Chances Are: Part I

I’ve written before about confusion in print between the terms odds and chances. The confusion continues. Recently, when the Mega Millions jackpot stood at $380 million, an article speculating about the likelihood of hitting the big prize stated that the “odds of winning are 1 in 175,711,536.” This error made me realize that not enough newspaper and magazine writers read my earlier article, so here’s an update.

The chances are that many people are confused about the difference between odds and chances. It’s not their fault, because many supposed authorities also are confused, including those who should know better — that is, some of those who write about gambling in various scholarly tomes and publications.

Some of the biggest gambling games are the sweepstakes conducted by supermarket chains, airlines, makers of snack foods, discount magazine distributors, and the like. (“If you return the winning number by May 1, 2011, you are our next winner of TEN MILLION DOLLARS.”)

Sweepstakes are not officially lotteries, because they offer participants a free shot at sometimes as much as millions of dollars. (Well, you do have to buy a first-class postage stamp.) The wealth of fine print accompanying such promotions always states somewhere, “No purchase required.” Since they obviously want you to buy their products, the promoters often make it extremely difficult to enter without buying anything. Often buried in the rules are instructions to write a slogan that is supposed to help you remember the sponsor’s product on a piece of paper that must be exactly a certain size and mailed to a different address from that on the pre-addressed envelope that you can use if you buy something, and if you don’t follow the instructions exactly — which are written in a point size that even those with 20-20 vision need a magnifier to read — you’re disqualified. Not out of the goodness of their hearts do the promoters offer this alternative form of entry. According to federal regulations, they must, otherwise a sweepstakes becomes a lottery, which can generally be conducted only by governments. Usually, somewhere within the welter of rules, disclaimers, and eligibility requirements is also an odds chart, or a simple declaration of the odds. The rules, obviously, are written by lawyers, and it is here that the so-called experts show their ignorance.

“Odds vary depending upon the number of Game Tickets you obtain. The more Tickets you collect, the better your chances of winning.” Thus reads the start of the odds chart on a supermarket chain’s $4 million bingo game of a few years back. So far, so good. But then comes the chart. To win $2,000 by completing four corners on one of the game boards, according to the chart, “Odds for one game ticket” are “1 in 200,273.” In an online promotion with a top prize of $500,000, “ONE (1) GRAND PRIZE will be awarded in the amount of Five Hundred Thousand Dollars ($500,000) for residence in eligible areas other than New York and Florida. Odds of winning a prize are 1 in 107,666,559.”

A recent Pepsi contest specified, “Twenty-thousand (20,000) Instant Win Prizes. Each Prize will consist of a branded T-Shirt. Actual Retail Value (ARV): $10.00. Odds of winning an Instant Win Prize: 1:20. Total value of all prizes, $200,000.”

Wrong. Those are the chances.

Another promotion explains that it has distributed 20 million game cards, and the “Odds of winning are determined by the distribution” of various cards. You have to collect one each of four different cards. Distributed were approximately 6,667,000 each of three of the cards, and one of the fourth. The odds are decidedly against your buying the box of crackers containing that necessary rare card. It is not correct to refer to the odds of winning. The odds are nearly always against winning.

An article about lotteries stated this: “In Lotto, the odds of winning the first prize jackpot vary from state to state.” When the word odds is followed by the word of, it means the situation is favorable to the player. That is, when the edge is on your side, you can state that the odds are in favor of your winning. When you buy a lottery ticket, however, the odds are against you. The article later stated, “The odds of winning third prize are one in 335 for a dollar bet.” The figures may be right, but not the terminology. That, again, should be chances.

I’m sorry to have to report that even some noted poker writers have been guilty of confusing and misusing the terms odds and chances. I won’t quote any of them here, however, because we do not foul our own nest.

Well, what is the difference between chances and odds?

Next time, we’ll see. ♠

Michael Wiesenberg has been a columnist for Card Player since 1989. He has written or edited many books about poker, and has also written extensively about computers. His crossword puzzles are syndicated in newspapers and appear online. Send angles, animadversions, and appeals to [email protected].