To Follow Through or Not to Follow Through

It’s a $2-$5 pot-limit Omaha (PLO) game ($200-minimum/$1,500-maximum buy-in), and we are playing six-handed. I ($1,800) am dealt the J♠ J♣ 4♣ 4♦ in the big blind. My main opponent in this hand is my buddy Aaron, a maniac who has been playing virtually every hand, tends to draw a little loose after the flop, and has hit everything thus far in this session. Aaron also respects my play and is not a complete idiot, although he does have my first two books but hasn’t read them.

Preflop: The under-the-gun player (UTG) folds. Aaron ($3,200) opens with raise to $20, and only the button ($1,500) and I call.

Flop ($62): K♠ 10♦ 9♠

I have the J-J-X-X blockers to the nut straight, first to act in a three-way pot. This is a bit of a coin-toss situation: If the pot were heads up, I definitely should bet. If I were on the button and both players checked to me, I almost certainly should bet my blockers. Also, if I were the player in the middle and the first player checked, I almost certainly would bet the blockers.

Alternatively, if the pot were contested four ways, the play likely would be to check and give up the pot.

The problem with betting is what happens if I get called and the board pairs or flushes up. Should I continue betting? And on this board, it is pretty easy for somebody to have the straight, a set, the nut-flush draw, or some combination of draws.

I think it’s a close decision either way, although checking probably should get the slight edge, only because betting isn’t clear-cut.

Action: I bet $60. Aaron calls instantly, and the button folds.

Turn ($182): 3♣

The turn is the 3♣ — a blank. I bet $180, and Aaron calls instantly again. This brings us to the river.

River ($542): 6♠

The river is the 6♠, putting a possible flush out there. Now, here’s the question: Should I follow through and bet the river as if I hit the flush? Or, should I give Aaron credit for the flush, and check and give up the pot?

This is the problem with playing out of position; because I don’t get the benefit of having Aaron check to me on the river, I am forced to guess about his hand.

Let’s say that I bet. A half-pot bet has to make Aaron fold only 33 percent of the time in order to show a profit, while a bet of two-thirds of the pot has to work 40 percent of the time. And for the most part, Aaron either has the flush or he doesn’t, as he is not likely to call a bet without the flush. That said, if Aaron has the flush less than 60 percent to 67 percent of the time and will fold accordingly, a bet should be profitable.

The next question, then, is, how often does Aaron have a flush here? Does he have it 60 percent to 67 percent of the time or more?

Well, there are three legitimate types of hands that Aaron should have: a flush, a set, or a straight. Given the action, which one is he most likely to have? That is, with which hand is Aaron more likely to have called both the flop and the turn?

It is possible for Aaron to have the bare straight, but (a) I have two blockers, and (b) not everybody flat-calls with the bare nut straight, so the possibility of a straight seems a bit less likely. A set, on the other hand, is a distinct possibility. It is a little on the loose side to call two pot-sized bets, but not terribly loose, so I’ll give Aaron credit for that possibility.

A flush, however, seems like a much stronger possibility — not just because Aaron is on the loose side and might be willing to draw to non-nut flushes, but because it is relatively easy for him to have called two bets with some combo like a gutshot with the flush draw, or two pair with the flush draw.

How fast Aaron called two bets also has to be a consideration, because he has to know that I had the straight on the flop. Consequently, if all he had was two pair, he probably would have given it some thought. I’ve known Aaron for almost three years now, and while he might draw a little light, he doesn’t call stupidly.

Given both of my blockers and how easily Aaron called the first two bets, knowing that I probably had the straight, I am willing to give him credit for some type of flush. But do I feel 60 percent to 67 percent strong about that? Do I feel strong enough to check and give up the pot?

The real answer is that the problem with playing out of position is that I am forced to guess about Aaron’s hand, and the best solution is to simply avoid playing out of position in the first place.

In the actual hand, I checked. Aaron bet the full pot, and I folded. Aaron then said something about my having to have the best hand only one out of three times to make calling correct, which — while undeniably true — is logic that I absolutely abhor. But, that’s a topic for another day. ♠

Jeff Hwang is a semiprofessional player and author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha: Small Ball and Short-Handed Play. He is also a longtime contributor to the Motley Fool. His latest two books — Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha Volume II: LAG Play, and Volume III: The Short-Handed Workbook — were released in October 2010. You can check out his website at jeffhwang.com.