Mind Over Poker

I received the following e-mail from a reader second-guessing a move that he made:

“I played a tourney the other day with a $125 buy-in, 8,000 in chips, 15-minute rounds, and 57 players. It was the fourth round, when the blinds were 100-200 with a 25 ante. I was in the big blind, and five players limped in for 200. I looked down and had pocket deuces. My stack was about 4,000, as I had lost a big pot with pocket aces to a set of sixes in round two. So, with my deuces, I made a move and raised to 1,200. Everyone folded except one player. I went all in blind prior to the flop to make the other player believe that I had a big pocket pair. The flop was 10-7-2 rainbow. My opponent folded. Maybe without the blind move-in prior to the flop, I could have won more chips with my set. Would you have done anything differently? I finished 14th.”

My response was that what I would have done is really irrelevant. I like to act with as much information as possible. Maybe I would have been prepared to push on a flop like that, but I would have wanted to see the flop before I acted. Plus, the answer really depends on so many other factors, including the size of my opponent’s chip stack, his likely holding, how he plays, and so on. (I probably would have just checked my option and seen a flop with my deuces at that stage of the game.)

However, the real issue to me is that if the flop had come 10-7-3, I never would have received this e-mail. Our hero would have been extremely proud of his move, as he scooped the pot with a measly pair of deuces. In other words, his move worked. He tried to steal preflop with a big raise, and unfortunately got one caller. Not to be deterred, he made up his mind that he was going to win the pot anyway. So, he went all in blind to show his opponent that he meant business and that he had a big hand. His opponent believed him. That was his move based on the circumstances presented to him.

Now, if he knew that he was going to flop a set of deuces on such a ragged flop, would he have played it that way? Of course not. But that’s the entire point. Don’t second-guess yourself based on the outcome. Always look at the decision that you made at the time that you made it. If it was the right decision, be happy with it. Our hero made his move based not on the odds of him hitting the flop, but on the odds of his opponent hitting it. With so much in the pot and enough chips to have fold equity, he made his move. There’s no need to second-guess there — whether he hits a set, his opponent makes a hand, or his opponent folds. Poker is a game of imperfect information. When you take a calculated risk, judge if it was the right move at the time for you, and if it was, don’t second-guess yourself based on the outcome.

David Apostolico is the author of several poker-strategy books, including Tournament Poker and The Art of War, and Compete, Play, Win: Finding Your Best Competitive Self. You can contact him at [email protected].