Bluff Equity

Sometimes bluffing situations arise that you recognize and execute. Many of them are “textbook” situations. For example, you are first to act and everyone checks the flop. On the turn, the board pairs — or an undercard comes — and you bet.

Sometimes, however, your only chance to bluff is to show your opponents a betting pattern that enables you to execute a bluff late in a session because you have built up credibility by showing down real hands in similar circumstances earlier. In other words, you have “trained” your opponents to respond to a specific betting sequence by realizing that you “always” have the goods when you make that bet. If you have been successful, your trained opponent will obediently fold.

I call this kind of training of opponents creating “bluff equity.” I have discussed specific instances of recommended betting by you in previous columns, but here, I want to wrap it around a concept so that you can recognize it.

The essence of building up bluff equity is simple: When you make a hand, you bet. This means that on the flop, the turn, or the river, if you happen to make a hand that you think is the best, bet. This is especially true when you’re out of position, when the temptation to check-raise causes many players to check when they make a hand. I am not saying there is no place for check-raising, but I believe that it is overused, and that its use precludes the development of bluff equity.

On the flop: OK, it’s time for some examples. Let’s look at the flop first. Two players limp in, the small blind calls, and you, in the big blind, check with 6-5 offsuit. The flop is 9-6-6 with two spades. Many players check here, hoping that someone will bet, or if everyone checks, maybe someone will make a pair on the turn.

There certainly are times when checking is correct, such as when the last-position player will automatically bet, hoping that everyone folds. Much of the time, though, betting is correct. If all goes well and someone suspiciously calls you down, showing your flopped trips starts to build bluff equity. Other players may take note of the fact that you flopped trips and then bet right out. Later in the session, if you have 6-4 offsuit and the flop comes 7-3-3, betting your gutshot may look like you have flopped trips again. Your opponents will be far more inclined to fold than if you had check-raised the last time that you made trips.

On the turn: You are in the big blind, this time with 7-6 suited. An early-position player raises, two others call, the small blind folds, and you elect to call. The flop is J-5-4, giving you an open-end straight draw. You check, the raiser bets, the other two fold, and you call. The turn is an 8, completing your straight. Again, you may be thinking, “Great. Another chance to check-raise.” However, the raiser may not even be planning to bet. He may have a hand like 9-9, with which he will check the turn and call the river. If you bet, however, he almost certainly will call on both remaining streets.

He may have A-Q and decide to take the free card. Even if he bets his A-Q, he usually will fold to your check-raise, so you will not gain many bets. If you bet, will he call? Maybe not, but he may be tempted by the number of bets already in the pot and not realize that he is drawing dead.

Again, if you do get called to the river, showing down your hand, indicating your willingness to bet when you make a hand, builds up bluff equity.

On the river: After one fold, you open-raise with the A K. One middle-position player and the button call. Three of you see the flop, J 9 6. You are not crazy about this flop, but you are first to act and might as well bet. The second player calls, and the button raises. You call and hope, as does the player behind you. The turn brings a second spade, the deuce, and you check and call the button’s bet, getting you heads up to the river, which is the 7, completing your backdoor flush. Now what?

Well, you already know what I am going to say. Although your hand is well-hidden, you have no guarantee that the button will bet. He may have 10-10 and be happy to see a showdown. Many players would even check a hand like J-10 here, fearing that you somehow slow-played an overpair. They might even think (perhaps correctly) that you could not call unless you could beat their hand.

If you bet, you almost certainly will get paid off and build up some more of that precious bluff equity. Also note that by betting, you are offering your opponent a chance to raise. Let’s say that he actually has 9-9. If you check-raise, he will fear your flush and just call. If you bet into him, he may put you on a range of hands, almost all of which he can beat. He may well raise and call your reraise. Another old poker saying applies here: “Betting gets you one bet or three; checking gets you zero bets or two.”

Cashing in on your bluff equity: In many sessions, all of your patient bluff-equity building will be in vain. Your opponents may decide to respect your bets, especially when they appear to come out of the blue; you may never build up enough bluff equity to matter, or you may never get the right situation to use it.

When you do get the right situation, however, you win a pot that you would not get in any other way. This potentially large gain is well worth forgoing an extra bet or two that you may gain during the session by check-raising. If you bet out when a possible straight comes on the river, and your opponents have been trained to fully expect you to do that only when you have it, they may finally decide to save a big bet at just the moment that you need them to do so.

Obviously, this works only against certain opponents who are willing to back their “reads” with decisive action, and only when you have cultivated your image by building up your bluff equity over time. When it works, your efforts are rewarded by significant monetary gain.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].