Final Table Takedown -- Ryan ‘gutshtallin’ Welch

Ryan Welch is a former corporate sales executive who left his job in 2008 to become a full-time high-stakes poker player. His largest online cash came in May 2010, when he finished second in a PokerStars Spring Championship of Online Poker event for $238,000, following a heads-up chop. Along with this score, he has won six online Sunday majors, and is approaching $2.5 million in career online-tournament earnings.

Event: World Series of Poker event No. 51, $3,000 triple-chance no-limit hold’em
Players in the Event: 965
Buy-in: $3,000
First Prize: $559,371
Finish: First

Hand No. 1
Stacks: Ryan Welch – 2,100,000 Jon Eaton – 2,248,000 Guillaume Darcourt – 1,460,000
Blinds: 15,000-30,000
Antes: 4,000
Players Remaining: 6

HAND NO. 1
Key Concepts: Patience; sticking to a strong read on an opponent

Jon Eaton raises to 72,000 from under the gun.

Ryan Welch: This was Jon’s standard raise size, and he was currently the chip leader and opening a fair percentage of the time. So, I decided to …

Welch calls from the cutoff the K Q. Darcourt calls from the big blind.

Craig Tapscott: What’s your read on Darcourt flat-calling here?

RW: This was very standard for him, because he was flatting [flat-calling] from out of position often and seeing a lot of flops.

CT: Can you share your basic strategy from the blinds in similar situations?

RW: At this stage in a tournament, I don’t really like reraising with hands that have good post-flop equity and are considered strong in my flatting value range. I would rather reraise with a hand like Q-9 suited or J-8 suited than K-Q or small or medium pairs. From the blinds, after a raise and a call, I think you can definitely widen your flatting range, given the chips already in the pot.

Flop: Q 7 3 (pot: 255,000)
Darcourt checks. Eaton bets 116,000.

CT: Did you have a strong read on Eaton’s play?

RW: My read of Jon is that he’s a very solid, tight-aggressive player. He had pretty much avoided any big confrontations, or had just been fortunate enough not to have to get involved. I feel like he will be betting most flops here, because he knows how loose Darcourt is from the blinds.

Welch calls. Darcourt calls.

CT: What hand range did you assign Darcourt?

RW: The overcall by Darcourt wasn’t completely uncommon, because he would be calling with gutshots, flush draws, worse queens, and pretty much any 7.

Turn: 9 (pot: 603,000)
Darcourt checks. Eaton bets 295,000.

RW: He’s never double-barreling in this spot as a bluff, with me calling as well as Darcourt. So, I put him on a value range that is roughly A-Q, 3-3, 7-7, 9-9, A-A, Q-Q, or K-K. I think that if he has a worse queen or underpair, he either checks the flop for pot control or surely checks the turn for the same reason. So, for that reason …

Welch folds. Darcourt calls.

CT: Wow. I think most players would find it hard to fold with top pair and good kicker.

RW: To be honest, in this kind of hand with my reads, I felt that a fold was pretty standard here. I just don’t beat anything in his range now. I 100 percent think “folding” is a huge leak in many tournament players’ games. They overvalue hands, and are unable to let them go post-flop. Obviously, it’s much harder when the stacks are more shallow, but here, we both are 70 big blinds deep, or more. Against a different type of opponent, I don’t fold here.

River: 8 (pot: 1,193,000)
Darcourt checks.

RW: Darcourt checked quickly, which told me from my read on him that he had some showdown value, and likely had a worse queen than I did — something like Q-10 or Q-J, or even worse queens.

Eaton checks and flips over the 3 3. Darcourt mucks. Eaton wins the pot of 1,193,000.

CT: Would you have played Eaton’s hand any differently?

RW: From my read on Darcourt, he wasn’t the type of player to check-raise that river with a flush. So, I think that I would’ve put in a value-bet on the river of around 400,000. I don’t think Darcourt can fold any two-pair hand or even a queen. Nonetheless, sticking to my read and being able to fold a pretty strong hand when six-handed kept me out of trouble and kept my stack healthy.

Hand No. 2
Key Concepts: Knowing your opponent’s hand range and betting style

Darcourt raises to 125,000 from the button. Welch calls from the big blind with the A 10.

CT: Was this a possible spot to three-bet a button raise?

RW: I could definitely make an argument for three-betting here, because of the style of Darcourt. But I decided to reduce my variance and just see a flop. I felt that flatting had more value because he would stack off with worse aces, or definitely put one or two bets in at some point. Basically, it would enable me to catch bluffs with a lot of flops.

Flop: 6 4 2 (pot: 290,000)
Darcourt bets 150,000. Welch calls.

CT: What’s the plan when you float a flop like this out of position?

RW: This is a pretty dry flop, and my ace high will be good a very high percentage of the time. I also have the A, so there are lots of heart turns on which I can lead out and semibluff my hand. I fully intended on making a play if I had to in this hand. I believe that it’s important to think about your approach before you flat-call a hand out of position. Flatting with A-10 here and check-folding every time that I don’t hit top pair or middle pair is not going to be a very profitable line.

Turn: K (pot: 590,000)
Welch checks. Darcourt checks.

CT: Does this check by Darcourt give you some idea of where he is in the hand?

RW: Well, this immediately gives me more information to further define his hand. He definitely was the type of player to go for three streets of value with any top pair or better. I also think he will bet the turn again with flush draws. So, I put his range on one-pair or middle-pair type of hands, something with marginal showdown value, or complete trash.

River: J (pot: 590,000)

CT: Is this a good card for you?

RW: Yes. It’s a great card for my perceived hand range. I thought about leading out, but felt that he would call with some of his weaker value range, and that check-raising was a much stronger line. Also, I thought that he might just give up his trash hands and check behind.

Welch checks. Darcourt bets 150,000.

RW: This is a very small bet that looked very weak. I decided that I could now definitely raise to represent a flush, and get him to fold almost his entire range. At the time, it looked like he’d hit a jack and was going for thin value.

Welch raises to 475,000. Darcourt tanks, and eventually folds. Welch wins the pot of 740,000.

RW: I think my check-raise on the river is the right play, because I feel like he gives up all of his thin value range, and possibly even a king. But if he had a king, I felt like he would’ve bet it on the turn. I could have check-called this bet, but I knew that he was capable of thin value-betting, and I felt that a raise could get him off all of those hands.