Mining Your Opponents’ Thoughts

Some players have tight hand ranges, making them easy to read. Good poker players know this, and adjust their strategies to prevent being read. But excellent poker players are also knowledgeable and intelligent. And while their hand ranges can be tough to read, their thoughts make logical sense based on their level of knowledge, and therefore can be read. Great players adjust their strategies based on their understanding of their opponents’ knowledge and thoughts. They make plays against experts that they wouldn’t make against weaker players.

In second position in an eight-handed $40-$80 limit hold’em game at Bellagio, I opened with a raise with the K♥ J♥. A woman tourist sitting immediately to my left called, as did another tourist on the button. Both tended to call raises with a wider-than-correct range of hands. Nonetheless, both probably held hands of reasonable quality. A local pro in the big blind, who is both knowledgeable and an excellent hand reader, tossed in the extra $40. We took the flop four-handed for $80 each.

The dealer flopped the 10♠ 7♥ 4♠, giving me two overcards and a three-flush. Mr. Local Pro checked to me, and I also knuckled. If I had bet, both players behind me would have called with any overcards, any draw, or any single pair, which was most of their ranges. And I wasn’t sure that even if I hit one of my overcards, it would be good. Since the tourists would flat-call with most of their ranges, my bet would leave me without much of a read on the turn, and I’d have a difficult decision to make if I blanked off, which was a situation that I wished to avoid. Checking also eliminated the possibility of being check-raised by Mr. Local Pro, a play that he often made. The two tourists checked behind me, and I was happy to get a free card.

The turn was the 4♥, pairing the board and giving me a flush draw to go with my two overcards. Mr. Local Pro led into the field. My decision was tricky. Folding wasn’t an option; I was either calling or semibluff-raising. I pondered my best play. A raise, if called, would reduce the price that the pot was laying me, but if I won the pot without improving, that would tickle me to no end.

Since Mr. Local Pro was a great hand reader and the field had checked around, I knew that he would read this situation as an excellent bluffing opportunity. And he isn’t one to miss many opportunities. But because he was a good hand reader, I also had to consider what he could read me for having, and fold to. Because I had checked the flop, if I raised, he would read my hand as being polarized. Either I had a huge hand or I was running a bluff. And I know that he knows I am capable of bluffing in these spots. If he had any semblance of a hand, he would pay me off, greatly reducing my chances of getting away with a bluff. Also, he might well read me for making a bluff-raise, and then three-bet bluff me, as he is one who commits to his reads and pulls the trigger.

That said, king high might be good enough to beat much of his bluffing range, and I read bluffs as being a large part of his range. I also might force out a better hand behind me, like ace high or a small pair, if I raised. Thinking the decision was close, I chose to raise, hoping that Mr. Local Pro would fold immediately. Unfortunately, he called.

But my situation was nothing a good card couldn’t get me out of, and the poker gods delivered the Q♥ on the river, filling my flush. With cards to come, it’s much stronger to be semibluffing with outs, the more the merrier, as you can always hit one of them when you get called. That said, you need to think through how the scenario will play out in all cases before determining if a semibluff is your best play.

Mr. Local Pro checked, I bet, and he paid me off, giving me a wry smile when I turned over my heart flush.

Yeah, I got lucky to win. In that scenario, I was going to have to beat Mr. Local Pro’s hand in order to drag the pot, and I was no favorite. I raised to win the scenarios in which he was bluffing with a draw worse than K-J high, or would fold, as I was not going to bet the river if he called my raise. Betting the river if I had missed would have been a poor-percentage bluff, because Mr. Local Pro had read me for having a polarized hand, and would have called with most of his range better than K-J high. And since I had to call one turn bet anyway, the extra chance of winning when he was bluffing cost me only the negative expectation on the extra $80 when called.

Even though that scenario was not one in which the turn bluff-raise was the best play, I still like it. I know that in other likely scenarios, I would have taken down the pot unimproved. I had read a good player’s thoughts and manufactured a play based on those thoughts. And when I am executing those types of plays, I know that my mind is on the game. I’m reading the situations, and thinking about how to best exploit them.

Of course, I wouldn’t have liked it nearly as much if I had missed. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.