball: Part VIII

Part VII of this series discussed fourth-round strategy — playing a 7 and playing an 8. This column discusses:
• Playing a 9
• Playing a worse non-pair hand
• Playing a pair

Playing a 9
Depending, of course, on what you know of your opponents, you should usually bet a 9 into one opponent and check to more than one who have all drawn one card. If your opponents have drawn multiple cards or if one has drawn one and one or more others have drawn multiple cards, bet. Against two opponents drawing one card to good hands, 9-7-4-3-2 wins approximately 49 percent of the time. While you have positive expectation, you realize that expectation only if no one raises. For this reason, with one-card draws, pat hands, or both behind you, check and then usually call. (Don’t call if there is a bet and a raise behind you.) As with an 8, if a player is loose-aggressive or tricky, check and call if he bets.

In second position, with two behind you who have drawn one card, check and call. With two behind you and at least one of whom has drawn two cards, bet. If the first player stood pat, unless he is a weak-loose calling station, check and hope for the best. In last position against draws, usually bet. Probably don’t bet if either player is tricky, because you’ll face a raise often enough to make your bet unprofitable.

Playing a Worse Non-Pair Hand
When checked to by one player, you should bet a 10 or jack part of the time. A jack wins half or more of the time, and a 10 wins 65 percent or more. Considering what is already in the pot, most opponents, after passing, will call with more hands worse than yours — including pairs — than better. Don’t always bet your 10 or jack, particularly against loose-aggressive or tricky players. Show the hands down maybe one-third of the time. If you always bet those hands, players will learn to check and call with better hands. (Predictability is almost always a bad thing in poker.) When checked to by more than one player, usually just show down your 10 or jack. Except against extremely tight players, you should call one bet with a 10 or jack. And even those players bluff once in a while.

How about betting a queen, king, or ace? Against one opponent who has drawn one card to a good hand, a good queen (Q-7, say) is about a 47 percent favorite. If the player is one who calls with any small pair or better, you definitely should bet. If the player bets any 10 or better when first, and rarely or never check-raises with good hands, you are much more of a favorite. Don’t bet the hand from first position, but do bet oftentimes from second position. A king is not enough of a favorite to warrant a bet. An ace is even worse. You might bet against one two-card draw that passed, but you’ll rarely find yourself in that situation on the last round in a typical triple-draw game. It happens more often in a shorthanded game, or in a pot involving only the two blinds, particularly if the small blind is a player who refuses to be run off and the big blind is aggressive.

Playing a Pair
Don’t bet a small pair from any position. You’ll see players who bet whenever they pair, and this is usually a mistake. Pot odds nearly always warrant calling, and opponents have calling hands or call rough often enough to make betting with any pair a losing proposition. If the pot is large enough, you should often call with a small pair, however. For example, if the pot contains 13 big bets, you have to win only a bit more than one time in 13 to have positive expectation. A player who draws to 7-6-4-2 and bets if he pairs either the 7 or the 6 is bluffing about one time in six (depending on your cards). If he bets any pair, he is bluffing perhaps one time in three. Players who don’t call with small pairs in such a situation are making a mistake. (You may not know if a player folds a pair, but sometimes you’ll see typed into the chatbox, “I couldn’t call; I paired.”)

The one exception to never betting a small pair is against a maniac who has just drawn two or three cards and calls with big pairs and even sometimes with two pair or worse. (Yes, you’ll find players like that. Sadly, they don’t last long.)

Should you ever raise with a pair? The usual homily from poker writers is, “It depends.” In this case, it really does depend. If the pot is big enough, it might be worth a shot. If the player often lays down after betting, the attempt is definitely warranted. With 20 big bets, you would put up two bets and be getting odds of 10-1. If you know the player bets pairs and also sometimes lays down some non-pair hands that he would bet, you can make the play. You wouldn’t do so very often, and if caught, you probably wouldn’t do it again in that session.

Thanks to everyone who sent e-mail with questions and comments on this series.

Michael Wiesenberg has been a columnist for Card Player since 1988. He has written or edited many books about poker, and has also written extensively about computers. His crossword puzzles are syndicated in newspapers and appear online and in national publications. Send plaudits, plaints, and petitions to [email protected].